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After a week off, the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) return to action on Sunday, hosting the Los Angeles Chargers (0-5) in an AFC West showdown at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chargers, led by head coach Jim Harbaugh, have stumbled out of the gate, failing to build any momentum under new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. Veteran quarterback Justin Herbert, a two-time Pro Bowler, is enduring a career-worst stretch, and the team's 0-5 record reflects those struggles.
Chiefs Offense vs. Chargers Defense
Kansas City's ground game has been a strength, with running back Kenneth Walker III emerging as a premier threat. Walker has carried the ball 87 times for 537 yards and four touchdowns, and he could be in line for another heavy workload against a Chargers rush defense that ranks 14th in EPA per carry (-0.119) and 18th in success rate. Walker has been particularly effective against stacked boxes, averaging 7.31 yards per carry when facing eight or more defenders. With wide receivers Rashee Rice (hamstring) and Tyquan Thornton (ankle) sidelined, the Chiefs may lean even more on Walker.
The passing attack could face challenges, as the injuries at receiver and the continued absence of left tackle Josh Simmons may complicate matters for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has the third-highest share of passes behind or at the line of scrimmage (32.0%), averaging 1.6 yards behind the sticks when throwing. The Chargers' pass defense, coordinated by Chris O'Leary, is respectable but somewhat untested, allowing the ninth-lowest dropback EPA per play (0.006) and ranking 11th in pressure rate (38.9%). Los Angeles will be without safety Derwin James (hamstring), often called the "Travis Kelce stopper," as well as cornerback Donte Jackson (hamstring). Linebacker Bud Dupree (neck), linebacker Daiyan Henley (knee), and defensive end Dalvin Tomlinson (hamstring) are questionable.
Chiefs Defense vs. Chargers Offense
The Chargers' offense has been a major disappointment under McDaniel. Los Angeles averages just 1.4 points per drive (second-fewest in the NFL) and 24.4 yards per possession (fourth-fewest). The running game has been ineffective, yet the Chargers pass at the lowest rate over expected (-11.6%), sticking to a run-heavy approach that ranks 28th in rush EPA per play. Second-year running back Omarion Hampton has yet to break out. Herbert, meanwhile, ranks 29th out of 30 qualified quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play (-0.117) and leads the league with 13 turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. He has completed a career-low 59.4% of his passes with 5.0 adjusted yards per attempt, also a personal worst. His receiving corps is banged up, with wideout Tre Harris (hamstring) out.
Kansas City's pass rush could finally get on track this week. The Chargers will be without tackle Joe Alt (neck), and Los Angeles ranks in the 10th percentile with the fourth-highest pressure rate allowed (43.8%) and the second-highest sack rate (10.6%). Defensive tackle Chris Jones and defensive ends George Karlaftis and R Mason Thomas could be primed for big games. Former Chargers linebacker Drue Tranquill may also look to make an impact against his old team.
Special Teams
Chargers special teams coordinator Ryan Ficken, in his fifth year, received praise from Chiefs STC Dave Toub earlier in the week, but the data paints a different picture. Pro Football Focus grades Los Angeles' special teams as 13th-best (77.3), a significant drop from first in 2023 and 15th in 2024. TruMedia ranks the Chargers 31st in special teams EPA at -20.68 through five games, including being in the sixth percentile in penalty EPA (-5.18), kicking EPA (-16.84), kickoffs returned (66.7%), and yards per punt return (3.8). The Chargers are also last in average starting field position on defense and third-worst on offense.
Confidence Meter: 8.8
The Chargers' season appears to be slipping away, barring a miraculous turnaround. The Chiefs have a clear advantage on offense, and Los Angeles is dealing with a lengthy injury report. However, divisional games often defy expectations, and the Chiefs are not at full strength either. The jury is still out on Steve Spagnuolo's defense, particularly the pass rush and safety group. The only realistic path to an upset for Los Angeles is Herbert snapping out of his funk and putting the team on his shoulders, but there is little evidence to suggest that will happen. Unless the Chiefs fail to show up, they are in a favorable position.