headtopics
When the Chicago Cubs captured the 2016 World Series, their pitching staff was built on finesse rather than firepower. Kyle Hendricks, known as 'The Professor,' led the way with a 2.13 ERA, the lowest in MLB that season and the first by a Cub since 1938. He started the pennant-clinching Game 6 of the NLCS and Game 7 of the World Series in Cleveland. Remarkably, the 2016 Cubs ranked 17th in average fastball velocity yet produced the fourth-most fWAR.
A decade ago, velocity was not the end-all for a pitching staff. But in 2026, the Cubs' lack of velocity became a glaring issue. Their four-seam fastball averaged 93.6 mph, fourth-slowest in MLB. The three teams below them—the Arizona Diamondbacks, Kansas City Royals, and Washington Nationals—all missed the playoffs. Shota Imanaga, who led the Cubs in innings, averaged just 91.6 mph on his fastball, the seventh-slowest in the league.
The Cubs were an anomaly in 2026: they hit the most home runs in the NL but also allowed the most. While the offense and defense excelled, the pitching faltered. Their fWAR of 6.0 was third-worst in MLB, ahead of only Kansas City and Washington. The staff's strikeout rate of 20.8% ranked eighth-lowest. That lack of swing-and-miss proved unsustainable in the playoffs, where pitching dominates. In the NL Wild Card Series against San Diego, Cubs pitchers allowed 12 runs, five via home runs, while the offense managed just one run.
Key Analysis
President Jed Hoyer acknowledged the need for improvement: 'When I think about the offseason, when I think about seasons to come, that has to be our goal—to get our pitching infrastructure and our pitching quality to the level of our position players.' The link between velocity and production is clear. The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Yankees, two of the hardest-throwing staffs at 95.9 and 95.3 mph respectively, have excelled. Meanwhile, Cubs' pitching development has lagged, with few success stories like Cade Horton, whose UCL injury clouds his future, and Justin Steele, who has missed nearly two seasons after UCL surgery.
Hoyer admitted the gap has widened: 'Right now, the gap has widened a bit. We need to address it.' The Cubs' first step this offseason must be to revamp the rotation with velocity. Only then can they overcome the hurdle that has blocked another championship for the past decade.
Originally reported by headtopics.