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This time last year, Arch Manning was the most valuable NIL player in college football and a Heisman Trophy contender at the helm of the preseason No.
1 team in the nation.
A year later, the expectations around the Texas quarterback are considerably more measured, as was his latest NIL valuation when heading into the 2026 season.
Arch saw a dramatic NIL drop Heading into his first start last season, Manning was ranked far and away as the most valuable player in college football at any position.
How valuable? Worth about $6.8 million in total, according to the NIL estimation rankings compiled by On3 Sports analysts.
This time around? That number took a dive, along with his ranking, landing at No.
51 nationally and worth $2.5 million, a more than 63 percent loss in value year over year.
Was that fall warranted? Looking at that development, veteran college football analyst David Pollack sees a problem.
It is important to realize, if I was valuing Arch this year, did I see the early season struggles? Absolutely.
But I also saw the late season, where he put it together and got better and grew and grew, where he started to meet that talent, Pollack said.
He added: So I would not agree with that number of where hes valued.
What is that value really? On3s NIL rankings dont simply tally dollars earned from deals, but rather creates a number based on inputs like roster value, marketability, performance, and influence, with those last two factors in particular seeing declines after his debut as the starter.
But Manning clearly hasnt struggled to find deals, landing arrangements with major brands like Red Bull, Panini America, EA Sports, Uber, Raising Canes, and Warby Parker, with the quarterback netting a reported $3.5 million, according to Opendorse.
Thats in addition to a $2 million outlay straight from Texas in the form of revenue sharing, collective payouts, and school compensation, a significant discount from what he could have earned, which he took to allow the school to pay for other roster needs.
Taking those amounts into consideration, Manning is still clearly a highly valuable player and one who is earning slightly more than the average starting quarterback whatever his national ranking might be.
Archs debut was a roller coaster You could be forgiven for thinking that Arch Manning was a bust in September.
His unproductive start in a loss at Ohio State revealed mechanical and technical issues and questionable decision making, and the quarterback continued to struggle over the next few weeks, putting up meager numbers and even heard boos from his home crowd.
Starting off at the top as the No.
1 overall recruit in America and having the name Manning across his back naturally resulted in a tsunami of preseason hype, and analysts and fans were eager to reverse course and douse the quarterback in criticism.
But his production dramatically improved over the second half of the season, and Manning led the Longhorns to statement victories against ranked SEC foes in rival Oklahoma and a great Vanderbilt team, and then upset undefeated rival Texas A&M.
Whatever Manning may be worth as a dollar amount, he remains the invaluable centerpiece of a Texas offense in 2026 that has SEC and national championship aspirations.
James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ.
He has covered football for a decade, previously managing several team sites and publishing national content for 247Sports.com for five years.
His work has also been published on CBSSports.com.
He founded College Football HQ in 2020, and the site joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022 and the On SI network in 2024.