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When the unofficial Big Ten media poll was released, the choice of Ohio State as the conference's top team came as little shock, given the program's consistent top-10 finishes during the College Football Playoff era. The Buckeyes have not suffered a three-loss season since the days when a program could be decimated by a tattoo-related scandal, and under Ryan Day, they have never finished outside the top three in the Playoff Poll in any of his seven seasons as head coach. Yet, a deeper examination of the poll reveals a glaring omission: Ohio State's schedule is considerably more demanding than Indiana's.
The oddsmakers seem to have overlooked this discrepancy as well, with the Buckeyes sitting at +180 to win the Big Ten compared to Indiana's +310 on FanDuel. This disparity suggests that picking the Hoosiers is still considered a taboo choice, while the Buckeyes represent the safer consensus. However, even if one assumes Indiana will experience some regression after their historic 16-0 season—the first since Yale in 1894—the Buckeyes face an over/under of 9.5 regular-season wins against arguably the toughest schedule in the nation. While some may argue the SEC has tougher bottom-tier games, the focus here is on the Big Ten gauntlet that lies ahead for Ohio State.
Setting aside the non-conference clash with Texas, which is part of the win total but not the conference slate, the Buckeyes must travel to Iowa, Indiana, and USC—three teams with a combined regular-season win over/under of 26.5. These are not just projected numbers; these three squads all finished in the AP Top 25 and have gone a combined 39-5 at home over the last two seasons. Additionally, Ohio State hosts Oregon and Michigan, both of whom have defeated Day's team in the past two years. That totals five Big Ten games where the Buckeyes could realistically find themselves in jeopardy.
Key Analysis
In contrast, Indiana's schedule presents only three such potential trouble spots. The Hoosiers' toughest road games are at Nebraska, Michigan, and Washington. Nebraska is still searching for their first win against a ranked opponent since the Obama administration, so the focus shifts to Michigan and Washington, who are a combined 22-5 at home over the last two years. Even for a coaching staff like Indiana's—which has gone 27-2 overall, with both losses coming to national championship participants in 2024—those road trips cannot be taken lightly. Add the home game against Ohio State, and that brings the count to three.
The Ohio State-Indiana matchup will take place in Bloomington, where Cignetti has been nearly flawless, winning every game except one (against Michigan in 2024) by at least two touchdowns. While Indiana may not have faced a team as talented as this Julian Sayin-led Ohio State squad, the Hoosiers return multiple preseason All-Americans from a front seven that held the Buckeyes to just 58 yards on 26 carries in the Big Ten Championship. Although it is a new season, and Cignetti would be the first to acknowledge that, Buckeye fans might point to the addition of Arthur Smith as a play-caller as a sure upgrade over Brian Hartline, who left for USF after a disappointing end to the 2025 campaign.
However, it remains to be seen whether Smith can have the same impact as Matt Patricia did with Ohio State's historically great defense. That may be an unpopular opinion, but there are questions about Ohio State's coordinator situation, whereas Indiana is running it back with Broyles Award winner Bryant Haines and Mike Shanahan, who orchestrated an offense averaging 41.6 points per game. At the very least, that game is a coin flip, and Ohio State has to travel for it.
Perhaps the most uncomfortable truth for Ohio State is that they have not won a Big Ten Championship since 2020, and that title came under controversial circumstances when the COVID-shortened season led to rule changes that allowed the 5-0 Buckeyes to enter the conference title game instead of Indiana. Day's only undisputed championship came in 2019. Since then, coaches like Cignetti and Dan Lanning have won the conference more recently. While a national championship may be more prestigious, this discussion is about winning the Big Ten, which often hinges on the schedule draw in this era of unbalanced conference play.
Interestingly, Indiana is not even the pick to win the conference here; Oregon is, as they are expected to join Indiana and Ohio State as the next Big Ten national champion. Oregon's roster may have fewer questions than Indiana's, despite the 56-22 and 30-20 losses. But what seems fair to predict is that Ohio State's path to Indianapolis will be grueling, with minimal margin for error. If the Buckeyes do manage to end their Big Ten championship drought, it would be a significant achievement—but it should not be considered a consensus prediction.