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Good morning! Chris is off this week, but weve got familiar faces lined up to pinch hit.
Today: Conundrums: A deadline crossroads like no other One week from the MLB trade deadline, the Detroit Tigers are facing one of the toughest deadline decisions ever, in any sport.
Whatever they do could be a disaster.
Advertisement Tarik Skubal is one of the best pitchers of his generation.
The big lefty has won the last two American League Cy Young Awards.
He missed a month and a half earlier this season after having surgery for loose bodies in his elbow, but now the 29-year-old is back and looks like, well, Skubal.
His past two starts: 14 1/3 innings, 21 strikeouts, two walks, no homers, 1 run.
Hes also a free agent in a few months, and the Tigers at turns look like legit contenders and a team that will miss the postseason.
Theres a lot going on here: - The best pitchers in baseball will likely be worth somewhere between two and three wins above replacement in August and September.
That doesnt guarantee the Tigers would lose that much value by trading Skubal, because even the great ones are subject to injury risk and down stretches.
Skubal was worth 1.2 FanGraphs WAR from August onward last year, for example really good, but not a peak stretch for him.
- Still, its easy to see how subtracting Skubal could devastate the Tigers playoff hopes.
The AL Central is bad.
Entering yesterday, FanGraphs projected every team but the last-place Royals to finish between 79 and 82 wins.
Imagine if the Tigers trade Skubal, miss the playoffs narrowly and watch their former ace embark on a CC Sabathia-in-Milwaukee run (4.7 WAR in 17 starts in 2008, good gravy).
- The Tigers are 50-56, but theyve been one of the best teams in baseball since falling to 16 games under .500 on May 31.
Many of their key players are in their late 20s or early 30s.
Its not about a window, but quitting on this team wouldnt be easy.
FanGraphs pegged their playoff odds yesterday morning at 39.2 percent.
Every win or loss could tilt the decision in one direction.
(This includes yesterdays loss to the Royals, one of many bullpen failures the team has endured.) Skubal says this team can win it all.
- Plus, baseballs weird in short samples.
The Tigers sold at the deadline two years ago, trading starter Jack Flaherty (whos now back, but injured) to the eventual champion Dodgers, and then made the playoffs anyway.
Plus, they may well get a useful major leaguer or two in return for Skubal, muddying the wins calculation.
One more wrinkle: With an impending lockout, the sports economic structure could shift in big or small ways by next season.
Its a fascinating position for the team and for the pitcher, who appears comfortable being the main character of deadline season.
Teams and their soon-to-be-free agents have found themselves in similar situations many times, but the confluence of Skubals talent, the immediacy of his free agency, and the Tigers status on the border of contention makes this a real brain-buster.
For example, the Nationals got a ransom for Juan Soto in 2022, but he was still two and a half seasons from his free agency and they were ticketed for a rebuild.
Skubal wont bring back as much, and the opportunity cost of not having him for the next few months could be enormous.
More: Skubal isnt even the only Tigers pitcher in this boat: Casey Mize is there, too.
Plus: ranking possible Skubal destinations.
News to Know Pogacar wins record-tying fifth Tour He didnt win stage 21, but Tadej Pogacar wrapped up the big prize and became a five-time Tour de France champion yesterday, tying the record.
The days other huge story was Mathieu van der Poel, who won one of the most captivating final stages the Tour has ever seen.
After forming an alliance with Pogacar who put on a show even through the typically ceremonial last stage an exhausted van der Poel faced an onslaught in the final moments but hung on by a thread.
Advertisement More news - The Arizona Cardinals and their starting quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, had been in a rumbling contract dispute in the early days of training camp.
Thats now over, as the sides came together yesterday on a one-year, $15.5 million restructure of his deal.
- The Cavaliers agreed to sign European star Mario Hezonja, who had been a bench forward in the late 2010s for a handful of NBA teams.
LeBronsolation prize? - Speaking of: James deal with the Sixers is now official, the NBA said.
- The Utah Talons swept the Chicago Bandits to win the AUSL title for a second time in the softball leagues two years of existence.
Its a dynasty.
- Carlos Beltran, Jeff Kent and Andruw Jones joined the Baseball Hall of Fame.
- Lando Norris won Formula 1s Hungarian Grand Prix.
His McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri was furious after a collision with Williams Carlos Sainz, whom Piastri was in the process of lapping.
- The Marlins lost a team-record 12th straight game and may now be deadline sellers.
In other deadline developments, Mets starter Freddy Peralta said he had probably made his last start with the team, and As catcher and bandied-about trade chip Shea Langeliers went to the injured list with a torn meniscus.
- Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski had a historic outing.
Yes, again.
- Corey Heim, a 24-year-old NASCAR Cup Series part-timer, continued his stunning ascent by winning the crown-jewel Brickyard 400.
Thats two wins in five weeks.
- Gianni Infantino said critics of his leadership of FIFA are spreading hate.
OK.
Hi, My Name Is: The PGA Tours biggest breakout since ..
? Jackson Koivun won the 3M Open yesterday with a winning score of 25 under par at TPC Twin Cities.
On the one hand, sure, many of the PGA Tours best players took the week off after The Open Championship.
On the other hand, the runner-up, at -22, was world No.
1 Scottie Scheffler.
No one can claim the Auburn alum didnt beat anyone of consequence.
Koivun, 21, just turned pro this summer after one of the great careers in college golf history.
Even by todays standards, he hits the ball a mile and is capable of getting unusually dialed in with his irons.
(Watch this shot.) On a scale of 1 to Scottie, how excited should fans be? I asked our golf editor, Hugh Kellenberger, who answered like this: 8.25.
Weve seen too many phenoms get to the tour and burn out in recent years (shout-out to Nick Dunlap, who was the first amateur since Phil Mickelson to win and is now not ranked in the worlds top 350), but Koivuns poise and his touch around the greens feel different than most.
Im not saying he should be on the Ryder Cup team (yet), but how about a Presidents Cup? Lets stress-test this young man.
Yeah, golf might really have one here.
Watch Guide Streaming: Born to Bowl HBO Max Amid one of the years quietest weeks of nationally televised live sports, I recommend this five-episode miniseries that serves as bowlings answer to F1s Drive to Survive.
Its fun, with a heavy emphasis on rivalries, and adds up to under three hours across five episodes.
MLB: Guardians at Reds 7:10 p.m.
ET on ESPN The electric Chase Burns (2.42 ERA, 29 percent strikeout rate) faces one of the teams that would be most pleased if the Tigers moved Skubal before the deadline.
Pulse Picks Read Sabreena Merchants takeaways from a busy, revamped WNBA All-Star weekend.
Phenoms Advertisement A perfect offseason list: The Athletics hockey staff came together to identify the definitive on-ice villain for every team in the NHL.
I liked Chad Jennings and Tim Brittons analysis of a really fun baseball trade.
Most-clicked in yesterdays newsletter: Kerry Woods behind-the-back pitch for the Savannah Bananas.
Most-read on the website yesterday: The recap of the Tour de Frances thrilling last stage.
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