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In 2026, the San Diego Padres' starting rotation delivered a lackluster performance, ranking fourth-worst in baseball for total innings pitched and posting the 10th-highest ERA at 4.42. Consequently, the bullpen was forced to cover the fourth-most innings in the majors, though they still managed the fifth-lowest ERA. However, that heavy regular-season workload appeared to take a toll in the postseason, where the bullpen faltered.
To prevent a repeat, the Padres may need to invest more heavily in their starting pitching. The outlook for 2027 is even bleaker: Joe Musgrove's return is uncertain until the postseason, Nick Pivetta is expected to miss nearly five months, and the rotation's shape is deteriorating. Ace Michael King opted out of the final two years of his contract, Pivetta's team option was declined, and key reliever Adrian Morejon is rumored to be seeking a lucrative deal elsewhere.
Amid these challenges, The Athletic's Jim Bowden identified Baltimore Orioles left-hander Trevor Rogers as a prime fit for the Padres on a three-year, $64 million contract. Rogers, who turns 29 this month, is coming off a career-high 169.2 innings pitched. His 4.03 ERA represented a significant regression from his career-best 1.81 mark the previous season, but he finished 2026 strongly, recording 88 strikeouts against just eight walks over his final 13 starts.
Five years removed from his only All-Star selection, Rogers posted the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career, though his ERA+ was only 1% above league average. Beyond his durability, Rogers showed marked improvement from 2025 to 2026 in inducing chases outside the strike zone and limiting walks. His chase and walk percentages both ranked in the 92nd percentile this season, up from the 72nd and 69th percentiles, respectively, the year before.
Key Analysis
While ERA doesn't fully capture a pitcher's value, Rogers' upward trajectory and ability to eat innings could make him exactly the kind of investment general manager A.J. Preller and the front office need to stabilize a rotation plagued by uncertainty. If Rogers can sustain his improved command and continue to log innings, he could prove to be a crucial addition for San Diego.