reviewjournal
The Week 8 Thursday night college football slate features three games across different conferences, with East Carolina visiting Memphis in a key matchup. The Tigers are favored by 10 points at home, and the total is set at 54.5. While both teams have had disappointing seasons relative to expectations, the defensive trends and offensive inefficiencies point to a low-scoring affair.
East Carolina sits at 3-3, and Memphis is 5-2. The Pirates likely feel they should be 5-1, with their only loss coming to Alabama. Instead, they suffered a home loss to an Appalachian State team that has struggled since, and fell to UAB last week. The Tigers, meanwhile, had hoped to contend for a Group of Six College Football Playoff berth but have stumbled in conference play.
A major reason for East Carolina's struggles is the transfer portal. The Pirates lost quarterback Katin Houser, who transferred to Illinois after posting a 19/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and completing 65.9% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt while taking just 13 sacks. They also lost wide receiver Anthony Smith to the NFL after he caught over 1,000 yards worth of passes. Replacements Emory Williams and Mitch Griffis have combined for an 11/4 TD/INT ratio, just 6.3 yards per attempt, and have already taken 12 sacks. The running game, led by TJ Engleman Jr. (6.9 yards per carry), has been more productive than last season, but the passing attack has cratered.
Defensively, East Carolina has been solid under head coach Blake Harrell. The Pirates rank 23rd nationally in yards per play allowed (4.65), an improvement on last year's unit that was 36th (5.13). They have 18 sacks in six games, tied for 14th in sacks per game. However, last year's defense was +14 in turnover margin with 24 takeaways; this year's group has only eight takeaways and is -2 overall.
Memphis is coming off a turnover-plagued loss to Tulane in which the Tigers gave the ball away six times, including a pick-6 right before halftime. Quarterback Marcus Stokes threw five of those interceptions. Despite the giveaways, Memphis's defense held Tulane to 24 points and 325 yards. The Tigers' offense gained 488 yards but scored only 17 points. Tulane recorded seven sacks and nine tackles for loss, something Harrell surely noticed on film. Memphis's defense has improved recently, allowing just 4.94 yards per play in three conference games this month after giving up more than 6.5 yards per play in its first four games.
Key Analysis
East Carolina's offense is a major concern. The loss of Houser and Smith to the transfer portal and NFL has left the passing game ineffective, and the offensive line has struggled to protect the quarterback. Memphis's defense has tightened up in conference play, and the Pirates' defense, while improved, hasn't generated the turnovers it did last season. With Memphis's offense prone to turnovers and East Carolina's offense lacking firepower, points will be hard to come by. The under 54.5 is the smart play.
Pick: Under 54.5.
Originally reported by reviewjournal.