fansided
If the anticipation of a potential lockout in early December led one to expect that the MLB GM Meetings would transform into a de-facto Winter Meetings, this week proved to be a letdown. All 30 teams left Las Vegas with little more than the Detroit Tigers signing former Cincinnati Reds closer Emilio Pagan, marking the first free-agent move. Yet, despite the lack of action, the past few days offered valuable insights into how the offseason might unfold and what the sport's economic picture could look like by spring.
That's encouraging for some teams and players, but others—starting with the biggest free agent on the market—were not so fortunate.
Loser: Tarik Skubal
Of course, 'loser' is relative; Skubal is arguably the best pitcher on the planet in his prime, and he will get paid a substantial amount regardless of what happens in the coming weeks. However, any hopes of resetting the market for starting pitchers—much less approaching the $400 million mark—are now fainter than they were at the start of the winter. Where will that kind of demand come from? The Los Angeles Dodgers seem more interested in a short-term deal with a higher average annual value. The Toronto Blue Jays secured a meeting with Skubal, but recent reports suggest it's more due diligence than desperation given their depth of starting pitching and need for impact bats. The San Diego Padres would surely love to poach the lefty from a division rival, but with so many big contracts already on the books, can they really break the bank as Skubal hopes? Scanning the list, it's hard to find big-market suitors that will create the bidding war necessary for a record-setting contract.
Loser: Scott Boras
This makes life much harder for Skubal's agent, as Boras typically thrives by pitting talent-hungry teams with deep pockets against one another. Even under normal circumstances, that might be tricky in this market. But given the apparently very real concerns around the league about spending big ahead of a potential salary cap, Boras no longer holds all the cards. And he might have to get used to that arrangement. Boras has been a vocal opponent of MLB instituting any sort of cap, and while he might be correct on the merits, he's also certainly acting out of self-interest. In a world with fixed max contracts, there's not much negotiating for baseball's preeminent super-agent to do.
Winner: New York Mets
The Mets, meanwhile, might just be able to let Skubal come to them. The other three teams confirmed to be meeting with the lefty all have reason to be cautious about a long-term contract. But New York has both the richest owner in baseball and a relatively clean payroll moving forward, with only Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor on the books for the long haul. They appear to be the clear favorite for Skubal at the moment—the best combination of able and willing—and that's a pretty good position to be in.
Loser: Los Angeles Dodgers
This isn't even really just about Skubal; the Dodgers will have one of the best rotations in baseball next season regardless of whether they're able to bring him back to Los Angeles. But it's hard not to look at the way they're handling Skubal's free agency so far, the rumblings around their desire to offload the final year of Teoscar Hernandez's contract, and the speculation around owner Mark Walter's finances, and read the writing on the wall. Even if MLB gives teams an extra year to become cap-compliant, that would still put the Dodgers in a bind given how much money they have committed in 2028 and beyond. It feels like baseball's Death Star is finally feeling the squeeze, which could make for a quieter winter than usual for a team that suddenly finds itself with a creaky lineup that needs to be addressed.
Winner: Rob Manfred
There's a long way to go before the current CBA expires on Dec. 2, and the players have made it very clear that they have no interest in accepting a salary cap under any circumstances. The general tenor of the GM Meetings, though, suggests that MLB front offices believe Manfred will eventually win this staring contest. How else to explain the general timidity in both the free agency and trade markets? If teams really weren't all that worried about a sea change, they'd be looking to get as much business as possible done before a lockout sets in. Instead, they're clearly worried about how any deals might look in a new salary cap world, and that's the sort of fear that Manfred feeds on. The more free agents left dangling during a lockout, the more leverage he can exert.
Loser: New York Yankees
The most credible piece of news around the Yankees at the GM Meetings involved their interest in former Phillie Alec Bohm, a curious choice (to say the least) given New York's glut of corner bats and their desire to get better defensively. If Bohm is simply a replacement for Paul Goldschmidt as Luis Garcia Jr.'s platoon partner at first base, fair enough, but it's hard to believe his market will crater to that extent. And if Brian Cashman really is considering him as a solution at third base, it's hard to overstate how disastrous that would be. Add in a lack of great roster fits in free agency (most of the best bats are corner outfielders, which New York is already full up on) and a sleepy trade market (more on that in a moment), and early signs are not promising in the Bronx.
Winner: San Diego Padres
Sure, the Padres haven't actually signed anybody yet. But AJ Preller more or less shut down any notion that the team might be looking to trade stars like Mason Miller and Fernando Tatis Jr. Couple that with San Diego scoring a meeting with Skubal, and there's good reason to believe that this new ownership group really is set on spending some money moving forward. For a team with holes to fill but plenty of cash already committed to aging stars, that's a godsend.
Winner: Seiya Suzuki and Randy Arozarena
While Skubal's market is a bit slower to materialize, it seems like half the league is desperate to get their hands on outfield bats, particularly ones who hit right-handed. That's tremendous news for both Suzuki and Arozarena, likely the two most established position players in this thin free agent market. Everyone from the Yankees to the Red Sox to the Blue Jays to the Phillies to the Braves to the Cubs to the Padres could be in on these markets, and unlike Skubal, their paydays shouldn't be overly strenuous in a cap environment.
Loser: The trade market
At the start of the winter, it was easy to dream on a star-studded trade market that featured players like CJ Abrams, Shea Langeliers, Gunnar Henderson, Logan Gilbert and even mega-names like Tatis Jr., Elly De La Cruz and Ronald Acuña Jr. Some of the above might yet wind up being available, but for now, it sure sounds like teams are setting the same sort of high bar that made this past trade deadline relatively anemic. Especially if a cap is coming, cost control is king, so there's very little reason to cut ties with a player multiple years away from free agency unless you're getting an absolute haul in return. It won't be totally barren, of course; Reid Detmers and Jeremy Peña are almost certainly gone this winter, to name just two. But things could move much more slowly than expected.
Winner: Teruaki Sato
Sato's market figured to be fascinating. On the one hand, the raw power he displayed in Japan was prodigious; on the other, he came with real concerns about his strikeout rate and his lack of defensive value. So far, though, it seems like teams have been swayed by Munetaka Murakami's successful debut in the States, with several big-market suitors allegedly inquiring about his services. It remains to be seen where his contract will eventually wind up, but it's a good sign that front offices don't appear to be scared off by the question marks in his profile. In a thin market for hitters, he could get paid.
Originally reported by fansided.