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Keeping Sonny Gray in a Red Sox uniform for the 2027 MLB season would come at a substantial cost for Boston. Regardless of how negotiations unfold, a considerable sum of money will be involved.
Gray currently holds a $30 million mutual option for 2027, though such options are rarely exercised. If it were picked up, it would mean a one-year, $30 million commitment. If declined, Gray would receive a $10 million buyout and become a free agent.
Should Gray hit the open market, he would be one of the most sought-after starting pitchers available, even at 36 years old. Spotrac projects his market value at just over $58 million over three years. Meanwhile, MassLive.com's Chris Cotillo reported in September that industry insiders expect Gray to command a deal in the neighborhood of three years and $75 million—the same contract he received from the St. Louis Cardinals before the 2024 season.
Gray validated that investment with one of the best campaigns of his career in 2026. Splitting the difference between the two projections yields $66.5 million over three years, but Gray will likely land closer to the higher figure given his performance.
Will Sonny Gray Stick Around?
At 36, Gray should garner Cy Young Award votes and could even finish in the top three for the American League honor. He showed no signs of decline in 2026, and his advanced metrics support the strong results. A deal in the range of $25 million per season would represent fair value, placing him on par with Sean Manaea and Nathan Eovaldi and just ahead of pitchers like Aaron Nola, Seth Lugo, Luis Severino, and Zac Gallen. Gray is absolutely worth that amount, and competition for his services this winter is expected to be fierce.
Gray led the league with 18 wins in 2026, complemented by a 2.72 ERA and a 149-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 169 innings. He has earned a lucrative multi-year contract. If the Red Sox wish to retain him, they will need to open up the checkbook.