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Not that we needed another reason to hate math, but there are a lot of MLB folks who believe that run differential is one of the better indicators of a team; the Texas Rangers are a first place team with a run-differential that hurts the eyes.
Entering play on Sunday, July 12, MLBs first-place teams and their respective run differentials: NL West, Los Angeles Dodgers: +151 NL Central, Milwaukee Brewers: +135 NL East, Atlanta Braves: +91 AL East, Tampa Rays: +38 AL Central, Chicago White Sox: +27 AL West, Texas Rangers: -16 Analytics, making sports better since ..
still not sure.
At the same time in 2023, the Rangers were also in first place with a run differential of +148.
Different teams, and a different time.
At that juncture in 23, the Rangers ownership group was in a long run of empowering either president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and or Chris Young to improve the team, even if it meant adding to the payroll.
Now, the Rangers are less than a year removed from team owner Ray Davis telling Young that the team would have to improve from within, which is a cute way to we arent spending money.
The Rangers payroll ranks right in the middle of MLB, and the team is playing to that level.
The Rangers are in first place for three reasons the division is awful, they play hard, and they are exceeding in areas that were feared to be concerns.
If Davis is serious about winning, and wants to host some playoff games, he owes it to this club to allow Young to add a bat, and maybe an arm, before the trade deadline which would bump up the teams payroll.
Theyve earned the right to try to win.
The Rangers buying at the deadline hinges on this Injuries are always a delicate reason to explain a teams state, and both Young and Rangers first-year manager Skip Schumaker walk daily atop a taut razor wire with this subject.
The teams offense ranks 23rd in MLB in runs scored, and some of this is due to injury.
The team has been without All-Star shortstop Corey Seager and outfielder Wyatt Langford for more than half of this season.
Seager has played in 51 games, and Langford 43.
Seagers injury issues this season could fill the Internet, as are its own concern; it also impacts (hamstrings?) the entire franchise.
Hes again on the injured list with back issues, but the team is hopeful he will return shortly.
Seager in this lineup pushes the team into a different set of expectations.
Or it should.
If/when he returns, the Rangers have to plan on him producing, which has been a problem when he has played this season.
If they cant plan on him to produce, its time to explore dealing him.
Expectations for Langford should still be in the restrained, cautiously optimistic category.
With these two in the lineup and playing well the Rangers can win this division.
The risk of the Rangers doing nothing at the deadline This is not like the summer of 2024 when Young believed in his team so much he did little at the trade deadline; he felt like they had earned the right to prove they could make a push and earn a playoff spot.
They didnt, and he has the scars to prove it.
This American League West is so average the Rangers, Seattle Mariners or even the Houston Astros could win it with 85 victories.
Leaving spring training, one of the primary concerns for the Rangers was its bullpen, and halfway through the season this group ranks 10th in MLB.
The evolution of Jacob Latz from hopeful starter to All-Star closer is one of those from-heaven developments all good teams need.
The Rangers are pitching well enough that the ownership group should lean into a team that is over achieving.
To sit still now would send a terrible message to a clubhouse full of pros, all of whom know the score.
They are good enough to try to make a push for an attainable division title.
The current Rangers are one of those teams that dont make a lot of sense, but theyre in first place, and it would be a waste not to capitalize on the circumstances, even if a few of them defy the stat nerds.
If the Rangers do nothing, it will not be a case of management believing in the group, but rather ownership that doesnt want to spend the money.