hawaiitribune_herald
At the midpoint of the college football season, the University of Hawaii football team finds itself with a 1-5 record, a far cry from the 3-3 mark that some, including this columnist, had predicted. While a few plays here and there could have altered the outcome, those near-misses also highlight the team's most glaring issues.
In Saturday's loss at Arizona State, the Warriors once again struggled in the red zone. In a recurring theme during their three-game losing streak, UH moved the ball effectively between the 20s but failed to capitalize when it mattered most. Against the Sun Devils, Hawaii had four downs from the 2-yard line but couldn't punch it in.
Over those three losses, the Warriors have managed just 16 points on eight red zone possessions. For the season, in 20 trips inside the opponent's 20, they have failed to reach the end zone 13 times, settling for six field goals. The defense has also been a letdown, allowing nearly 400 yards per game and forcing only three turnovers all year.
In the preseason, this columnist projected the Warriors to be 3-3 at this point, with wins over New Mexico State, San Jose State, and Wyoming. However, aside from a 29-19 victory over the Aggies, it has been a struggle. Unless the team turns things around starting Saturday against New Mexico, those predictions will look even worse. The schedule after the midpoint seemed manageable enough for a run, beginning with the Lobos.
But as retired sports editor Paul Arnett used to say, if past performance is any indication, the chances of this team winning six straight are slim and none—and Slim just left town. Still, the Warriors will be in town Saturday, so maybe they can overcome being 16-point underdogs. Sure, anything's possible.
Now is a good time to reassess, as there is a clearer picture of what the Warriors are and what they face than there was in early August. While two of the remaining opponents have a combined 9-2 record, the other four are 4-18, meaning there are winnable games ahead.
Key Analysis
New Mexico (4-1, 1-0 Mountain West) comes to town Saturday riding a two-game win streak and coming off a bye. A home field advantage against San Jose State didn't result in a win, so this preseason pick must be flipped. The Lobos are hot.
On October 24, the Warriors travel to Northern Illinois (0-5, 0-1). Assuming they make it to DeKalb, this is a defense against which they should finally find the end zone, whether from close range or long range.
On November 7, UH visits UTEP (1-5, 0-2). The Warriors can win at the Sun Bowl—it happened 24 years ago when coach Timmy Chang was quarterback Timmy Chang. The Miners' only win this year came against UT Martin.
North Dakota State (5-1, 2-1) visits on November 14. The Bison were unbeaten until a 13-7 loss at UNLV on Saturday. Their transition from FCS dominance has been smooth. The Warriors will likely be 3-7 after this one, not the 7-3 projected in the summer.
On November 21, Hawaii plays at Nevada (2-3, 2-2). This looked very winnable before the season, but now not so much, mostly because late-November weather in Reno favors the home team, and altitude always does against a team from sea level.
Sacramento State (1-5) comes to Honolulu on November 28. There's no reason to change the prediction on this one, especially considering the Hornets just got clobbered by Bowling Green. UH will win its ninth straight senior night game.
Unfortunately for the Warriors, unless Slim comes riding back into town real soon, it won't be enough to get them into the Hawaii Bowl.
Originally reported by hawaiitribune_herald.