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Following a Thursday night defeat in Chicago, the New England Patriots return to AFC East action in Week 8 with a road matchup against the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots' record and statistical profile indicate they should be capable of securing a win, and oddsmakers concur. A thorough head-to-head analysis also points to New England as the superior team overall.
Passing Game
When the Patriots have the ball through the air, they could be in for a big day. Since Week 4—when quarterback Drake Maye resolved his early-season struggles—New England's pass offense has posted a 0.423 dropback EPA, ranking first in the NFL by a wide margin. The Dolphins' pass defense, meanwhile, ranks 23rd over that same span with a 0.174 dropback EPA. While that mark is the best among AFC East pass defenses in those four weeks, it hardly suggests Miami can slow down Maye and company. Unless turnover issues resurface, this matchup favors the Patriots.
On the other side, New England's pass defense has had its share of problems, and last week's loss to the Bears may have been the low point: big plays allowed, missed tackles, and no takeaways. However, the Dolphins lack Chicago's overall talent on both sides of the ball. With 10 days to prepare against an inexperienced Miami unit, the Patriots should be able to control the matchup in the trenches and secondary.
Running Game
Rhamondre Stevenson has been a one-man show on the ground for New England, receiving little support from the offensive line and other blockers. The potential return of Ben Brown could provide a boost, and TreVeyon Henderson being another week removed from his ankle sprain might help marginally, but neither is likely to dramatically improve the run game. Miami's run defense, arguably the team's best unit, will look to bounce back after a strong early-season showing. Against New England's inconsistent ground attack, the Dolphins should have an opportunity to do so.
Defensively, the Patriots have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season, and only two of seven opponents have surpassed 100 rushing yards as a team. That said, they face a tough test this week against a Dolphins rushing offense that remains productive despite DeVon Achane being out for the year. Second-year back Ollie Gordon II has eclipsed 100 yards in two of three games since Achane's injury, and Miami's rushing attack ranks among the most potent in the league. If New England's inconsistencies persist, the Dolphins—and Gordon in particular—are well-equipped to exploit them.
Special Teams
After an underwhelming performance in Chicago, the Patriots' special teams will look to get back on track on Sunday. The Dolphins have been less than impressive in this phase: their 13.0 yards per punt return ranks fifth in the NFL, but kickoff coverage (33.6 yards per return; 32nd) and place kicking have been problematic, prompting a change over the Week 6 bye. New England has had its own blemishes, but should be able to win most, if not all, of the core four special teams areas.
Coaching
Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels form one of the NFL's most experienced coaching tandems, while Zak Kuhr has been very good calling the defense in his first year as coordinator. Under their leadership, the Patriots are competitive each and every week. The Dolphins' staff has yet to prove it can consistently do the same. While Miami has shown positive trends, coaching has not been able to overcome a lack of talent on a consistent basis.
Verdict
Currently eighth in the AFC playoff picture, the Patriots need a win to stay within close contact with the conference's top teams. A loss on Sunday would be a major blow to their contender status. New England is the better team top to bottom and should not let the Dolphins steal a win, even on the road.
Originally reported by yahoo.