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The Phillies and Cubs are out. So are the Braves and Padres. What remains in the National League are the top two seeds, set to renew acquaintances in a rematch of last October's championship series. The Dodgers and Brewers will battle for a spot in the World Series.
How They Got Here
Los Angeles rode its decorated rotation past Atlanta in the NLDS, posting a 1.69 ERA over 21 innings. Tarik Skubal (Game 1) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Game 3) were brilliant, while Tyler Glasnow (Game 4) battled through inconsistency to deliver a solid outing. Only Blake Snell (3 innings in Game 2) faltered. An aging Dodgers lineup did just enough, powered by timely home runs from veterans Kiké Hernández, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy. It was hardly a dominant performance, but Los Angeles accomplished what it needed to in the first step of its three-peat pursuit.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, ended a 12-game postseason road losing streak with its Game 4 NLDS clincher at Petco Park. That could be another indication that this Brewers club is legitimate, poised to reach the World Series for only the second time in franchise history and the first since 1982. Run prevention, as usual, carried the day against San Diego, with Milwaukee allowing just 2.5 runs per game. That came despite an uncharacteristically sloppy defensive series in which the Brewers committed five errors over four games. The offense wasn't overpowering either, but Milwaukee's lineup kept the line moving and created enough havoc to eliminate the Padres in a hard-fought series.
X-Factors
Dodgers: Will Smith and Shohei Ohtani
This duo combined for a dismal 3-for-29 with 11 strikeouts and zero extra-base hits against the Braves. Somehow, Smith and Ohtani looked even worse than that line suggests. It's hard to imagine the Dodgers advancing if these two critical cogs continue to struggle so profoundly. Ohtani is clearly not at 100 percent, having never fully recovered from the litany of late-season ailments that sent him to the IL for the first time in his Dodgers career. He appears skittish, uncertain, and uncomfortable at the plate, leading to uncharacteristically poor swing decisions, which in turn put him in bad counts and produce bad outcomes. The four-time MVP is still capable of brilliance—he's less than a year removed from the greatest single-game performance in NLCS history in Game 4—but that magic seems less likely from this diminished version of Ohtani.
Smith's situation is stranger. He missed nearly three months during the regular season but returned on Sept. 1 and looked like his best self for much of the final month (.948 September OPS). But his swing mechanics—at their best, the epitome of do-simple-perfect—are completely out of sync right now. He still provides immense value with his presence behind the plate, but this is not the game-changing offensive force who delivered the World Series-winning blast last year.
Brewers: Jackson Chourio
The 22-year-old had just three hits in Milwaukee's NLDS victory, but all three came in massive moments: a game-tying, two-run homer off Robbie Ray in Game 1, a walk-off single against Mason Miller in Game 2, and a go-ahead, laser-beam single in Game 4. While that timeliness is wonderful, a bit more production from Chourio feels like the easiest way for Milwaukee's offense to level up against the Dodgers. He's easily the most talented Brewers hitter and already the franchise's all-time postseason home run leader. Last year, Chourio blasted Milwaukee's only long ball against L.A. in the NLCS and was one of two Brewers with at least three hits in that series. For a team to go deep in October, special players need to do special things. There might not be a more special talent on the field (besides a healthy Ohtani) than this guy.
How They Win
Dodgers: Starting pitching plus something else
The Dodgers rotation, at this point, feels as reliable as any unit in the sport. But if L.A.'s offense continues to underwhelm, that might be enough. They need either (1) a few more hitters to step up, (2) a total lockdown showing from the bullpen, or (3) near-perfection from the already brilliant rotation. Option No. 1 is easily the likeliest path to victory. The Dodgers have so many talented, October-proven bats that it feels inevitable that one or more of Ohtani, Smith, Teoscar Hernández, Mookie Betts, or Andy Pages will catch fire. How many do and to what extent will likely determine whether the Dodgers reach the World Series for the third straight year. But Option No. 2 is a possibility as well. Or, if Skubal and Yamamoto both dominate in both of their starts, that might be enough.
Brewers: By not swinging at balls
In the 2025 regular season, Milwaukee had MLB's lowest chase rate at 25.5%. But in their NLCS capitulation against the Dodgers, that number skyrocketed to 34.5%. Come October, some jump in chase rate is expected; the best pitchers are throwing harder and more often. Still, that's an unsustainably high spike, and it sank the Brewers offense. This regular season, the Brewers once again led the sport in chase rate at 26.8%, setting up an unstoppable force against an immovable object in the NLCS. Los Angeles pitching staff ranked first in chase rate at 33.1%. Skubal, Snell, and Yamamoto all ranked in the 85th percentile. Laying off pitches outside the strike zone, particularly early in counts, would be a total game-changer for this low-power Brewers offense. Doing so would force Dodgers hurlers into hitters counts, run pitch counts higher, and bring the bullpen in play earlier. That's when damage happens. Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, Andrew Vaughn, Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick, and Brice Turang were all 20th percentile in chase rate. They'll need to keep that going. And Milwaukee's most swing-happy character, Chourio, has to stay disciplined.
How They Lose
Dodgers: Blake Snell bombs again
In the NLDS, Los Angeles used Snell in Game 2 and Yamamoto in Game 3, but they're likely to swap those two for the NLCS. That decision could have an interesting trickle-down effect if Snell and Glasnow can't work deep in games. Splitting up Snell and Glasnow against Atlanta meant that Los Angeles bullpen wouldn't need to cover a multitude of innings on back-to-back days. But with Skubal and Yamamoto lined up for two starts each in this series, the Dodgers won't have that luxury this time around. Getting any semblance of length from Snell could be critical.
Brewers: A rerun of last year
The 2025 Brewers looked completely overmatched against the Los Angeles pitching staff throughout that brief NLCS. But while their lineup is markedly better this go-around, Milwaukee's offense still operates with that same high-contact, low-power style. That strategy worked well enough against a good, not great, Padres staff, but this Dodgers group is a different beast. Milwaukee's run prevention apparatus, at this point, has proven itself capable of keeping scores low and games close, no matter who's on the mound. But the Brewers can't win ballgames 0-0.
Series Prediction: Brewers in 7
The gap has closed. Last year, Milwaukee's offense was helpless against Los Angeles pitching staff, while the Ohtani-led Dodgers lineup hummed against the Brewers arms. But this aging Dodgers position-player group looks shakier than ever, and the Brewers bats have all leveled up. To win the series, Milwaukee will need to win at least one game started by Skubal or Yamamoto. That's a tough task, but this team appears up for the fight, and Chourio has enough pixie dust to knock off baseball's big, bad juggernaut in what should be an unforgettable battle.
Originally reported by yahoo.