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As the college football season reached its midpoint in Week 6, several programs saw their playoff dreams all but vanish. While some teams made significant progress toward the College Football Playoff, others suffered damaging losses that have left their hopes hanging by a thread.
Three teams in particular—LSU, Oregon, and Florida—took major hits to their playoff potential in Week 6. Each now faces an uphill battle, needing near-perfect play the rest of the way to have any chance of reviving their flagging playoff hopes.
LSU Tigers
The Tigers' loss to Ole Miss was not alarming on its own, but a second road defeat early in the season at Kentucky has left LSU with a steep climb just to reach the playoff conversation. According to ESPN's FPI ratings, LSU has only a 16.1% chance of making the playoff, trailing Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ole Miss, and essentially even with Missouri in the SEC hierarchy. The Tigers still must face Alabama and Texas, plus a road trip to Tennessee. Even finishing 9-3 appears to be a tall order after a 4-2 start in Lane Kiffin's first season at the helm.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon had already suffered a devastating loss to Oklahoma State, then added a second defeat against UCLA. That conference loss dropped the Ducks' playoff chances to 9.8% per ESPN's FPI. They now trail not only UCLA but also Nebraska, Iowa, USC, Northwestern, and Wisconsin among Big Ten teams vying for a third playoff spot. Like LSU, Oregon's schedule leaves no room for further mistakes. The Ducks host Nebraska this weekend and Northwestern before traveling to Ohio State. Oregon has been wildly inconsistent and seems unlikely to suddenly fix all its issues.
Florida Gators
Florida came off a loss to Missouri and then dropped another home game to South Carolina. In those two defeats, the Gators allowed 83 points and 953 yards. Jon Sumrall's team was probably never more than a fringe playoff contender, even after beating Ole Miss. But a 38-19 loss to South Carolina leaves Florida with just a 2.6% chance of reaching the CFP per FPI. The Gators' next two opponents are Texas and Georgia, making a slide to 4-4 far more likely than a return to playoff contention. Florida's first four games were an overachievement, but they could be in the midst of a four-game nightmare that sees them regress to average.