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While the expansion of the College Football Playoff certainly widened the margin, dont get it twisted: there is little room for error for any playoff team.
That is no different for the LSU Tigers as they enter the Lane Kiffin era.
Just ask the 51-year-old coach himself.
He has been a head coach since 2017 (in the playoff era), and it wasnt until last season that he managed to guide a team into a playoff spot.
Now, granted, all but two of those eight seasons as a head coach were during the four-team era.
But still, even with eight more teams now getting in, Kiffin has experienced being on the edge.
Back in 2024, the Rebels captured arguably their biggest win of the Kiffin era, knocking off then No.
3 Georgia in Oxford 28-10.
Ole Misss playoff candidacy looked all but clinched with an 8-2 record heading into the final two regular-season games.
Yet, the Rebels playoff berth quickly vanished as they followed up that marquee win over Georgia with a 24-17 loss to Florida in the Swamp, and just like that, the Rebels were relegated from a CFP berth to a spot in the Taxslayer Gator Bowl.
What Game Could Ruin the Tigers CFP Berth? LSUs schedule was not too kind in terms of difficulty.
The Tigers open with a marquee non-conference game versus Clemson before opening SEC play with the highly anticipated road trip to Oxford to face Kiffins former team, Ole Miss.
A week later, the Tigers will welcome Texas A&M.
Fast forward later in the season, and the Tigers will host Alabama and Texas in back-to-back weeks.
All of those games could be the nail in the proverbial coffin.
In some ways, the Tigers could become victims to the same thing that doomed Texas last season: a tough non-conference season-opener.
Say what you will about Clemson, who, like LSU, is also fresh off a disappointing season, they wont be a pushover to start the season.
Especially considering all the elements involved, as Kiffin and his staff will immediately face a marquee opponent.
Not to mention there will be little margin for error from a team that will largely depend on its 43-player transfer portal class.
How quickly will Kiffins offense find its rhythm? Is starting quarterback Sam Leavitt still figuring things out after missing spring? Can the offensive line find the necessary cohesion to protect Leavitt and pave the way for a run game? How about Blake Bakers defense? What will that look like with new pieces? LSU is jumping straight into the deep end of the pool without a life vest to keep them afloat.
No matter how well the Tigers look as they progress throughout the year, the difference between two losses and three losses is the difference between hosting a home playoff game and playing in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Lose early in the season, even if it is too a ranked non-conference opponent like Clemson, that could be all she wrote come selection Sunday if the number in the loss column is more than two.
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