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This World Cup in North America has been, by most measures, a real success.
Part of what has made the early stages so exciting was the expanded field.
This World Cup has 48 teams, up from the 32 that had been in place since 1998.
There were concerns about a negative impact of expansion on game quality and a view that it was just a money grab, but the games have largely been thrilling.
Is this tournament proof that the College Football Playoff should expand, too? Advertisement The CFP just wrapped up its second 12-team season, but the Big Ten is leading a push for expansion to 24.
Other conferences are on board, but the SEC holds one of two votes in the matter, and commissioner Greg Sankey isnt behind it right now.
Ive long argued that college football is Americas closest sport to international soccer.
From the organizational structure to the cultural fandoms, the similarities are vast.
So with the World Cups dramatic Round of 32 completed, does mean the CFP should also expand? Ive found reasons in this World Cup for and against CFP expansion, along with some key differences well get to at the end.
Why the World Cup shows the CFP should expand Expanded access really means something: Four countries made their World Cup debut, including Cinderella darling Cape Verde.
That itself was worth celebrating, and watching the world learn more about places like Cape Verde, Curacao and Democratic Republic of the Congo is meaningful.
This is supposed to be the worlds tournament, so it makes sense to have more of the world.
Over the past two years, 10 college football teams have made their first Playoff appearance, eight of which wouldve missed in the four-team field.
Expanding to 24 would give even more schools the ability to reach that stage and get a national spotlight.
More upsets: The Round of 32 was far more exciting than anyone expected.
Of the 16 games, 12 were decided in the 86th minute or later, including three on penalty kicks.
Cape Verde took defending champion Argentina to the limit.
Paraguay knocked out Germany.
England nearly lost to DR Congo and Belgium needed a furious comeback to beat Senegal.
It turned out the teams added to the expanded tournament werent much different in quality than the previous cutoff line.
In college football, the NIL era has shrunk the gap between the top teams and the next tier of programs.
Miami went from the last at-large berth to the national championship game.
An expanded field could lead to even more upset runs like that.
Advertisement The best teams are protected early: Only a handful of teams have a real chance of winning the World Cup.
Just eight countries have won the 23 tournaments.
The expanded field meant favorites France, Argentina, Spain and Brazil could cruise into the knockout stage without fear, and some got favorable Round of 32 matchups by playing third-place group teams.
If the CFP expands to 24 teams, multiple bye weeks are possible.
The teams ranked highest would still likely be protected, and they could get a home game.
Why the World Cup shows the CFP should NOT expand Some games didnt mean anything: The United States started most of its backups in its third group stage game against Turkey, knowing it had already won the group and Turkey was already eliminated.
Norway sat its starters against France despite having the opportunity to win the group.
Other group games for top teams didnt mean much because two-thirds of the field advanced to the Round of 32.
We already see this in the NFL regular season, where teams play backups if a playoff spot is already locked up.
Im not one who believes Michigan would rest starters against Ohio State, as Rivalry Week is a key backstop, but something similar is a real concern that Sankey has expressed.
Average play is rewarded: Eleven teams advanced to the knockout stage by earning just four of a possible nine points in group stage play, compared to only three such teams in the smaller field in 2022.
Thats because seven teams advanced with third-place group finishes.
Senegal also advanced with three points as a third-place team.
(Cape Verde had three points from three draws but finished second in its group.) In college football last year, an 8-4 Iowa team that had no notable wins wouldve qualified for a 24-team playoff.
Tennessee wouldve been in the mix late at 8-3 despite not beating a team with a winning record.
There are teams with seemingly no shot of winning the national title that also may not view making a 24-team playoff as a major accomplishment.
Advertisement Will making the field mean as much in the future? Brazil is the only country to play in every World Cup.
An expanded field means it likely will never miss one.
The U.S.
missed in 2018, but an expanded field means future qualification drama isnt likely to happen.
Many countries made their first World Cup in decades.
Will it feel different when its more normal? Ohio State will rarely, if ever, miss a 24-team CFP (its finished outside the AP top 20 once in the past 24 seasons).
What will it mean for the college football regular season if four losses can still get a team into the Playoff? Key differences between the World Cup and the CFP With discussing both cases, some context is needed.
The first major difference is that soccer is a much different on-field sport than American football.
A lower-scoring sport makes for less variance, with less catching up required.
Cape Verde, without a player who would start for Spain or Argentina, can tie both in regulation time.
Tulane and James Madison were not particularly close in their CFP games last season.
Upsets happen in college football, but they are less likely, especially in the transfer portal era.
Plus, a game cant end in a tie.
Cape Verde did not actually win a game at the World Cup, after all.
The second and most important difference is that the World Cup has automatic qualifiers by region.
Its not the 48 highest-ranked teams that make it.
Each continent has an unequal set number of spots.
This year, Europe got 16, Africa got nine and South America got six, for example.
The addition of 16 teams didnt mean 16 more European teams.
The new spots were shared across each continent.
Europe got three more, but Africa got four more.
Thats not what a 24-team CFP would do.
Expansion would add teams solely through rankings that favor the Power 4 especially the SEC and Big Ten.
More spots for the leagues that already get the most spots, including teams that wont merely be happy by just making it in.
The Big Ten did propose a 16-team field with unequal AQs for conferences more than a year ago.
I wrote at the time how similar it was to the UEFA Champions League, but it didnt garner any support, even from some leagues it might have benefitted.
Advertisement A third key difference is that the World Cup is only every four years.
It will always feel special because of that scarcity, even for the teams that always make it.
The CFP is not that.
Penn State fired James Franklin less than a year after reaching a semifinal because it had national title expectations but lost its first three Big Ten games.
So what does the World Cup say about college football? As Cape Verde nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets in sports history against Argentina on Friday night, I thought about college football, and how many people in charge dont want something like Cape Verde to happen.
But also, how many fans wouldnt have wanted 67th-ranked Cape Verde to be here in the first place.
The NCAA basketball tournaments are set to expand and add more big-conference teams through at-large berths, while forcing the small-school 16-seeds and 15-seeds to eliminate each other before the main 64-team tournament.
In football, many fans argue against the inclusion of teams from Group of 6 conferences and spend so much time putting everyone else down.
The World Cup and CFP are ultimately different events for different sports.
The World Cup is a showcase.
Its meant to celebrate the world.
Theres a collective understanding that everyone should be involved.
If that means a top-10 ranked Italy misses out and Cape Verde gets in, thats Italys fault.
College football used to be more situated for this, when it was a regional sport with relatively equal competitiveness.
America loved 2006 Boise State.
Conference realignment, unequal revenue and the transfer portal have chipped away at that.
So did the creation of the CFP, when suddenly a non-power team would take a valuable spot from someone else in a bigger league.
Now what matters most is whoever is viewed to be the best, through all the arguing and ranking.
Whether or not you want a 24-team College Football Playoff depends on whats most important in the sport to you what happens at the end, or the journey there.
Either way, this World Cup has been a nice reminder of why we love sports in the first place.
The pride, the respect of competition and the understanding of the bigger picture.
Theres a lot more worth celebrating in college football than just who holds the trophy at the end.