theathleticuk
The Kansas City Chiefs 6-11 record in 2025 was certainly unexpected.
After entering the season with the fourth-best Super Bowl odds, K.C.
fell far short of expectations, as coach Andy Reid posted his first losing season with the Chiefs in 13 years.
We can at least say this: Some of the 6-11 record appears to be fluky.
The Chiefs, for instance, outscored their opponents by 34 points last season; since 2000, the three other teams with that same point differential finished with winning records, per TruMedia.
| Point differential | Record | | |---|---|---| 2017 Lions | Plus-34 | 9-7 | 2017 Seahawks | Plus-34 | 9-7 | 2023 Browns | Plus-34 | 11-5 | 2025 Chiefs | Plus-34 | 6-11 | That said, the team shouldnt completely shrug off the final results either, especially as it looks to maximize the prime of quarterback Patrick Mahomes career.
Advertisement So, how many of the Chiefs flaws seem likely to be problems again in 2026? And which ones, for lack of a better term, might be expected to improve with a little better luck? Lets take a closer look, drawing on NFL history as a guide.
Statement: The Chiefs should improve in clutch moments next season Verdict: Absolutely true.
We spent a lot of time last season discussing how the Chiefs trended toward being one of the most unclutch teams ever.
It all led to the most confounding part of 2025s collapse: a year after the Chiefs rode a 12-0 one-score record to a Super Bowl appearance, they finished 1-9 in one-score scenarios last season.
That latter mark was historic.
The Chiefs became just the second NFL team since 2000, per TruMedia, to have 10 one-score games and go 1-9 or worse.
And the other squad the 2014 Tampa Bay Buccaneers later faced accusations of tanking games that season to secure the No.
1 pick.
Some other clutch measures dont paint quite as bad a picture.
FTN Footballs 2026 Almanac had the Chiefs ranking 12th in offense and 20th in defense in late and close scenarios.
On third and fourth down, however, those numbers slipped to 23rd and 24th.
We could get deep into the weeds trying to evaluate whether the Chiefs can rebuild their confidence in big moments, or whether an emphasis on third-down defense might help cure some of the teams biggest woes.
Leaving this one generic, though, should be just fine.
ESPNs Bill Barnwell cited the research well in a 2017 piece, stating that, Historically, with precious few exceptions, teams will win games that are decided by seven points or less about 50 percent of the time.
(Barnwell used seven-point margins to compare previous eras of one-score games that didnt have two-point conversions available.) That data passes the common-sense test, too.
The Chiefs while still employing one of the best late-game quarterbacks of all time in Mahomes shouldnt be expected to completely forget how to perform in big moments as they did in 2025.
Advertisement History suggests that close-game winning percentage should trend closer to .500 next season.
And that alone would help push the Chiefs back toward playoff contention, if they maintain a similar level of play.
Statement: The Chiefs defense is due to create a lot more turnovers next season Verdict: Probably not true.
Its correct that turnovers have a huge impact on wins and losses and can be more random than many other statistics.
By now, though, we also have to say this about the Chiefs defense under coordinator Steve Spagnuolo: It hasnt tended to create havoc in the form of takeaways.
Some of that appears to be stylistic.
For one, the Chiefs rely heavily on man coverage, which allows for aggressive play but also puts defenders eyes on receivers rather than the quarterback.
That approach can create fewer interception opportunities, with a greater emphasis on forcing incompletions instead.
And on the defensive line? The Chiefs have tended to gravitate toward steady, stay-in-your-lane defensive ends like George Karlaftis rather than chaos-creating speed merchants (though that might change some after they selected R Mason Thomas in the second round).
The Chiefs recently low takeaway numbers then they had 14 last season, which tied for 26th in the NFL have lately started to look more like a trend than a blip.
K.C.s defense ranked 23rd, 26th, 14th and 26th in takeaways per play over the last four seasons and 27th overall.
This can reverse in a one-year sample, which is a positive.
Sometimes, other offenses hand you the ball more often.
The recent pattern here, though, makes a huge swing seem unlikely.
The Chiefs have finished top 10 in takeaways per play just once in Spagnuolos seven seasons as defensive coordinator, so a drastic turnaround would certainly be a welcome development ..
but not something the Chiefs should expect, either.
Statement: The Chiefs should expect better injury luck Verdict: Not as true as you think.
Yes, Mahomes season-ending injury was crushing, and multiple injuries at tackle last season only exacerbated the Chiefs offensive line issues as the team had to start third-stringers on both sides late in the year.
Advertisement Ultimately, though, the data said this about the 2025 Chiefs: They were healthier than an average NFL team.
In fact, according to the FTN Football Almanacs Adjusted Games Lost statistic, K.C.s defense was the least affected by injuries of any in the league.
Thinking back, the Chiefs were remarkably healthy on that side through the first 14 weeks, with the most notable exception being Karlaftis, who played with a broken hand.
On offense, receiver Xavier Worthy also played despite suffering a torn labrum in Week 1, which affected how the Chiefs used him.
Nevertheless, the Chiefs finished 16th in adjusted games lost on offense, leading FTN Almanac founder Aaron Schatz to say in a March piece, There are a number of reasons why the Chiefs saw their win-loss record collapse in 2025, but injuries are not to blame until you get to December.
Obviously, one of the biggest factors of the Chiefs upcoming season will be whether Mahomes can return healthy from his torn ACL and LCL.
Even knowing that, though, its an oversimplification to say K.C.
needs some better health breaks to return to form in 2026.
In actuality, the underperformance was despite a relatively healthy year at least early when the games still mattered.
Statement: The Chiefs special teams should expect to be about a point better per game without changing anything Verdict: True.
When I used to cover college basketball, one of the fun statistics to track was free-throw defense.
What percentage an opponent made against you had a major effect on a season yet was statistically considered almost completely out of the fouling teams control (How do you stop an opponent from making a free throw once its been awarded?).
The NFLs equivalent to this, Ive started to believe, is field-goal defense.
Though you cant do much to force another teams kicker to miss, those moments can have a large impact on wins and losses.
Advertisement This fact cited by Rivers McCown in FTNs Football Almanac is worth knowing: Kansas City had the worst luck in the league on opposing field goals, as the only miss was a 52-yarder by Buffalos Matt Prater in Week 9.
Though unlikely, Chiefs opponents made 31 of 32 field goals last season (97 percent).
Compare that to the 49ers, whose foes made 22 of 33 field goals (67 percent), and you can see how these quiet points add up quickly.
K.C.
also had one opponent extra-point miss last season, and that came in Week 3 when New York Giants punter Jamie Gillan had a low kick that Jack Cochrane blocked.
This all leads us to an FTN Almanac stat called Hidden Points.
Schatz defines this as special teams plays which are usually based on the performance of opponents without this team being able to control the outcome.
Last season, the Chiefs were worst in the NFL in this category (minus-15.8 points).
Put differently, the Chiefs lost about 0.93 points per game in this area, mostly because opposing kickers performed against them every week like peak Adam Vinatieri (the 49ers led the NFL at plus-29.6 points more than a 45-point edge on the Chiefs).
No, special teams coach Dave Toub shouldnt spend sleepless nights scheming up how to improve his teams field-goal defense for next season.
But in a league dominated by one-possession games, the Chiefs should be happy to know they can hope for 16 free points next season without needing to change a thing.