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The 2025 college football season has been defined by a startling pattern: teams following up statement victories with baffling losses. Week 8 only intensified this trend, with a slew of high-profile upsets that left fans and analysts scratching their heads.
Perhaps the most shocking result came from Provo, where BYU—fresh off a monumental win over then-No. 2 Notre Dame that vaulted the Cougars to their highest ranking since 1984—fell to UCF 39-31 in double overtime. The Knights, who had dropped consecutive games to Houston and Oklahoma State, seemed like a tune-up before BYU's anticipated Holy War clash with Utah on Nov. 7. Instead, a series of late-game twists, including a blocked field goal and a crucial 10-second runoff, sent the game to overtime, where UCF ultimately prevailed.
The upset bug also bit No. 11 Tennessee, which had just knocked off then-No. 6 Alabama. The Volunteers fell to unranked South Carolina 27-24 on a last-second field goal. Similarly, No. 7 Ole Miss, dominant in a win over then-No. 13 Missouri the previous week, lost to No. 19 Texas 34-27 despite a spirited second-half comeback attempt.
The weekend began with six undefeated FBS teams; by Saturday night, that number had been halved. Texas Tech's loss to Cincinnati and James Madison's overtime defeat to App State further reshaped the playoff landscape.
Key Analysis
This season's epidemic of letdown losses is not confined to any one conference. The SEC has seen its share: Ole Miss followed a win over former coach Lane Kiffin's team with a flat performance against Florida, which then suffered a blowout loss to Missouri. Texas beat Ohio State early but stumbled against Oklahoma after defeating Tennessee. Mississippi State toppled Missouri only to be routed by Alabama, which then lost to Georgia, which then lost to Auburn.
The trend extends beyond the SEC. Minnesota's emotional win over Michigan—which coach P.J. Fleck called one of the best days of his life—was followed by a loss to Purdue. Oregon beat USC in a heated ranked matchup but then lost to UCLA. The list goes on.
BYU had ample opportunities to avoid becoming the latest victim. UCF passed on a go-ahead field goal with 1:42 left, only to be stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 1. The Knights then forced a three-and-out and benefited from a BYU personal foul that turned a 61-yard field goal attempt into a 46-yarder. BYU blocked the kick, but UCF recovered behind the line of scrimmage. However, kicker Will Stone's helmet had come off, triggering a 10-second runoff that ended regulation. In overtime, UCF scored a touchdown, added another after a questionable roughing-the-kicker penalty, and sealed the upset with a fourth-down stop.
Analysts are searching for explanations—increased parity, the pressure of playoff contention—but statistical variance may be the simplest answer. Whatever the cause, the result is a season of unprecedented unpredictability.
Texas Bounces Back
After consecutive losses that knocked them from the top ranking, Texas faced a must-win situation against No. 7 Ole Miss. The Longhorns checked all the boxes: keeping playoff hopes alive, silencing doubts about Arch Manning's status as QB1, and avoiding a full-blown crisis in Austin. The first half showcased Texas at its best, with Manning efficient, the running game effective, and the defense dominant in building a 24-3 lead. But Ole Miss stormed back, starting with a strip sack of Manning for a touchdown. The Rebels tied the game early in the third quarter before Texas reclaimed a 10-point advantage. Ole Miss made it dicey with a field goal and an onside kick recovery, but a last-ditch heave was intercepted, sealing the 34-27 Texas win.
While the victory was quality—Ole Miss is a dangerous top-10 team—it may not significantly alter national perception. Texas is talented but flawed, capable of competing with anyone (as shown against Ohio State) but likely to suffer at least one more loss in its final five games. For many programs, this position would be enviable; for Texas, it remains underwhelming.
Down Goes Texas Tech
Texas Tech had seemingly turned a corner with a 53-25 demolition of Arizona State, a performance that suggested the Red Raiders were ready to contend. But any momentum evaporated in a 37-24 loss to Cincinnati, leaving Texas Tech with little margin for error in its pursuit of a playoff berth. Fortunately for the Red Raiders, neither BYU nor Utah appears on their remaining schedule, making a path to the Big 12 championship game more manageable. The conference title is the most direct route to the playoff, but even a runner-up finish might not guarantee a spot—especially after BYU was left out last season with an 11-2 record. However, the Big 12 is stronger this year and better positioned to earn two bids.
Group of 6 CFP Spot Up for Grabs
James Madison's dream season hit a snag Thursday night when App State upset the Dukes 34-31 in overtime. The loss dealt a severe blow to JMU's hopes of representing the Group of 6 in the College Football Playoff, especially given its schedule lacks a Power 4 opponent. Now, the door is wide open for other contenders. The favorite is likely the Pac-12 champion—either Boise State or Oregon State. Both teams lost early to Power 4 foes but have been rolling since. Boise State pulled away from Washington State for a 31-10 win on Saturday. Oregon State, under new coach JaMarcus Shepard, is 5-2 after a 2-10 season, fueled by an exciting offense featuring freshman receiver Jesse Legree and quarterback Braden Atkinson, the reigning Jerry Rice Award winner. The Beavers travel to Boise State on Nov. 14 in what could be the most consequential Group of 6 game of the year.
Closing Bell
- Buy: LaNorris Sellers – South Carolina's quarterback delivered a spectacular touchdown in the massive win over Tennessee.
- Sell: Roughing the passer call – Arguably the most undeserved roughing penalty in football history.
- Hold: Indiana – The Hoosiers needed overtime to beat Michigan, and QB Josh Hoover completed just 8-of-18 passes for 81 yards. Indiana has been a few plays away from losing in three of its past four Big Ten wins.
- Buy: Will Stein – The first-year Kentucky coach has the Wildcats off to a 7-1 start after a 34-17 win over Vanderbilt. Stein was Oregon's offensive coordinator for three years, and the Ducks have struggled without him.
- Sell: Oregon – The unranked Ducks lost 21-10 to Illinois, giving them three losses before November for the first time since 2018.
- Buy: Wisconsin – The Badgers are quietly 5-2 after a 24-7 win over No. 16 USC, with both losses coming to top-10 teams (Notre Dame and UCLA). The remaining schedule is manageable.
- Sell: Northern Illinois' move to the Mountain West – The Huskies fell to 0-7 with a 56-21 loss to Hawai'i and are dangerously close to a winless season.
- Buy: Stanford – The Cardinal improved to 4-4 with a win over NC State, showing progress in a rebuilding year.
- Sell: NC State – The loss to Stanford was so bad that head coach Dave Doeren was fired less than 24 hours later, a white-flag decision from the administration.
Originally reported by espn.