theathleticuk
If youre a Canadian hockey fan of a certain age, the phrase ghost roster might bring back some bad memories.
i Back in the late 90s, the concept of the ghost roster became popular with the various brain trusts who put together the countrys international teams.
The idea was that when it came to creating the perfect team, you dont just pick the 20 or so best players.
Instead, you first map out an ideal roster based on specific roles, and then you find the players who best fit that particular role.
Advertisement In theory, the concept makes sense.
In reality, and when followed to the extreme, it gets you Rob Zamuner over Mark Messier on Team Canada at an Olympics where they cant score.
For the record, Zamuner was a good player; maybe not a superstar, sure, but also not a bum.
But when hes cracking a Team Canada roster, its possible a GM somewhere has made a mistake.
Well, GMs making mistakes is what free agency is all about.
So today, lets borrow that fabled ghost roster concept and use it create an archetype lineup of some of historys worst free agency mistakes.
Well use all of NHL history, although the focus will be on the cap era because most of you arent old like me.
Well even see if we can find any candidates in this weeks action.
Will it be good? Eh.
Will it be expensive? Youd better believe it.
Here we go..
First line The star center, we think The player: As the name implies, this is the guy you sign and immediately slot into your top line.
Hes a legitimate star, one who probably falls short of the true Hart Trophy tier but slots in just below.
He can score, he drives play and hell be the key to your power play.
For very obvious reasons, teams will do just about anything to land this sort of player.
The problem: Its all but unheard-of for anyone even vaguely matching this description to actually make it free agency.
And when they do, they cost a fortune, making it difficult to squeeze any true value from a signing, even though it will generate plenty of excitement when its announced.
The prototype: Brad Richards, who signed with the Rangers for nine years and $60 million in 2011.
He lasted three years, topping out at 66 points, and then was bought out.
Has it ever worked?: John Tavares is probably the biggest name in this category, and as weve mentioned before, his stint in Toronto has been frustratingly hard to label one way or another.
Was he a bust? Not unless youre an Islanders fan.
Was the signing a success? It doesnt completely feel that way.
Recent examples: Pretty much none, which is the problem.
Advertisement The power wingers The players: Unlike at center, theres a reasonably solid history of splashy offensive wingers being worthy signings, with recent megadeals for guys like Jake Guentzel, Mitch Marner and Artemi Panarin working out fine.
But we obviously have to protect our new star center, so lets surround him with a pair of power wingers wholl bang and crash their way to victory.
The problem: By the time theyve made it to free agency, these guys have usually been banging and crashing for so long that theyre about to fall apart.
The prototype: Pretty much anyone from the free agency class of 2016 could work here, including Milan Lucic and Andrew Ladd.
Nathan Horton in Columbus comes to mind, as do names like Ryan Clowe, Martin Lapointe and Wayne Simmonds.
But I dont think theres any disputing that the king of the hill here is David Clarkson.
Has it ever worked?: I mean..
probably.
There are so many of these guys on the market every year that there must be a few that paid off.
Im just having trouble coming up with them.
Can we count Adam Graves way back when? Corey Perry has been a UFA for the last 47 straight seasons and a few of those deals have been fine.
Recent examples: Last years Tanner Jeannot deal got a rare D-rating on our signing grades.
Second line The middle-six center getting paid like a top-line guy The player: Hes fine.
Maybe better than that.
His numbers dont jump off the page, but theyre decent.
And hes good defensively, were told, even though some of the underlying numbers might suggest otherwise.
The problem: There are always plenty of teams in need of an elite center, and as we saw up above, there arent many of those guys who make it to market.
So whats a team to do? Easy talk themselves into overpaying for a guy whos vaguely looked the part, albeit in sheltered minutes.
Advertisement The prototype: We could argue over whether Scott Gomez or Chris Drury fits in this category, or maybe Detroit landing Stephen Weiss in 2013.
But I think this one might have to reach back to Bobby Holik getting a $9 million AAV from the Rangers.
Has it ever worked?: Some Flyers fans would point to Danny Briere as a success story here.
Recent examples: It sure looks like Chandler Stephenson is ready to claim a spot.
Elias Lindholm in Boston works too.
The old guy with name value The player: You know the name.
So focus on that, and not the recent stats, age or injury history.
The problem: Oh weird, it turns out its not ten years ago after all.
The prototype: It might be Steven Stamkos in Nashville, although he showed some of the old spark in year two.
Jarome Iginla in Colorado certainly qualifies.
Other examples would include Patrick Marleau in Toronto and Alexei Kovalev in Ottawa.
