theathleticuk
CLEVELAND — For close to seven months, the Guardians' pitching staff has functioned like a relay team, seamlessly passing the baton from starter to reliever and back to a new starter the following day. This pitching prowess has been the cornerstone of Cleveland's success, propelling them to division titles nearly every season. From the chilly days of April and May through the warm summer months and into the crisp October nights, the formula has remained consistent.
No matter who carries the baton to the final leg, it invariably ends up in the reliable right hand of Cade Smith. Even on occasions when perhaps it shouldn't. Smith closed out the Cleveland Guardians' 3-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday, the final odd decision in a two-night stretch full of them. Now, the Guardians find themselves in a familiar predicament: needing two wins in two games with no margin for error to survive and advance, just as they did in the Division Series.
The Guardians trail the Rays 3-2 in the best-of-seven American League Championship Series, and the tension is palpable. The knees are a bit wobbly, the back aches a little deeper. The starters and relievers have carried this franchise on their backs for weeks, and now they appear to be faltering. Cleveland seems to have nothing left in the tank, and October isn't over yet.
One of the most challenging aspects of managing is handling the bullpen, and Guardians manager Stephen Vogt has often excelled at it. Cleveland seemed well-positioned to win two games in four days with both of its aces still to come after Friday's rainout. Win the starts of Parker Messick and Gavin Williams, pop champagne again, and advance to Milwaukee. If only it were that simple.
The Guardians used seven relievers in Game 4 and six more in Game 5. Both Tim Herrin and Shawn Armstrong have pitched in consecutive games (both losses), and the Guardians are still chasing those two wins. They may not even make it back to Williams in Game 7. Vogt wouldn't name his Game 6 starter but acknowledged it won't be his ace on short rest. For Cleveland to get back to its best starter, it will have to find a way to win Game 6 on the road with—well, no one is really sure what's left.
Smith was on the mound for the ninth inning on Sunday in a game the Guardians trailed by two. He threw 22 pitches just to get through the ninth and has now thrown 140 pitches in 10 high-leverage October innings. A series of decisions led Vogt to this point of feeling like he had to use his closer in a game the Guardians were trailing, knowing full well they still had two more games to win in the next two days—and now Smith may not be available for either of them.
Smith received two days off before Sunday. That's the good news. The bad news is his velocity was down a tick, and 22 pitches in a game the Guardians were losing seems like less-than-ideal usage. "It was difficult, going to Smith when trailing," Vogt said. "That's why we didn't do it (Saturday) night. Then tonight, you felt like the rest of the bullpen was taxed."
Vogt could have saved Foster Griffin for Game 5 to give Messick another day of rest. Or stuck with Griffin in Game 4 and made better use of Joey Cantillo in Game 5 for something more than the two-thirds of an inning he pitched to close out Saturday's loss. Cantillo was one of their hottest pitchers not that long ago. Now he struggles to get in games. Messick is clearly exhausted and probably could've used an extra day. He barely made it through two innings on Sunday and is now at 200 innings for the year—or about 60 more than he threw last season. He hasn't been sharp for much of this postseason, but given the workload excess over last year, it's easy to see why.
Even using Griffin in Game 4, the Guardians were tied 1-1 going to the sixth. Rather than using high-leverage relievers such as Erik Sabrowski and Hunter Gaddis, the game got away from them with Slade Cecconi and Matt Festa. All of that led to Vogt burning his top arms in a game the Guardians trailed throughout on Sunday. "It's two nights in a row we had to go to the bullpen early," Vogt said. "And when you do that, you've got to keep everybody as fresh as possible. Credit to our leverage guys. We overextended all of them, and they all kept their pitch counts low. So they'll be ready to go tomorrow."
Of course, some of these decisions would be a lot easier if the Guardians could score more than three runs, something they haven't done in four of the five games this series. The margins Vogt is operating under with his pitching staff are thinner than the first-base line, which makes every decision feel magnified. Maybe Vogt will start Cantillo in Game 6. Maybe he'll wake up Tanner Bibee, though that seems unlikely given how little Vogt seems to trust him right now. The Guardians are almost out of time. They're almost out of gas, too.
Key Analysis
The Guardians' reliance on their bullpen has been a double-edged sword. While it has been a strength all season, the heavy workload is now taking its toll. Manager Stephen Vogt faces tough choices with limited options, and the offense's inability to provide run support has only exacerbated the pressure on the pitching staff. With their backs against the wall, Cleveland must find a way to grind out two more wins, but the fatigue is evident. The series has become a test of endurance as much as skill, and the Guardians are running on fumes.
Originally reported by theathleticuk.