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For the past four seasons, the refrain has been the same: this will be Scoot Henderson's breakout year with the Portland Trail Blazers. Yet, the anticipated leap has yet to materialize, leaving analysts and fans alike wondering when the talented guard will finally put it all together.
A prime example came in the Blazers' most impressive win of the season—a road victory over the Los Angeles Lakers. The national television spotlight seemed tailor-made for a statement performance. Henderson checked in late in the first quarter, and within 83 seconds, a pivotal play unfolded. He drove into the lane, executed a sharp pump fake to freeze his defender, and drew the Lakers' big man, Walker Kessler, toward him. Instead of taking the shot or dishing to Robert Williams III, Henderson kicked the ball out to Toumani Camara in the corner. It was a sound decision, given Camara's recent success from beyond the arc, but the pass sailed a full foot wide of its target.
That sequence encapsulated Henderson's night: he finished with just two points on 0-for-3 shooting, three assists, and a game-high five turnovers in 17 minutes. It was a forgettable outing that mirrored his underwhelming start to the season. Despite a stellar preseason in which he was named training camp MVP by veteran Jrue Holiday, Henderson has posted career lows in minutes (21.2), points (8.1), assists (1.4), rebounds (2.4), field goal percentage (34.9), and three-point percentage (14.3) through the first five games.
"I feel like it's been a slow start, but I'm not gonna back down from the challenge," Henderson said after a win against Utah. "Just have to continue to be the best version of myself every night."
While five games is a small sample size, the concerns surrounding Henderson have always centered on consistency and decision-making. Many of his errors stem from playing too fast and out of control, a flaw that has plagued him since his rookie year. Head coach Micah Nori offered simple advice before the Utah game: "Just don't overthink. Just keep things simple."
Indeed, Henderson's best moments have come when he operates off the ball in a simplified role. As the primary ball-handler, he often forces passes and takes questionable shots. "We don't need him to orchestrate everything for everybody else," Nori explained. "He's out there with Deni [Avdija]. He's out there with Dame [Lillard]. Those guys know how to play, and we just want to keep things simple."
Even if Henderson's ideal role is as a secondary playmaker, the results on the court must improve. Front offices and coaching staffs base their evaluations on production, not hypotheticals. Henderson was the only top-five pick in the 2023 NBA Draft class not to receive a rookie-scale extension, and he will enter restricted free agency next summer. While he has shrugged off the contract situation publicly, it likely weighs on his mind.
Nori, however, remains steadfast in his support, especially with Ja Morant sidelined by injury. "We're going to need him for the next 82 or 78, whatever we have left," Nori said. "We're going to make sure that we continue to trust in him and keep putting him out there, and he's going to win a lot of ball games for us."
Veteran Guidance
If anyone can relate to Henderson's journey, it's his locker mate, Damian Lillard. Drafted at 22, Lillard faced skepticism about his age and small-school background before unanimously winning Rookie of the Year in 2013. Now, at the same age but four years into his career, Henderson has an advantage Lillard didn't: experience. "Each year that you come back, the game slows down," Lillard said. "You understand it better. You see where you could improve. I think this year, especially in September training camp, he's figured that part out."
Lillard also highlighted Henderson's self-imposed pressure. "I think that's something that shows care," Lillard noted. "You have some young players that go the opposite way, they get real relaxed. It's better in the NBA to be aggressive and show care than to go the other way. And I think that's what Scoot is doing."
Even at his peak, Lillard struggled with ball security, averaging 3.2 turnovers per game in his fourth season. He believes Henderson will improve with time. "Eventually he'll settle in and the pace will get better," Lillard added. "He'll see, 'All right, I need to move, pass it here. I can slow down here,' and that's the part that takes time."
Lillard's advice carries extra weight given the history between the two. Rumors once suggested Lillard parted ways with Portland because the front office chose to draft Henderson instead of trading the pick. Yet Lillard insists he always supported the young guard. "I always liked Scoot. Even at that time, I made it clear," he said.
Time for a Turnaround
It's easy to overreact to a rough patch early in the season, but Henderson is still young and developing. At 22, he already has playoff experience, including a 31-point outburst against the San Antonio Spurs. Injuries and a crowded backcourt have limited his opportunities, but if he follows Lillard's advice and embraces a simplified role, he can thrive in Portland's system.
Henderson's success would not only boost the Blazers' playoff aspirations but also enhance his case for a lucrative contract. The potential is there—now it's about putting it all together. Will this finally be the year he silences the doubters, or will the wait continue? Only time will tell.