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In a significant offseason acquisition, the New York Rangers brought in winger Pavel Dorofeyev from the Vegas Golden Knights, surrendering three draft picks, including two first-rounders. The two sides also agreed to a seven-year contract extension worth $11 million per season, raising expectations for the goal-scoring forward.
So far, Dorofeyev's transition to New York has been rocky in terms of goal production. He has managed just two goals in 12 games, a far cry from the 35+ goal seasons he posted in each of the past two campaigns with Vegas.
Despite the slow start, Dorofeyev has still contributed in other ways. His underlying metrics are strong, and the Rangers and their fans must continue to show patience, as his raw production should eventually align with his play if he maintains this level.
Rangers Should Keep Feeding Dorofeyev
On one hand, Dorofeyev is paid to score, and a two-goal start is unacceptable. On the other hand, one criticism of his game was that he was a one-dimensional scorer, but he is now demonstrating an ability to drive play with a 55 percent expected goals rate.
The goals will come as long as he sustains his solid underlying play, as noted by Harman Dayal and Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic in their weekly NHL power rankings (subscription required).
Dorofeyev potted 35 goals in the 2024-25 campaign with the Golden Knights and followed that with 37 last season. He possesses a dangerous left-handed shot and has been effective on special teams, tallying 33 power-play goals over the past two seasons combined.
An adjustment period was expected, as he is no longer skating alongside Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner. However, through 12 games, he has not yet displayed the same finishing ability he showed in Vegas.
He has missed a few easy opportunities to boost his goal totals, but the encouraging sign is that he is generating chances that should soon translate to the scoresheet. Dorofeyev currently leads the Rangers with 5.7 expected goals; the next closest player is Alexis Lafreniere with 4.6, per Money Puck.
Positive regression to the mean is likely. His shooting percentage sits at 5.4%, which would be a career low by a wide margin; his previous low was 13.4%. As a career 14.3% shooter, better days are certainly ahead.
The two best Corsi For percentages among Rangers forward lines both include Dorofeyev. Opportunities have been plentiful, with some bad luck involved, including multiple shots off the post. Now he just needs to get comfortable and capitalize on his chances.