theathleticuk
LAS VEGAS — Years before Tarik Skubal became baseball's most coveted free agent, he turned down Scott Boras. In the winter of 2016, Boras flew from California to Las Vegas and then drove an hour and a half south to Skubal's hometown of Kingman, Arizona. There, Boras made a grand presentation and sat through a four-hour meeting—a last-ditch effort to recruit a pitcher few had heard of.
At that time, Skubal had the same toothy grin and a familiar big, left-handed delivery. Yet almost no one could have foreseen the dominant force he would become, a player now positioned to sign the largest contract ever for a pitcher. "He had glowingly long hair, and that arm was electric, and it had come out of nowhere," Boras recalled on Wednesday, reflecting on the origins of what now seems like a fateful partnership.
As a freshman from a dusty, remote town, Skubal was lucky if his fastball reached 90-91 mph. He famously received only one Division I offer and attended Seattle University—which Boras called a "powerhouse" despite it not having its own baseball field. And yes, there was that haircut. "For those of us who value hair, I wish I had it," Boras joked.
During his freshman year, Skubal sat mostly between 86-89 mph. He committed the next offseason to getting stronger and throwing harder, returning as a sophomore at 94-95 mph. His first breakout performance came in an early-season game against Saint Mary's. Originally scheduled to start on a Friday night against Corbin Burnes, a minor lat injury pushed his outing to Sunday. Skubal struck out 13 batters in seven innings, and suddenly major-league scouts took notice.
Several powerhouse agencies, including Boras Corporation, have their own scouting divisions and seek out star clients much like MLB teams search for players. Less than a month later, Skubal pitched against UC Irvine, barely a 10-minute drive from Boras Corp. headquarters in Newport Beach. Boras and other agency representatives sat in the stands to watch the lefty who was bursting onto the scene. Skubal went seven innings, struck out eight, and did not surrender a run. "I pitched well again, and my velocity was great," Skubal recalled two years ago on the Tiger Territory podcast.
After the game, Skubal met with Boras, Boras Corp. vice president Scott Chiamparino, and others. They met again the next day. Twenty-three days later, attempting to pitch through pain in a freezing-cold game at North Dakota, Skubal blew out his arm. He had Tommy John surgery and effectively fell off the map.
Skubal had done just enough to generate passing interest from MLB clubs. He kept in touch with Boras Corp. as he sought an adviser entering his draft year. Around the holidays, still sidelined and recovering from surgery, Skubal called Boras Corp. "I appreciate you guys," Skubal said, "but I'm going to go with some different representation." Boras responded: "Give us one more meeting."
The next day, Boras and his lieutenants traveled to Arizona, sat in Skubal's living room, and made a pitch to the family, comparing the earnings of Boras clients to those of players with other agencies. "He basically sent me down every single number of draft, arbitration, free-agent contracts, everything," Skubal once said. The numbers weren't particularly close. "I was like, 'Well, that's good information.'"
The numbers and the presentation represent common Boras tactics, methods he has used to sway other players from other agencies numerous times before. Skubal, though, was also flattered that Boras came to see him on a day's notice, particularly when he was far from a touted draft prospect. It was enough to change his mind. "I told them no," Skubal said. "I don't think he's used to that. So I think that's why the big guns were brought out."
Many forget the Arizona Diamondbacks drafted Skubal in the 29th round of the 2017 draft. Skubal opted to return to school. The next year, still building back from surgery, he had a 4.16 ERA and walked 6.3 batters per nine innings. Boras advised him through a draft process in which Skubal was not selected until the ninth round. "I'm not sure how many people even knew who he was," Boras said. Boras Corp. leveraged a longstanding relationship just to get Skubal selected.
It was draft day in 2018, and the Detroit Tigers were preparing for their next pick. David Chadd, then the Tigers' assistant general manager, was on the phone with Chiamparino. A player the Tigers were interested in—another Boras client—had just been selected. Chiamparino started talking up Skubal. The Tigers had scouted Skubal and had mixed reviews. They saw the upside but also shared concerns over the surgery and the walk rate. Chiamparino shared more about Skubal, touting not only his talent but also his mental makeup. "David didn't exactly have him high on the old draft list as we were halfway through the draft," Boras said, "but he certainly listened and did what research he could do." Chadd conferred with then-scouting director Scott Pleis and others. They agreed to roll the dice on a hard-throwing left-hander. The rest is history.
