bostonglobe
Following a second consecutive Wild Card Series loss to the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox are determined to make changes. Team president and CEO Sam Kennedy expressed a commitment to the fans, stating, 'We commit to [the fans] that we will use that disappointment and frustration as motivation, and we will improve going forward.' However, the path to improvement is complicated by the uncertain labor situation in Major League Baseball.
The current collective bargaining agreement is set to expire on December 1, leaving teams in the dark about future spending penalties and whether a full 2027 season will even be played. MLB owners are expected to lock out the players, adding another layer of unpredictability. These are significant variables that could shape the Red Sox's offseason strategy.
At the end-of-season press conference, Kennedy downplayed the impact of the labor issues on the team's goals. 'The labor issues are way above our collective pay grades,' he said. 'So we're moving forward business as usual as we get into the rest of October and November, December, January, February. We'll leave the labor stuff to the commissioner's office, but I can assure you that our goal is to build on these two postseason appearances. We want to build on this and take it to the next level in 2027.'
Despite Kennedy's optimism, history suggests that labor uncertainty can heavily influence offseason decision-making. When the 2007-11 CBA expired, the Red Sox were surprised when the 2012 luxury tax threshold remained at 2011 levels. Coming off a disastrous 2011 season, they avoided major payroll commitments, with their biggest moves being trades for pre-arbitration relievers Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon. Later, as their 2012 season unraveled, they seized the opportunity to reset their payroll by sending Adrián González, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford to the Dodgers in a blockbuster August trade.
A similar pattern emerged after the 2012-16 CBA expired. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski delayed defining his offseason strategy until the new CBA was settled. When the luxury tax threshold rose only slightly from $189 million to $195 million, the Red Sox, aiming to duck under the threshold in 2017 to reset penalties, focused on trades (most notably for Chris Sale) rather than free-agent signings.
When the CBA expired after the 2021 season, the Red Sox were among many teams that rushed to make moves before the lockout, signing free agents Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, and James Paxton, and trading Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers for Jackie Bradley Jr. and prospects David Hamilton and Alex Binelas. Yet even with those commitments, they kept their 2022 payroll roughly at 2021 levels, just below the luxury tax threshold. Only after the lockout ended in March did they sign Trevor Story, pushing the payroll past the new luxury tax line.
So what does the unresolved labor picture mean for the Red Sox this offseason? The team doesn't know if the luxury tax will still exist in 2027, where the threshold will be set, or whether penalties for exceeding it will be worth paying. The Sox exceeded the threshold in both 2025 and 2026, something they hadn't done for three straight years since 2004-07. This year, the threshold was $244 million, and according to Spotrac, the Red Sox spent just over $270 million for luxury tax purposes, incurring a tax bill of roughly $9 million.
With economic uncertainty looming, the team might choose to stay near the 2026 threshold until the new CBA is negotiated, then adjust spending plans based on the 2027 line. Using MLB Trade Rumors arbitration estimates, the Globe calculates the Sox have about $258.5 million in payroll commitments for 2027 (under current CBA rules). That projection assumes they tender contracts to most arbitration-eligible players, including anticipated staples like Adley Rutschman and Wilyer Abreu, role players such as Andruw Monasterio and Jahmai Jones, and injured players like Tanner Houck and Johan Oviedo.
If the Red Sox traded or non-tendered Jarren Duran (projected $11.1 million) and another injured player like Kutter Crawford (projected $2.8 million), they would be close to the $244 million line without any additions. That doesn't rule out roster changes—particularly trades and non-tenders—before a lockout. Still, if precedent holds, the Red Sox seem unlikely to add significant payroll until after the new CBA is negotiated, if then.
Alex Speier can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him @alexspeier.
Originally reported by bostonglobe.