And of course, any of the four (!) teams that signed Jaromir Jagr after his comeback.
(But not Mark Messier in Vancouver, that was a good signing.) Has it ever worked?: I think it did for the Predators and Paul Kariya.
You could make a case for Peter Forsberg in Philadelphia too.
More recently, Joe Pavelski was worth the investment in Dallas.
And of course, pretty much the entire 2002 Red Wings roster.
Recent examples: Jonathan Toews with the Jets will probably be remembered this way.
Patrick Kane, Vladimir Tarasenko, Jamie Benn and Claude Giroux could all be in play here too.
The forever deal The player: We dont have these anymore, but we have to take a moment to recognize a classic UFA mistake from the not-so-distant past.
That would be the star-level forward who signs a contract at a surprisingly reasonable AAV.
The problem: The AAV is reasonable because the contract lasts until the sun explodes.
Advertisement The prototype: Ilya Kovalchuks 13-year deal with New Jersey, if only because the league approved it and then immediately punished the Devils for signing it.
Zach Parise in Minnesota gets an honorable mention.
Has it ever worked?: Every Blackhawks fan would do Marian Hossas 12-year deal again in a second.
Recent examples: None, thanks to the 2012 CBA that limited contracts to eight years.
Third line The guys who are really fourth-liners but are being cast as third-liners and paid like second-liners The player: There are so many of these guys were making an entire line out of them.
Everyone loves them and everyone wants them in their bottom six.
And in fact, you could probably slot them a little bit higher in the lineup than theyve been playing.
This will work out great, as long as a dozen other GMs dont have the exact same idea and end up in a frenzied bidding war over a guy who scored seven goals last year.
The problem: Repeat after me: Do not pay top dollar for depth on July 1.
On a day thats traditionally full of mistakes, this may be the biggest and most obvious one that GMs keep making.
The prototype: There are almost too many guys to name, although Im not sure anything will top Sean Avery in Dallas, where he lasted 23 games before being sent down to the AHL.
Honorable mention to Matt Beleskey in Boston.
Has it ever worked?: Clarke MacArthur in Ottawa, maybe? Hey, one out of several dozen aint bad.
Recent examples: Roughly 80 percent of the UFAs signed this week.
Fourth line The faceoff specialist The player: This one comes down to one question.
With the game on the line, can this guy win a crucial faceoff? He sure can.
The problem: OK, but can he do anything useful on either side of the puck afterwards? Look, we said one question.
The prototype: For a while it was Yanic Perreault and/or Manny Malhotra pretty much every year.
Jay Beagle in Vancouver was another classic.
Advertisement Has it ever worked?: Yes, in the sense that these guys do indeed win faceoffs, which is what theyre being paid to do.
Theyre just getting paid way too much.
Recent examples: Scott Laughton, Alex Kerfoot and Colton Sissons all did well this week.
The guy who had one big playoff run The player: His career numbers arent great, but if you watched his recent playoff run, you know youre getting a stud.
The problem: Even if you could identify certain players as being built for the playoffs, you have to actually get there for that to matter.
The prototype: With all due respect to Dave Bolland, this one has to be Ville Leino in Buffalo.
Has it ever worked?: Justin Williams didnt win a Stanley Cup in Washington or in his second stint in Carolina, but he scored his usual 20 goals a season well into his late 30s.
Recent examples: Sam Bennett could have been an all-timer here if hed left Florida last summer.
The enforcer The player: He possesses a very particular set of skills.
Skills he has acquired over a long career.
Skills that make him a nightmare for..
well, for your team, and if you cant beat him then maybe see if you can get him to join you.
The problem: While the enforcer role was especially well suited to a plug-and-play approach, most of these guys had a lot of miles on them by the time they hit the market.
The prototype: Troy Crowder cashing in with Detroit, then playing just seven games there due to injury.
Has it ever worked?: Bob Probert never looked quite right in Chicago, but he was still Bob Probert.
Recent examples: We could point to Ryan Reaves in Toronto, and maybe even Matt Martin before that, but this category is exceedingly rare these days.
First pair The certified stud The player: While rare, its occasionally the case that a legitimate Norris candidate makes it to free agency.
And when he does, just about every team lines up to throw money at him.
The problem: Its really, really tough to win a bidding war for a guy almost everyone wants.
Advertisement The prototype: If we can go back to early days of the cap, Wade Redden in New York has to take the title.
More recently, there was just no way that Ryan Suter could ever live up to his megadeal in Minnesota.