And now it has all led to this crux in time. Skubal is a two-time Cy Young Award winner. He is a member of the MLBPA's executive subcommittee, a de facto champion for labor. Last winter, Boras and the Tigers went to an arbitration hearing. Skubal's side came out victorious with an arbitration-record $32 million contract. Now, with the possibility of a lockout looming and MLB's existing financial structure at risk, Boras is seeking a record contract for his star client.
"The anticipated offseason was sort of a bearish (beginning)," Boras said Wednesday in his annual pun-filled address to reporters. "It's very clear that there is a dominant, strong, Sku-Bull market. It's pretty clear that teams are not devoid of pursuing their championship fortunes. They understand there's only one Tarik card."
Although Boras did not say it outright, he strongly suggested Skubal will aim to sign before the impending Dec. 1 lockout, just as star Boras clients Marcus Semien and Corey Seager did four years ago. Yoshinobu Yamamoto holds the current record for the largest contract for a starting pitcher at 12 years and $325 million. Much of the baseball industry expects Skubal to shatter that mark. But how exactly this market plays out in the next three weeks could be fascinating.
Perhaps the Los Angeles Dodgers should remain the favorites. Skubal went from the Tigers to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. By all accounts, the Dodgers loved him, and he loved the Dodgers. Yet reporting around the industry suggests the Dodgers could be wary of handing out such a lucrative commitment, given both the possibility of MLB implementing a salary cap and the fact owner Mark Walter is under federal investigation. The Dodgers are scheduled to meet with Skubal in person. So are the New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, and possibly others next week.
The Mets loom as perhaps the one team willing to hand Skubal a blank check. Two years ago, owner Steve Cohen gave Boras client Juan Soto a historic 15-year, $765 million deal. This month, though, could also force Skubal to make difficult choices. For as much as money will surely play a role in his decision, Skubal was also born in Northern California and grew up in Arizona. He has family in both states. His wife is from Arizona, and the couple has two young sons. The idea of a West Coast team—or at least a team that has an Arizona spring training site—could have natural, emotional appeal.
Winning could also be a factor on Skubal's mind. He pitched twice in bitter Game 5 losses during his career with the Tigers. His trade to the Dodgers did not end in the World Series parade or the fulfillment of a dynasty it was intended to produce. Boras on Wednesday compared Skubal to past clients such as Greg Maddux, Kevin Brown, Barry Zito, and Max Scherzer, all pitchers who eventually won World Series titles. "If we look over a 30- or 40-year period, we might have less than 10 of these aces that are capable of winning multiple Cy Youngs," Boras said.
If the Dodgers are not willing to pay, and if the Mets do not check every box, perhaps another team such as the Padres could enter the fray as a serious suitor. This week at the general managers meetings, Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris would not comment on his team's interest in a reunion with Skubal, citing a policy of not talking about free agents. Boras on Wednesday would not say whether Skubal would consider signing a shorter-term contract with a higher annual average value. Asked if more than two or three teams would be in the market for Skubal's services, Boras only launched into another comedic bit. "In the deep water is a talent treasure," Boras said. "There's no time to come up for air. So teams have filled their tanks, and they're all clearly ready for the Skubal dive."
The Skubal conversation is likely to dominate the industry for the rest of the month. It has all come a long way since that meeting in Skubal's living room 10 years ago. Midway through Boras' hourlong media session Wednesday, the agent's phone went off. Boras pulled the device from his pocket and silenced it. "Just another owner begging me to meet with Skubal," he said.
Key Analysis
Skubal's journey from an overlooked recruit to a two-time Cy Young winner underscores the importance of persistence and belief. Boras's early investment in Skubal, even after being initially rejected, has now positioned both for a potentially record-breaking deal. As the baseball world awaits Skubal's decision, the outcome will not only impact his future but also signal the financial direction of the sport amid labor uncertainty.
Originally reported by theathleticuk.