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The San Diego Padres are facing elimination after losing the first two games of the National League Division Series to the Milwaukee Brewers. The Padres now need to win three straight games against a Brewers team that won a league-best 103 games during the regular season to keep their season alive.
If they fail to do so, it will mark another early postseason exit for an aging roster.
"It's a big challenge," Padres manager Craig Stammen said after Sunday's walk-off loss. "They're a great team. You saw how hard they battle us here in Milwaukee. But we like where we are when we play at home. We can defend our home field and then hopefully have a chance to a return trip back to Milwaukee."
To get there, the Padres need to make an adjustment.
Padres Offense Needs to Be Better
The Padres offense carried them through the second half of the season. Through two games in the NLDS—albeit against great pitching—they've gotten away from their game.
The Padres are just 3-for-18 with runners in scoring position over the first two games of the series. They've left a total of 20 runners on base.
"Unable to quite punch through and put the game away a little bit there. I think both games we had chances," Stammen said. "But overall, it's going to be tough against their pitching staff to punch through in those spots. They're matching up really well. With two outs, not a given that we're gonna get a hit. But we had a couple tonight. A couple more would have helped."
The Padres know they're facing the best pitching this time of year. The Brewers bullpen had a 3.40 ERA in the regular season, which was slightly better than the Padres' 3.53 mark. Brewers starters ranked fifth in MLB with a 3.61 combined ERA. For reference, Padres starters had a 4.42 ERA that ranked 21st.
Nevertheless, the Padres were among baseball's best teams hitting with runners in scoring position this season, ranking fifth in batting average (.268) and wRC+ (112). Through two NLDS games, they're hitting just .167.
Fernando Tatis Jr., who keyed the Padres' second-half surge, is just 1-for-10 this series and has stranded three runners in scoring position. Jackson Merrill, who was right there with Tatis in the second half, is 1-for-9 and has stranded four.
"Obviously, they have really good pitching out there, and we also can take better at-bats as a group, including myself," Tatis said. "Just just clean it up. Obviously, I want to say better at-bats. But, man, they're moving the ball well. We've just got to find a way to execute."
If the Padres are able to play their style of baseball—moving runners over and hitting with men in scoring position—they have a good chance at staying alive. If they don't, they'll be forced to answer questions about another early postseason exit.
"Obviously, a must-win game from here on out," second baseman Jake Cronenworth said. "We've had our backs up against the wall for a while—since July—and no different now."