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As the Detroit Lions rest during their bye week with a 3-2 record, they find themselves with ground to make up in the NFC North. However, a fresh statistical analysis suggests that Detroit may hold a substantial edge over the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings for the rest of the 2026 season.
According to an October 13 graphic from GridironInfo, which utilizes data from nflverse, the Lions have the easiest remaining schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL, measured by average offensive Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play). Meanwhile, the Vikings and Packers are positioned at the opposite end of the spectrum.
For a Detroit defense that has dealt with injuries and uneven play, this disparity could prove pivotal in the battle for the NFC North title.
Lions Boast NFL's Most Favorable Offensive Schedule
The graphic calculates the average offensive EPA/play of each team's remaining opponents. A higher figure signifies more efficient opposing offenses, while a lower figure indicates less productive attacks. Entering Week 6, the NFC North shapes up as follows: the Minnesota Vikings face the toughest remaining slate with an opponents' average offensive EPA/play of +0.076 (ranked 1st), followed by the Green Bay Packers at +0.063 (2nd), the Chicago Bears at +0.018 (10th), and the Detroit Lions at -0.045 (32nd).
This gap is striking. Minnesota and Green Bay are set to face some of the league's most potent offenses, while Detroit's upcoming opponents have been significantly less efficient. It's important to note that this metric doesn't account for opposing defenses, potential injuries, or future performance changes, so it doesn't guarantee the easiest overall schedule. Nonetheless, it hints that Detroit's defense could enjoy more favorable matchups over the final 12 games.
Potential Impact on the NFC North Race
Detroit enters the bye week two games behind the undefeated Vikings, with the Packers and Bears also at 3-2. The Lions have six divisional games remaining, including home contests against Green Bay on October 25 and Minnesota on November 1. Those matchups could shake up the standings well before Thanksgiving.
Detroit's remaining schedule also features games against Miami, New England, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Tennessee, and the New York Giants. While none are guaranteed wins, several could allow the defense to build confidence and consistency. However, the full 2026 slate reveals a challenging closing stretch with road games at Minnesota, Chicago, and Green Bay. So while the schedule may be statistically favorable, the Lions must still win critical head-to-head battles to capitalize.
Defense Poised to Benefit
The most promising aspect of these numbers is what they could mean for defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard. Detroit struggled against opposing passing attacks early in the season, especially with injuries in the secondary. Yet the Lions showed marked improvement in Sunday's 45-21 win over Arizona, recording 20 sacks through five games—a franchise first. The potential return of Brian Branch, possibly targeting the Green Bay matchup, could further bolster the secondary as the divisional schedule heats up.
Combining an improved defense with a favorable slate of opposing offenses could set Detroit up for a significant winning streak. Of course, the Lions must still execute better and avoid the defensive lapses that have plagued them early on.
A Real Opportunity, But Challenges Remain
One reason for caution: Minnesota is already 5-0 and has proven it can win in various ways. A favorable schedule doesn't erase a two-game deficit, especially with six divisional games left. Still, the data offers legitimate hope. While the Vikings and Packers prepare to face some of the NFL's most efficient offenses, Detroit's defense will encounter the league's least productive remaining group by this measure. That could lead to fewer points allowed, better field position, and more chances for Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and the offense to control games.
The NFC North won't be handed to Detroit, but this new data suggests the Lions may have a much smoother path back to the top than their current record indicates.
Originally reported by yahoo.