Has it ever worked?: You could argue that the two best UFA deals of the cap era were Boston getting Zdeno Chara and Anaheim landing Scott Niedermayer, although the latter took a bit of a discount to play with his brother.
Recent examples: I think youd have to go back to Alex Pietrangelo in Vegas, which worked out fine until age and injuries caught up to him.
The guy who isnt quite a stud but is close enough The player: The true superstar blueliners rarely make it to free agency.
All the more reason to squint a bit at the next tier and talk yourself into their potential.
The problem: Hes not as good as the certified stud, but the bidding might get just as crazy.
The prototype: Remember a few years ago when we all just decided that Dmitry Orlov was one of the best defensemen in the world? Has it ever worked?: You could argue Sergei Gonchar belongs in the true stud category, but Ill slip him in here just so we can point out that his 2005 signing with the Penguins worked out great.
(Ottawa a few years later, not so much.) Recent examples: Brandon Montour with Seattle a few years ago.
Second pair The guy with the bomb The player: This blueliner can score 20 goals from the point thanks to his booming shot.
And hell do it again, as long as he can shoot roughly 40 percent like he did in his contract year.
The problem: Shooting percentage doesnt tend to work that way.
And also, for reasons Im not completely clear on, a lot of these guys become injury-prone later in their careers.
The prototype: Sheldon Souray in Edmonton.
Has it ever worked?: You could argue Mike Green was fine in Detroit.
Advertisement Recent examples: Darren Raddysh has some obvious potential to be an all-timer here, although well have to see.
The guy who was a perfect fit on his old team The player: He was very good for a long time with a team that always seems to have a strong blue line.
The problem: Wait, if the team always has a strong blue line then maybe that has more to do with their system than whoops, too late, we just gave this guy a ton of money.
The prototype: Brady Skjei and/or Brett Pesce, who come to think of it may be the same guy.
Has it ever worked?: No.
And it never will.
Recent examples: Brett Pesce and/or Brady Skjei, whichever one we didnt use up above.
Third pair The guy who can hit The player: Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see this guy catch someone in the trolley tracks? The problem: At this price point, he can hit.
But given what youre paying, you might need him to do a bit more than that.
The prototype: Ed Jovanovski got big UFA paydays in Phoenix and Florida.
So did Darius Kasparaitis in New York.
Has it ever worked?: Scott Stevens was great in St.
Louis for a year before the Devils stole him.
Recent examples: At some point we might need to just name this category after Jacob Trouba.
That guy your uncle loves The player: Your uncle loves this guy because hes not fancy.
He knows how to cross-check guys in the back and chip pucks off the glass and out, and if you had six of them on the same roster that team would never give up a goal.
The problem: Is your uncle a professional scout? No? Ah.
The prototype: Almost too many to name, although we have to mention names like Karl Alzner and Jeff Finger.
(And theres also the rare guy who fits this description but who your uncle hates for some reason, i.e.
the Cody Ceci Paradox.) Has it ever worked?: You could make a case that Vladislav Gavrikov is basically this guy, and he was good last year in New York.
Recent examples: Your uncle cant believe nobody has signed Logan Stanley yet.
Goalies The old guy who used to be good The player: Hes old, and he wasnt very good last year.
But hes had success in the past, so this signing makes sense as long as he can randomly regain the form he had in his prime.
Pro athletes do that all the time, right? Advertisement The problem: You never know what youre going to get with a goalie, but once the big drop arrives, its usually here to stay.
The prototype: Ryan Miller in Vancouver.
Or was it Braden Holtby in Vancouver? Discuss amongst yourselves.
Has it ever worked?: Ed Belfour was great in Toronto, and Dominik Hasek worked well enough the second time through Detroit.
If youre looking for something in the last decade, though ..
oof.
Recent examples: Sergei Bobrosvky could absolutely end up here.
The guy who gets term The player: Maybe hes good, maybe hes just OK.
The point is your favorite teams GM just signed him to a five-year deal that should be fair value as long as he can stay consistent.
The problem: Other than goaltenders being the least consistent people in the universe, the plan sounds perfect.
The prototype: Its an admittedly crowded field, but Ilya Bryzgalov will never be topped.
Has it ever worked?: Bobrovskys Florida deal would have to slot in here.
And you could argue for the Flames and Jacob Markstrom too.
Recent examples: Jack Campbell in Edmonton, Philipp Grubauer in Seattle, Darcy Kuemper in Washington ..
these deals always work out great.
Besides, the rest of our team is so loaded well barely ever need to use our backup.