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BOSTON Washington Nationals president of baseball operations Paul Toboni did his job on Monday afternoon, which is to say he walked over to the visitors dugout at Fenway Park, let a camera shine in his face and suggested anything could be on the table at the Aug.
3 trade deadline.
I dont know what were going to be thinking a month from now, Toboni said.
It is worth believing him.
Advertisement After Mondays 6-3 loss to the Boston Red Sox, the Nationals are 43-43, one of nine teams separated by seven games in the National League wild-card race.
The projections suggest Washington wont play into October, but they once indicated this team wouldnt even sniff .500.
Look how that turned out.
While it may frustrate fans that Toboni made no concrete claims and offered many caveats, the Nats do not automatically fall in the sell bucket, and that, in and of itself, is progress.
With that, it feels like due time to lay out the case for the Nationals to take each of those avenues buy, sell, or something in between leaning on Tobonis thoughts.
The case for buying: An easy, low-cost fix This is a flawed roster, but its flaws are among the easiest to solve.
The bullpen has struggled, but there is enough talent to cover the middle innings.
Honestly, given the dearth of swing-and-miss on the roster, a sixth- or seventh-inning arm with some late-game experience on another roster could probably slot in as the Nationals closer.
If the bullpen had blown 15 games (still a bottom-10 figure in MLB) instead of 25 (by far the worst mark in the sport), you could argue that were talking about a contender.
Helping matters: Relievers are often the easiest commodity to find at the deadline.
One could also argue though I would not that there isnt as much need to augment the farm system via trades, because the player development group has shown that it can turn around a once-floundering system.
One could also argue and I probably would that this offense has produced over a long enough stretch that negative regression would be a shock.
Never mind that this is an emotional game.
Robots and equations do not swing bats or throw balls.
Would you want to sit there and explain to coaches and players that, after months of exceeding expectations thanks to tireless pregame work and good morale, the Nats are resetting again? Advertisement We just have an awesome, awesome set of people and players, and it just makes everyones jobs a lot easier when theyre willing to put in the work every day, Toboni said.
The case for selling: The odds are too overwhelming The Nationals current postseason odds sit around 5 percent, depending on your projection model of choice.
Even if their goal is just to get into the postseason, one-in-20 odds is about as clear a case as any that the club should not move off its plan to prioritize the future.
Mondays loss was a perfect case study.
Their rotation ERA ranks 20th, but outside of Cade Cavalli and Foster Griffin, they havent found a third starter who can give them length and production.
Miles Mikolas (5.44 ERA) allowed six runs to the Red Sox on Monday.
Zack Littell (5.29 ERA) pitches Tuesday.
The bullpen, an even greater issue, is more than two pieces away from being ready to handle October.
The hidden cost of holding pat or buying could be massive.
The deadline is always a sellers market even more than the offseason is, generally speaking with a congested field suggesting that selling could be even more valuable this year.
If the Nationals really wanted to shoot for upside and kick the can down the road, talented players with control (CJ Abrams, Curtis Mead, Jacob Young) could net a franchise-altering haul.
Abrams feels like a long shot to extend, given his potential earning value in free agency.
And if the window to true contention opens in 2027, the team shouldnt be in the business of pulling wins from future rosters that have a more legitimate chance to win the World Series.
Generally speaking, Toboni said, they will listen to offers on anybody.
They would be foolish not to.
Just about every team does.
Whether those conversations go anywhere is another story.
Advertisement The case for both There is a narrow path forward that rewards the current team for its play and adds prospects who can contribute to Nationals teams that have a better shot at winning the World Series.
The Nationals would suffer if they parted ways with outfielder Jacob Young and called up Christian Franklin, but it wouldnt kill their postseason odds.
It would hurt their chances if they traded Luis Garcia Jr.
and replaced him with Abimelec Ortiz or Yohandy Morales, but not dramatically so and Garcias contract could be considerably more expensive next season.
Its harder to make the case that they could trade Foster Griffin and still survive it odds are his departure would end their chance to make it to October but maybe theres a world where one of their internal options (say, lefty Jackson Kent, who is at Triple-A Rochester) is ready to fill in down the stretch.
Toboni said they like some internal options who could help solve the bullpen woes, but that doesnt mean they wont look outside the organization.
Still, he said, bullpen arms usually dont become available before the All-Star break.
If they did add, it could be a while.
This path feels like the most likely one the organization will take when evaluating the last three months of on-field play and behind-the-scenes conversations.
That is, if they can stay at or above .500 over the next few weeks.
I think all of us, all the different clubs, were constantly thinking about what it could look like if were on one side of it or the other, trying to thread the needle between the two, Toboni said.
But were not going to have clarity on any of that until we get closer.
So we havent thought through any sort of specificity at this point.