fansided
On September 1, the Philadelphia Phillies secured their sixth consecutive victory by defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks. At that point, their record stood at 79-60, giving them a seven-game advantage in the NL Wild Card standings and playoff odds exceeding 99 percent—not a lock, but close to it.
What a difference a few weeks can make. Following another loss on Friday night—their second straight and eighth in their last 13 games—the Phillies are now clinging to a mere one-game lead over the surging Diamondbacks for the third and final Wild Card spot. Because Arizona won the season series, they only need to match Philadelphia's record by the end of this weekend to overtake them, a scenario that is looking increasingly probable.
The Phillies have not performed like a playoff-caliber team recently. Unless several of their star players reverse their fortunes quickly, this season could end in a $320 million disappointment.
Key Analysis
Shortstop Trea Turner has been a focal point of fan frustration, drawing boos at Citizens Bank Park after a critical strikeout in the sixth inning of Friday's 2-0 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays—a team that has already clinched the AL East and the top seed in the American League. Turner has posted an 81 wRC+ in September, and his recent performance has been particularly ugly. His approach at the plate is disorganized, and combined with his defensive limitations at shortstop, he has become a significant liability at the top of the lineup.
Designated hitter Kyle Schwarber has accumulated considerable goodwill during his tenure in Philadelphia, but he has been dreadful lately, slugging just .229 over the past two weeks. As is typical for Schwarber, he still finds ways to reach base, but if he is not hitting home runs, the team's power source is unclear. Such a top-heavy roster cannot afford a slump like this, even with a strong starting rotation.
First baseman Bryce Harper has homered only once this month and has just five extra-base hits overall. After a torrid start to the second half in August, his bat has gone cold along with his teammates during this critical stretch. For a player who has vocally and justifiably asserted his status as an elite performer, this is a troubling development.
Second baseman Luis Arraez, whose postseason availability is now uncertain after suffering an ankle sprain on an awkward play at first base, had been hindering the Phillies' lineup even before his injury. Acquired at the trade deadline to provide a spark, he has slashed just .281/.308/.357 in the second half, translating to an 81 wRC+, which drops to 59 over the last two weeks. A contact-dependent hitter like Arraez is always prone to such slumps, but when his batted balls are not finding grass, he offers little value—a harsh reality given Philadelphia's efforts to acquire him in August.
Left-handed pitchers Brooks Raley, Jose Alvarado, and Tim Mayza have all endured rough outings recently, leaving the Phillies' bullpen without reliable options against impact left-handed hitters in late-game situations. Raley, another deadline acquisition who has struggled, has been especially poor, while Alvarado has not been his typically dependable self. The Phillies have seen several right-handers step up behind Jhoan Duran, but the situation could become dire if they need to retire Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, and others in October.
Catcher J.T. Realmuto, whose contract was questionable at signing and looks worse now, has gone hitless in his last eight games—a span of 33 plate appearances. He no longer makes the same impact behind the plate as he did in his prime, though his handling of the pitching staff remains valuable. Philadelphia's catching situation has devolved into an automatic out, an untenable circumstance given the numerous question marks elsewhere in the lineup.
Originally reported by fansided.