newsweek
The Texas Longhorns' playoff aspirations suffered a significant blow over the weekend with a 27-24 home loss to unranked Florida. This defeat marked the team's second consecutive close loss, following a setback to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.
After opening the season 4-0, including a statement win over then-No. 1 Ohio State, Texas has now dropped two straight games. The Florida loss is particularly concerning because the Gators were without their starting quarterback and top wide receiver, and Arch Manning once again played a role in the defeat. Manning completed 14 of 20 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown but also committed a late fumble that dashed any hopes of a comeback.
The impact on Texas's College Football Playoff odds has been immediate. According to Polymarket, the Longhorns' chances of making the CFP have plummeted to just 36%, down from over 70% before the Florida game.
Texas's undefeated start included victories over Ohio State and at then-No. 14 Tennessee, along with dominant wins over Texas State and UTSA. However, the recent slide has been costly. The Longhorns now sit at 4-2 overall and 1-2 in SEC play, falling to No. 19 in the AP Top 25 after previously reaching No. 1.
Two losses might not seem catastrophic, but falling to unranked conference opponents is a tough look for Steve Sarkisian and his team. What makes their CFP outlook particularly bleak is that their remaining schedule leaves no room for error. They will host No. 7 Ole Miss on Saturday, a 5-1 team riding back-to-back victories, followed by Mississippi State and then Missouri on the road. After that comes a trip to LSU, a home game against Arkansas, and a road matchup at Texas A&M.
Five of their last six games will come against SEC teams with winning records, and three will be on the road. With a very real possibility that even one more loss could end their season, it's easy to see why the Florida game was so damaging.
Key Analysis
If Texas misses the 12-team playoff, the fallout could be significant. Sarkisian and Manning were already under pressure heading into the season, and expectations were sky-high given the talent on the roster. Failing to recover from back-to-back losses and reach the CFP would be a difficult outcome for the program to overcome.
Originally reported by newsweek.