foxnews
Major League Baseball is exploring innovative rule changes this autumn that could fundamentally alter the sport's strategic landscape. Amid ongoing debates about declining offensive output, the league is testing new defensive positioning restrictions in the Arizona Fall League, a typical testing ground for potential MLB rules.
For years, strikeout rates have climbed while league-wide batting averages have fallen. Discussions about situational hitting, putting the ball in play, and the perceived shortcomings of modern hitters have become commonplace. However, this nostalgic viewpoint overlooks critical factors affecting the on-field product, including the wealth of data now available.
MLB recognizes that a run-scoring environment that is too low can diminish viewer excitement, and they are correct. One of their initial steps to address the surge in run prevention was to limit infield shifts. Previously, infielders could position themselves almost anywhere, sometimes even in the outfield. These shifts drastically cut down on hits from ground balls to the pull side, as had been the norm throughout baseball history.
The league implemented specific guidelines on extreme positioning, essentially requiring shortstops and second basemen to stay on their side of second base. This largely worked. League-wide batting averages on ground balls increased after the new rules took effect. Since 2018, the mid-.240s mark represents a notable rise from the shift era, though still relatively low.
Fans might not have noticed more ground ball hits, and the data supports that. For instance, in 2018, there were nearly 54,000 at-bats ending in ground balls. By 2026, that number was just over 51,000, but with a similar number of hits. Ground ball batting average is up, but total hits haven't changed. Why? More fly balls. This is precisely what the league hopes to address with potential changes.
Thanks to years of data analysis, front offices know that the best outcomes often come from hitting the ball in the air. The top hitters in the league hit the ball hard and in the air. With the advent of pitch metrics, pitch shaping, and an endless supply of 100 mph relievers, hitting has become harder than ever. Consequently, front offices prioritize players who may not make frequent contact but generate high-quality contact when they do. The data confirms that outcomes on fly balls and line drives are significantly better than on grounders. In 2018, for example, the league hit .402 with a .770 slugging percentage on balls in the air, compared to .236 with a .258 slugging percentage on ground balls.
However, there's a problem that MLB aims to fix: with Statcast and limitless data on hitter tendencies, defensive positioning has become so precise that teams are dramatically reducing success rates on fly balls and liners. A perfect example occurred in Monday night's NLCS game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers. The Dodgers had runners on first and second with no outs in the top of the third inning of a 1-1 game. Logan Henderson threw Freddie Freeman a 0-1 changeup that landed right in the ideal hitting zone for a left-handed batter. Freeman crushed it at 106.4 mph with a 22-degree launch angle, straight to the right-center field gap. According to Statcast, balls with those characteristics are hits 84% of the time. Historically, that was a prototypical double. Instead, right fielder Sal Frelick was positioned perfectly and ran it down without diving. Instead of a bases-clearing double that scores two runs and sets up a big inning, it became a fly ball out. That is why offense is down.
Despite their old-school reputation, the Brewers use analytics as much as any team. Their front office analyzes every batted ball from Freeman against right-handed pitchers throwing pitches like Henderson's, then positions fielders where he is most likely to hit. Unsurprisingly, they were right, and it may have helped them win Game 2 by preventing a big inning. League-wide, teams have become increasingly adept at limiting offense on fly balls and line drives through defensive positioning. Since 2018, batting average and slugging percentage on balls in the air have declined. It's still better to hit the ball in the air than on the ground, but league-wide batting averages on fly balls have dropped dramatically—a whopping 35 points from the 'juiced ball' 2019 season, and roughly 20 points from 2018 or 2021. That's why offense is down: teams are better at positioning fielders, both left-right and by playing deeper than ever.
MLB might be looking to stop this. FanGraphs reported on an apparent test of new defensive positioning rules in the Arizona Fall League. According to their report, 'sources indicated to me that the league's motivation is to see if further limiting the locations where defenders are allowed to stand will create more base-hit action and have a positive impact on the game's aesthetics.' How does it work in practice? 'Dark green hash marks have been painted on the outfield grass and at points along the arc where the infield dirt meets the outfield grass,' the report says. 'Defenders have to stand within a certain distance of these hash marks when a pitch is thrown.' It continues, 'In this alignment, infielders are forced to play 'straight up,' while the corner outfielders are closer to the foul lines, and the center fielder is more shallow compared to where we see big league outfielders normally play nowadays. The Hawkeye system that tracks balls and strikes, as well as the locations of balls in play and players' on-field locations, is being used to monitor where the defenders are relative to these painted anchor points on the field. Above the stands, hanging just beneath the press box and visible from the field, are LED boards that show the players whether they are in compliance with the location restrictions.'
That's fascinating and perhaps beneficial for baseball. Some purists will lament the incursion of more technology and specific rules governing where fielders can stand. But many of MLB's changes were initially hated, yet within a few years were mostly unnoticed or even celebrated. The pitch clock has been unambiguously good, speeding up games while increasing action. Ending infield shifts has worked, though its effects might not have been as dramatic as hoped. But restricting outfield positioning could fundamentally change baseball by dramatically increasing offense success rates on the type of quality contact teams, players, and fans have been conditioned to value over years. It would also increase the importance of athleticism and skill among outfielders. The lumbering left fielder whose poor defense can be hidden with excellent positioning will suddenly have to cover more ground. Faster hitters who can push the ball into the gaps will be able to take advantage of their speed and get extra bases. Pitching is harder to hit than ever, with starters and relievers throwing harder and with more movement.
Originally reported by foxnews.