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As the Houston Rockets gear up for the 2026-27 campaign, all eyes are on their performance in the first 10 games, a stretch that could significantly shape their standing in the Western Conference by mid-November. The team's schedule includes matchups against the Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, Atlanta Hawks, Milwaukee Bucks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Phoenix Suns.
Among these opponents, the Mavericks, Suns, Hawks, and Bucks are all vying to prove they belong in the playoff picture, while the Celtics and Timberwolves appear to be on a similar competitive tier as the Rockets. The Spurs, reigning Western Conference champions, and the Thunder stand out as the only true powerhouses in this early gauntlet.
Houston's on-court chemistry should benefit from another year of development for Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, and Amen Thompson, even as Fred VanVleet's return alters the team's dynamics. Preseason performances have given no cause for concern, and analysts project a 6-4 record over the first 10 games.
The Rockets are expected to be favored in most of these contests, though the back-to-back sets could pose challenges. Head coach Ime Udoka is likely to exercise caution with VanVleet as he works his way back from injury.
Key Analysis
OnSi writers weighed in with their predictions. Austin Dobbins noted that while the schedule's strength is average, tough tests against the Thunder, Spurs, Celtics, and Timberwolves await. He pointed out that Houston faces inferior opponents in Dallas (twice), Milwaukee, and Phoenix, plus two games against Atlanta, and predicted a 6-4 start. Dobbins emphasized that a playoff series win is a must this year, and a strong opening would put them on the right track, especially if they can compete with the West's elite.
Ethan J. Skolnick echoed the 6-4 prediction, stressing the importance of testing themselves early while healthy. He highlighted the need to split games against San Antonio, Boston, Oklahoma City, and Minnesota, and to capitalize against Dallas and Milwaukee. Skolnick also flagged the two games versus Atlanta as potential trap games, given the Hawks' late-season surge last year. He suggested that a 7-3 start could fuel growing optimism, but a 6-4 mark would be acceptable if Houston shows it can hang with the top teams in the West.
Skolnick further dismissed the notion of a clear separation between the Thunder, Spurs, and Rockets, noting that Houston invested in its young core and acquired Kevin Durant precisely to avoid finishing a distant third. The first 10 games will be an early referendum on those ambitions.