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The Oregon Ducks are licking their wounds after a 21-10 defeat to Illinois, their third loss of the campaign. In the aftermath, head coach Dan Lanning indicated that quarterback Dante Moore is unlikely to return this season due to a concussion, and the program has parted ways with offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer. The setback also severely damaged Oregon's College Football Playoff aspirations.
ESPN's most recent bowl projections, released on October 26, slot the Ducks outside the playoff field. One forecast pits Oregon against a team still in the playoff hunt, while the other sets up a compelling rematch.
Trust and Will Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs. Wake Forest
Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California. The Ducks are trending downward, whereas the Demon Deacons are on the rise and appear to be a legitimate threat to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference title game, especially with the nation's top team, Miami, in the mix. However, Wake Forest likely needs to win out, including the ACC Championship, to secure a CFP berth; even a second-place finish might not guarantee a spot. The next best scenario for the Deacons would be a date with Oregon in this historic late-December bowl.
Oregon has thrived in San Diego, holding a 3-1 overall record in the Holiday Bowl. The Ducks' most recent appearance came in the 2022 season against a North Carolina squad led by quarterback Drake Maye, who is now the face of the New England Patriots. Oregon's winning effort was spearheaded by another future NFL quarterback, Bo Nix, who passed for 205 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner with 19 seconds remaining. Surprisingly, the Ducks are 0-2 all-time against Wake Forest, with both losses occurring in December—at the 1992 Independence Bowl and the 2002 Seattle Bowl. This December 28 game would also pit former Pac-12 coaches against each other: Oregon's Dan Lanning and Wake Forest's Jake Dickert, who previously coached Washington State before the Ducks joined the Big Ten. Dickert is 0-2 against Oregon, including a 44-41 shootout loss in Pullman in 2022 when his Cougars were quarterbacked by Cam Ward.
Valero Alamo Bowl: Oregon vs. Texas Tech
Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas. There is a sense that last season's Orange Bowl clash could be reprised inside the Alamodome on December 29. Texas Tech's CFP hopes took a significant hit in the same week as Oregon's loss to Illinois, as the previously unbeaten Red Raiders were overwhelmed by unranked Cincinnati, triggering a tailspin in what has become a fiercely competitive Big 12 for 2026. Should this matchup materialize, coach Joey McGuire will undoubtedly be motivated by how Oregon defeated his team last season at Hard Rock Stadium—a 23-0 shutout—and wide receiver Coy Eakin will share that motivation. Meanwhile, Oregon has looked vastly different from the 2025 playoff team, but a trip to San Antonio would serve as a final highlight in what has been a nightmarish scenario for the 2026 Ducks. Oregon's history at the Alamodome is not stellar, with a 1-2 record. The Ducks squandered a 31-point lead in a 47-41 loss to TCU during the 2015 season, and Oklahoma defeated Oregon there in 2021 by a 47-32 margin.
Key Analysis
The Ducks' fall from playoff contention has opened the door to intriguing bowl possibilities. A Holiday Bowl rematch with Wake Forest would evoke memories of past December disappointments, while an Alamo Bowl clash with Texas Tech would offer a shot at redemption for last season's Orange Bowl triumph. Both scenarios present unique storylines, from coaching connections to historical parallels, adding layers of intrigue to Oregon's postseason fate.