yahoo
The Washington Wizards will host the Houston Rockets at Capital One Arena on Sunday, Nov. 15, with tipoff set for 7:00 p.m. ET. The Wizards sit 12th in the Eastern Conference with a 4-9 record and are mired in a six-game losing streak. They nearly snapped that skid on Thursday against the Detroit Pistons but fell 144-140 in double overtime. Meanwhile, the Rockets are third in the Western Conference at 10-3 and have won three consecutive games, most recently a 125-118 victory over the Utah Jazz in NBA Cup action. Alperen Sengun powered Houston with 43 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists on 17-of-24 shooting.
Washington has the size to challenge Sengun, but it must also contain the players around him.
Injury Report
Wizards: Alex Sarr (illness) is questionable; Tre Johnson (lower back soreness) is questionable; Bub Carrington (chest contusion) is questionable; Tristan Vukcevic (hip) is out; Reece Beekman (AC joint) is out; Justin Champagnie (foot) is out; Jamir Watkins (ACL) is out.
Rockets: Steven Adams (calf) is probable; Clint Capela (ankle) is out; Fred VanVleet (knee injury management) is out; Marcus Smart (league suspension) is out.
Why the Wizards Have the Advantage
Washington ranks 26th in offensive rating (108.7), 19th in defensive rating (114.3), and 23rd in net rating (minus-5.5). The team averages 110.0 points per game but has a reliable way to score when jumpers aren't falling: it makes 20.4 free throws per game, 10th in the league. Attacking the paint early could get the Wizards into the bonus and test Houston's center depth with Capela sidelined. Anthony Davis has been Washington's most consistent performer, averaging 25.6 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 2.0 assists while shooting 52.4% from the field. Trae Young contributes 19.7 points and 8.8 assists, though he's shooting just 39.3% from the field and 31.5% from three. The Wizards should leverage pick-and-roll actions with Davis and Young to force Houston into difficult decisions. Young can find Davis on the roll, and if a defender rotates early, he can kick out to Kyshawn George on the perimeter. Washington also ranks 10th in defensive rebounds (32.4 per game) and ninth in blocks (5.3). If Sarr plays, the Wizards can assign Davis to Sengun and still have another big near the rim to contest cutters and clean up misses, allowing them to defend Houston without pulling a wing away from a shooter.
Why the Rockets Have the Advantage
Houston ranks third in offensive rating (119.3), eighth in defensive rating (110.2), and fourth in net rating (+9.1). The Rockets shoot 47.8% from the field and 37.2% from three, and their 13.2 offensive rebounds per game provide second-chance scoring opportunities. Washington can defend well for most of a possession and still surrender points if it fails to secure the rebound. Sengun averages 23.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 7.6 assists while shooting 54.4% from the floor and 45.8% from three. Davis can make him work for his points, but Sengun can also initiate offense from the elbow. If the Wizards stay home on Houston's shooters, he can find cutters or back his defender down. If they help, he can make the pass before they recover. Kevin Durant adds 21.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists while shooting 48.3% from the field and 36.0% from three. Jabari Smith Jr. contributes 15.9 points and 6.3 rebounds on 40.7% shooting from deep. Smith gives Sengun a dependable outlet, and Durant provides a late-clock scorer when Washington takes away the first option.
X-Factors
Kyshawn George averages 18.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists while shooting 42.1% from three. He can punish Houston for helping on Davis and handle the ball when Young sits. AJ Dybantsa averages 15.0 points and 6.1 rebounds but shoots just 23.3% from three, giving Houston a reason to sag off him. He can use that space to cut behind defenders instead of settling for jumpers. Sarr averages 11.2 points and 7.4 rebounds on 53.0% shooting. If he's out, Deandre Ayton's minutes become more significant, especially when Davis rests. Bilal Coulibaly can also help by taking some defensive possessions against Durant. Amen Thompson averages 15.0 points and 7.0 rebounds while shooting 51.4% from the field. With VanVleet and Smart out, he can take on more ball-handling duties and pressure Young on defense. Tari Eason adds 9.7 points and 6.2 rebounds, and his work on the offensive glass could be especially valuable if Washington goes smaller. Reed Sheppard, who averages 9.1 points and 2.6 assists, will need to keep the offense organized when Sengun sits.
Prediction
Davis and Young can keep Washington competitive, especially if Sarr plays and helps finish possessions on the glass. However, Houston has more ways to generate good shots over four quarters. Sengun can run the offense without VanVleet, Durant can take over when Washington disrupts the first action, and Smith and Thompson can punish help defense in different ways. The Rockets are expected to pull away in the second half and extend their winning streak to four.
Prediction: Rockets 121, Wizards 115
Originally reported by yahoo.