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As the 2026-27 college basketball season gets underway, the Kentucky Wildcats find themselves in unfamiliar territory: the long-shot tier. FanDuel has installed Kentucky at +4500 to win the 2027 national championship, a price that ties them with UCLA and Michigan for the 21st-best odds in the country. Twenty programs are listed ahead of a school that owns eight national titles.
That number is a far cry from recent seasons. In 2022-23, the Wildcats were +900 at Caesars, sharing preseason co-favorite status with North Carolina. A year later, DraftKings had them at +1400 in October, fourth behind Kansas, Duke, and Purdue. Entering 2025-26, FanDuel listed Kentucky at +1400 following a Sweet 16 run in Mark Pope's first year. But by February, the Wildcats had drifted to +10000, and their season ended with an 82-63 loss to Iowa State in the Round of 32. The 2026-27 odds opened at +3000 when FanDuel posted them after last April's title game and have since slid to +4500, a significant drop in 12 months from contender to the back half of the top 25.
The sportsbooks appear to be factoring in last March's disappointment and an offseason in which Kentucky missed on several top targets, most notably No. 1 recruit Tyran Stokes, who chose Kansas.
Why the Odds Might Be Too Long
The case for value begins with the best player in the transfer portal. Milan Momcilovic arrives from Iowa State after one of the most efficient shooting seasons in recent memory, averaging 16.9 points per game and 3.7 made 3-pointers per night at nearly 49 percent. He scored 20 points and hit four threes against Kentucky in that tournament game, so the Wildcats have witnessed his impact firsthand.
Around him, Pope has assembled a big, experienced roster. Zoom Diallo (15.7 ppg at Washington) and Furman's Alex Wilkins can attack off the dribble. Justin McBride (15.3 ppg at James Madison) adds scoring punch, and Ousmane NDiaye is a 6-foot-11 international who can stretch the floor. Malachi Moreno returns to anchor the middle as a sophomore. The projected starting five stands at 6-4, 6-5, 6-8, 6-11, and 7-0. Rebounding plagued the program last year, and such size gives Pope a real opportunity to fix that weakness.
AP voters have Kentucky at No. 23, nearly mirroring FanDuel's assessment. If Momcilovic shoots anywhere near last year's numbers and the guards remain healthy, both may be underestimating this group.
Momcilovic's Wooden Award Odds
Momcilovic is the only Wildcat on FanDuel's Wooden Award board, listed at +5500. That price ties him for 23rd with Louisville's Flory Bidunga and Jackson Shelstad, Michigan's Elliot Cadeau, Trey McKenney, and Moustapha Thiam, and Nebraska's Pryce Sandfort.
The valuation seems fair for now. Elite shooters rarely win the award without a significant jump in usage, and Momcilovic has never been a team's primary creator. Still, the path exists. If Kentucky outperforms its odds this season, it will likely be because Momcilovic emerged as the best scorer in the SEC, and voters tend to reward the best player on a team that exceeds expectations. Dick Vitale has already placed him on his third-team All-Rolls-Royce list.
Who the Books Favor for the Title
The top of the national championship market is a two-team race: Duke at +450 and Florida at +650, followed by UConn (+1200), Illinois (+1400), Arizona (+1600), Michigan State (+2000), Texas (+2200), Texas Tech (+2200), Louisville (+2500), Arkansas (+2500), and then St. John's, Virginia, Houston, Gonzaga, and Kansas at +3000. Vanderbilt, Iowa State, Alabama, and Miami sit at +3500, while Kentucky, UCLA, and Michigan are at +4500.
Duke reloaded as usual, adding Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell and five-star freshman Joaquim Boumtje-Boumtje to a roster that already returned plenty. Florida, the preseason No. 1 in the AP poll, brings back its frontcourt of Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, and Rueben Chinyelu, along with Denzel Aberdeen, who returns to Gainesville after one season in Lexington.
The SEC numbers illustrate the league's depth: Florida, Texas, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Alabama are all priced ahead of Kentucky. Louisville sits 20 spots higher at +2500. Iowa State, the team that ended Kentucky's season in March, is also ahead at +3500, even after the Wildcats took its best player.
Who the Books Favor for the Wooden Award
FanDuel's Wooden Award market is led by Jeremy Fears Jr. (Michigan State) at +850, Tyran Stokes (Kansas) at +1100, Tyler Tanner (Vanderbilt) at +1200, Thomas Haugh (Florida) at +1400, Joaquim Boumtje-Boumtje (Duke) at +1900, John Blackwell (Duke) at +2200, Jordan Smith Jr. (Arkansas) at +2200, Braylon Mullins (UConn) at +2200, David Mirkovic (Illinois) at +3000, and Nikola Kusturica (UCLA) at +3000.
Louisville has two players at Momcilovic's +5500 and a team 20 spots higher on the title board. Kansas boasts the second favorite in Stokes, the recruit who chose the Jayhawks over Kentucky.
The Bottom Line
This is the longest Kentucky has been on a preseason title board in years. It reflects last March's results and serves as a referendum on Year 3 of the Pope era. It is also the first season in a while in which the Wildcats do not carry the weight of being a top-10 favorite.
Originally reported by yahoo.