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As the college football season enters its final six weeks, the pressure is mounting on several programs that began the year with lofty aspirations. Losses are piling up, and what once seemed like promising campaigns are now teetering on the edge of collapse. The Forde-Yard Dash identifies Texas, Alabama, and Notre Dame as teams in crisis, while Ohio State deals with a major injury and Georgia and Miami show signs of vulnerability.
Texas: From No. 1 to Unranked Losses
Texas started the season ranked No. 5 in the AP poll and climbed to No. 1 for four weeks. But the Longhorns have since fallen to No. 19 after dropping two consecutive games to unranked opponents, both times after holding double-digit leads. The focus has shifted from quarterback Arch Manning to head coach Steve Sarkisian, who calls the offensive plays and oversees a program with a massive payroll that is underperforming. The offense has struggled, and the defense hasn't forced a turnover in three games. Sarkisian now faces a critical decision about how to allocate his time as the team prepares for a tough stretch against ranked foes Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU, plus a rivalry game against Texas A&M. Playoff hopes hinge on finishing with two or three losses; a 10-2 record would likely secure a spot, but 9-3 would be dicey.
Alabama: Inconsistency Under DeBoer
Alabama opened at No. 13, rose to No. 6, but now sits at No. 13 again after home and road losses to Georgia and Tennessee, respectively. Coach Kalen DeBoer has struggled to maintain momentum, with each high followed by a low. The hype around quarterback Keelon Russell has cooled after erratic play, including three turnovers against Tennessee and eight total on the season. The running game, which was a strength early, was stifled by the Volunteers. The road ahead includes only one ranked opponent, LSU, in what could be a playoff elimination game, and the Iron Bowl at home. Like Texas, the difference between two and three losses is significant for Alabama's playoff chances.
Notre Dame: Doubt Creeps In
Notre Dame began at No. 4 with the motto 'leave no doubt' after last year's playoff snub. But a controversial loss at BYU has introduced doubt. The Fighting Irish are 16-0 against teams outside the AP top 10 but 0-3 against top-10 teams, with all three losses by a combined eight points. Fans are upset about a no-call on pass interference and a clock error that ended the game prematurely. However, the team must win a big game decisively to erase doubts. Upcoming games against No. 1 Miami and No. 23 SMU are crucial; a 10-2 record might leave Notre Dame on the outside looking in again.
Ohio State: Quarterback Uncertainty
Ohio State is ranked No. 3 after a big road win at Indiana, but the focus is on the injury to quarterback Julian Sayin, who will miss several weeks. The Buckeyes need someone to get the ball to explosive receiver Jeremiah Smith, but the backup situation is unclear. Freshman Luke Fahey got emergency reps at Indiana and went 0 for 2, while sophomore Tavien St. Clair hasn't played since Sept. 19. The open week gives Ohio State time to prepare someone for a trip to USC on Oct. 31 and beyond. The resume is strong at 6-1, but if things go sideways, the question becomes whether Sayin will be back for the playoff.
Georgia and Miami: Shaky but OK
Georgia's home loss to Auburn is another example of the big-win hangover effect plaguing the SEC. Quarterback Gunner Stockton had his worst game with three turnovers, and the Bulldogs were outrushed by 79 yards. Coach Kirby Smart's program seemed to have outgrown its tendency for one meltdown game per season, but this performance resembled that old trait. Georgia faces three straight ranked opponents after an off week. Miami survived a chaotic overtime game against Florida State, but the defense gave up season highs in points, yards, and yards per play. Consecutive road games at North Carolina and Notre Dame loom large; losing one is acceptable, but losing both would be a problem.
Ongoing Crises: Oklahoma, Penn State, Oregon
Oklahoma's only highlight was a win over Texas in the Red River Rivalry; the rest has been misery with a 3-3 record and 36 total points in those losses. Quarterback John Mateer threw three more interceptions against Kentucky, and the offense remains broken. Penn State's losing streak is now four, and the victory count against power-conference teams is zero. Year 1 under Matt Campbell has been a slog, with quarterback Rocco Becht overmatched. Oregon won a horror-show home game against Nebraska but started former walk-on Brock Thomas over Dylan Raiola, nearly costing them the game. If Dante Moore doesn't return, Oregon's offense is probably doomed.
Dash Playoff Bracket
Each week, the Dash seeds the 12 teams for the College Football Playoff as if today were Selection Sunday. The field: BYU (6-0), Miami (6-0), Ohio State (6-1), UCLA (6-0), Georgia (6-1), Notre Dame (6-1), Indiana (6-1), Mississippi (5-1), Kentucky (6-1), Tennessee (6-1), Texas Tech (6-0), Boise State (5-1). Also considered: Wake Forest, Utah, Iowa, Northwestern, Houston, SMU, LSU, USC, Alabama, Texas, Florida, James Madison, Oregon State.
First round matchups: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia; No. 11 Texas Tech at No. 6 Notre Dame; No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Indiana; No. 9 Kentucky at No. 8 Mississippi. Quarterfinals: Cotton Bowl: No. 4 UCLA vs. winner of Boise State/Georgia; Rose Bowl: No. 3 Ohio State vs. winner of Texas Tech/Notre Dame; Peach Bowl: No. 2 Miami vs. winner of Tennessee/Indiana; Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 BYU vs. winner of Kentucky/Mississippi.
Four teams have been ranked No. 1: Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Miami. Teams ranked No. 2: Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State.