theathleticuk
The Toronto Maple Leafs are mired in a significant slump, having secured just one victory in their past six outings—a win over the league-worst Vancouver Canucks—and have consequently tumbled well behind the playoff pack in the NHL's Eastern Conference. Their current 8-9-2 record projects to fewer than 80 points, a total that would almost certainly fall short in a season where the postseason cutoff is expected to hover around 100 points.
Despite 65 games remaining on the schedule, the arithmetic required to climb back into contention is becoming increasingly steep for Toronto. A finish akin to a 41-24-0 run—or an equivalent mark with some overtime losses mixed in—would be necessary to secure a playoff berth. That translates to playing at a 106-point pace over the next four months, a standard that ranks among the league's best, all while nearly 40 percent of their remaining games come against Atlantic Division rivals. The Leafs managed only seven wins within the division all of last season and are currently 0-3-1 in such matchups this year.
Compounding the on-ice woes, a sudden wave of injuries has hit the roster, with Morgan Rielly, Jack Roslovic, and Colton Sissons all joining Kirill Marchenko in the infirmary over the weekend. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the team is carrying 16 players over the age of 30, including four key contributors aged 35 or older—Sergei Bobrovsky, Chris Tanev, John Tavares, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson—making additional health-related absences a realistic concern.
On the ice, the negatives far outweigh the positives. The Leafs' aging No. 1 goaltender, who carries a massive $21 million contract, has cost the team multiple games. The blue line, despite the competent play of newcomer Darren Raddysh, appears sluggish and overmatched, placing excessive demands on essentially every member of the top six. At even strength, both the second and third lines have been a jumbled mess all season, surrendering goals and scoring chances at a high rate while generating little offense. As evidence, the trio of Gavin McKenna, Tavares, and William Nylander currently ranks as the NHL's second-worst regularly deployed line (with over 35 minutes together) by expected goals rate at 27.9 percent.
Behind the bench, the coaching staff led by Jim Hiller is struggling to adapt to a rotating cast and underwhelming performances from key contributors, most notably the $11.5 million man Nylander. Meanwhile, the front office is hamstrung by a salary-cap situation that is the tightest in the league—so tight that the team cannot even accommodate the $936,056 entry-level cap hit required to recall rookie defenseman Ben Danford, who is also now injured.
If a silver lining is what you seek, this may not be the column for you. Judging by the recent flood of questions from readers, many Leafs fans are not in the mood for optimism anyway. That said, one positive aspect of the ugly start is that it leaves little room for ambiguity about where the team stands. Thirteen of their next 19 games are against high-end, playoff-caliber opponents, including a brutal gauntlet of Colorado, Minnesota, and Edmonton later this week. Should the losses continue to mount during this stretch, it will become undeniable that the Leafs are not only going to miss the playoffs but also will not realistically be part of the race at all—eliminating any reason for the front office to make a quick-fix trade to patch a hole.
Key Analysis
The overarching goal for this season, as understood, was for the franchise to take a step back toward respectability. After finishing fifth-last a year ago, the team loaded up on veteran additions and win-now talent in an effort to return to the playoffs—a push motivated at least in part by trying to convince captain Auston Matthews, a free agent in 2028, to stay. The only young player added was McKenna, who fell into their lap after winning the draft lottery. Otherwise, the front office committed term and dollars—roughly $38 million in new AAVs on the cap this season and more than $45 million for 2027-28—to a lineup that has produced the same number of points per game as last year's disastrous showing. Nine players on the roster have full no-movement or no-trade clauses; another six have partial no-trades that will inhibit their ability to be moved. With essentially everyone signed through the end of next season, pivoting away from this underperforming group in-season will not be easy, and it will be especially difficult if the goal is to somehow improve in the near term.
Full-scale teardown rebuilds have fallen out of fashion across the NHL of late, and the Chicago Blackhawks' absolutely horrifying 4-13-1 start is not going to help in that regard. The other option facing the Leafs would be to try to emulate teams such as the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals, two Eastern Conference clubs that look like playoff teams thanks in part to youth-infused movements with the additions of James Hagens, Fraser Minten, J.J. Peterka, Ryan Leonard, Cole Hutson, and Ilya Protas. Arguably, Toronto already took a run at a retool-like makeover this past summer, with 10 new faces joining the lineup and a massive overhaul in the front office and behind the bench. It is hard, however, to view that attempt as a success given where they sit now, with one of the oldest rosters in the league, limited flexibility, and no progress in the standings.
As a result, the Leafs are going to face bigger existential questions if they do not start putting more wins on the board between now and Christmas. Whether a retooling of this retool is even possible is a fair question, given the lack of trade capital and all of the constraints on the roster. And whether they can find their own youth movement, beyond McKenna and Easton Cowan, is also up for debate, given their underwhelming prospect pool and lack of first-round picks. It is getting late awfully early for the Leafs this year. If things keep going pear-shaped the way they have these first 19 games, they are going to need to chart a new course, one that incorporates the bigger picture beyond trying to find a shortcut back up the standings. That is a hard way to find success in today's NHL, and we are seeing why whenever this team takes the ice of late.
Originally reported by theathleticuk.