theathleticuk
WASHINGTON This was supposed to be another rebuilding season for the Washington Nationals, and with it, another July in which fans focus shifted not to the second half, but to the upcoming winter, spring and new season ahead.
But we should probably stop saying supposed to when it comes to this Nationals roster, because almost nothing has happened the way it was supposed to.
Advertisement The real, actual story of this second half is whether the Nationals can continue to make an improbable push toward October or, at the very least, open their window in 2027.
As they couple the sports highest-scoring offense with one of its worst run prevention units, three questions hang over a clubhouse that is trying its best to force Paul Tobonis hand out of the lets think long-term jar.
Will the Nationals trade CJ Abrams and others? There are still three weeks left before the MLB trade deadline, and almost nothing is entirely off the table for Washington.
In a sellers market, shortstop CJ Abrams could command a significant return that extends the teams contention window.
Every team needs starting pitching, and left-hander Foster Griffins ERA starts with a 2.
Infielder Luis Garcia Jr.
and outfielder Jacob Young provide very different kinds of value from one another, but both have been productive starters and have possible replacements in Triple-A Rochester.
Trading any of these players would signal to the fanbase that the team is not ready to compete in 2026, and dealing Abrams would make it harder to see a path to October in 2027.
Right now, FanGraphs has the teams postseason odds at 3.7 percent.
A sell-off is in play, and very well could be the right move.
And yet ..
It would turn the attention back to Washingtons farm system, rather than its big-league roster.
It would likely prevent the team from gaining the experience of playing meaningful games down the stretch.
And it could risk clubhouse dynamics, given how much buy-in has been required to get to this point (and how close Abrams and outfielder James Wood are with each other).
Can their stars maintain this production? This season, Wood and Abrams rank as the most and 11th-most valuable offensive weapons in the National League.
At this time last year, they ranked fifth and 14th.
And then, in the second half of 2025, their numbers cratered, ranking 69th and 75th among 84 qualified bats.
Advertisement The context has changed.
They are playing on a far more competitive team, with far better morale and much better lineup protection.
Both Wood and Abrams spent the offseason making sure that the issues that disrupted last years production for Wood, strengthening his lower half, and for Abrams, fixing his bat path and rotation were nipped in the bud.
Wood has been uber-consistent.
He followed his first abbreviated slump in late March with National League player of the week honors in early April, then followed his second abbreviated slump in late June by winning those honors again in early July.
Abrams has been a bit streakier, but has used meditation and better plate discipline to keep his season from spiraling.
If Wood can keep it up, the Nationals have an MVP candidate on their hands.
If Abrams remains on the roster and can keep it up, they either have a superstar or a player who will command a significant haul this winter.
What can be done about this pitching staff? The Nationals are on pace to shatter the single-season blown saves record.
Maybe they could cure that with a high-leverage arm.
They have certainly suggested, at times, that they will seek bullpen help from outside the organization.
But the problem runs deeper than one arm.
Twelve different pitchers have blown at least one save.
Washington has the highest ERA in MLB in both the eighth (6.49) and ninth (6.78) innings.
There are 177 pitchers in MLB (minimum 10 innings) with a Stuff+ grade of at least 104 which roughly translates to, there are 177 pitchers who are at least four percent nastier than the average MLB arm and the Nationals have none of them.
So while the issue is experience, it is also depth and development.
There are too many problems to fix in one season, but there has to be a way to make some progress.
Washingtons manager, Blake Butera, lost his voice in the teams final series of the first half, which he implied was a partial byproduct of the bullpens collapses.
Advertisement He tried three different methods to hold a late lead over the New York Yankees.
None of them worked.
Dating back to the offseason, if youre not going to give out major league deals for players youre going to decide to deploy your money elsewhere then you start to think, OK, how are you going to build it out? and there are only so many paths you can go down to do so, Toboni said.
That was the decision that we made.
And I obviously think a lot about that given how the current year has gone.
The bar isnt that high.
Orlando Ribalta and Clayton Beeter need to be a bit more reliable in high-leverage situations.
Riley Cornelio needs a bit more command.
Someone the Nationals pluck off waivers needs to help.
Someone needs to come up from the minor leagues and look like they belong in the teams future.
They need stars, but they dont need stars right now.
They just need stability.
And they need someone who can take the ball in the ninth without staring down at the mound or up at the sky, wondering where it all went awry.