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The offseason is underway, and the Kansas City Royals have several decisions to make in the coming weeks. One move that should be near the top of their list is securing right-hander Randy Dobnak for the 2027 season.
Dobnak, who enjoyed one of his most productive major-league stints with the Royals in 2026, represents an affordable depth piece for the pitching staff. The 2026 campaign saw him set a career high with 74.1 innings pitched while registering a 3.51 ERA, and he emerged as one of the club's more reliable starters in the second half.
While Dobnak's profile is far from flawless, his second-half performance makes a compelling case for a return. According to advanced metrics, his Baseball Savant page is mostly light blue, indicating below-average results in many areas. However, he excels in three key categories: inducing ground balls, limiting home runs, and preventing barrels. Opposing hitters put the ball on the ground 51.2% of the time against him, hit just 0.85 home runs per nine innings, and barreled him at a mere 4.6% rate—all strong marks.
Beyond those three strengths, Dobnak grades out as league average or worse in most other metrics. He lacks overpowering stuff, but his pitch-to-contact approach is precisely what makes him a valuable depth arm. A deeper look at his run value chart reinforces this: his sinker, while technically his best pitch by results (value of 5), was still hit at a .302 average and slugged at .413, suggesting that when the ball wasn't on the ground, it often found grass. His sweeper limited batters to a .222 average but allowed a .511 slugging percentage.
Dobnak's repertoire is designed to do one thing well: generate ground balls. In fact, four of his five pitches—sinker, changeup, slider, and four-seamer—feature similar movement patterns. His four-seamer behaves more like a two-seamer with extra rise, his changeup is essentially a slower sinker with more drop, and his slider acts as a second changeup with different observed spin. The slider and sweeper combo is particularly intriguing: both show similar spin-based movement (7:00 for the slider, 7:45 for the sweeper), but their observed movements diverge significantly (5:00 vs. 8:15), adding a layer of deception that could be a focus for offseason refinement.
Arbitration and Contract Outlook
If the Royals decide to retain Dobnak, it will likely be through arbitration. He earned $622,727 during his time with the Royals, and projections for his 2027 salary vary. Spotrac estimates his arbitration value at around $2.5 million—the third-highest on the team—while MLB Trade Rumors projects $2.3 million. However, because Dobnak signed a five-year deal with Minnesota that bought out his arbitration years, 2027 will be his first arbitration-eligible season. Just Baseball projects a $900K salary if the case reaches arbitration. Given the complexities, the Royals will likely pursue a pre-tender contract in the $2.0 million range.
Conclusion
Bringing back Dobnak seems like a no-brainer for Kansas City. He delivered arguably the best season of his career in 2026, possesses an extreme but effective profile, and offers experience both as a starter and reliever. The Royals learned last season that depth—especially in the rotation—is crucial, and Dobnak provides exactly that at a reasonable cost.