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The ripple effects of Leo Carlssons massive raise after the Anaheim Ducks matched the Philadelphia Flyers $90 million offer sheet are fanning out across all NHL markets.
More: Will Columbus Blue Jackets' Adam Fantilli sign an offer sheet? That includes Columbus, where the Blue Jackets must re-sign three key restricted free agents led by top center Adam Fantilli , who mirrors Carlsson statistically.
Getting Fantillis signature on a contract with an average annual value between $10-12 million, even short term, no longer feels realistic thanks to the Flyers hurling a giant boulder into what used to be a pristine summer lake for NHL GMs.
Now, it's anyone's guess how much it might take to keep him.
Carlsson, whom the Ducks retained by matching a heavily front-loaded offer worth $18 million annually, is now the NHL's highest-paid player.
Selected second overall in 2023, one spot ahead of Fantilli, Carlsson has a career scoring line of 61 goals, 80 assists and 141 points.
Fantilli, selected third by the Blue Jackets , has 67-73-140 over 213 games in his first three NHL seasons, including a career-high 31 goals in 2024-25, to almost match Carlsson point-for-point, although Fantilli has a significantly lower plus/minus rating of -30 to -1 for Anaheims top center.
The two play the same position with different styles, but the results are almost carbon copies.
Fantillis asking price has almost certainly shot up since Carlssons offer sheet, which could put the Blue Jackets in a bind despite the team sitting on what PuckPedia, an NHL salary tracking site, calculates as $23.3 million in cap space.
"That's fair to say," Blue Jackets president/general manager Don Waddell said.
"The price of RFAs went up, and now it's up to us to find a fair deal for all our RFAs." Heres how things could get sticky for the Blue Jackets: Columbus Blue Jackets face arbitration with Cole Sillinger, Jet Greaves The Jackets other two unsigned RFAs, forward Cole Sillinger and Jet Greaves , each filed for player-elected salary arbitration before the NHLs July 5 deadline.
Each now has a hearing date in Toronto.
Greaves is scheduled to go there on July 23 and Sillinger on July 27, although players no longer have to attend with their agents.
Waddell plans to attend, if necessary, but he'd like to re-sign all three of his RFAs and avoid arbitration.
After all, the Blue Jackets havent been part of an arbitration hearing in 25 years.
Unfortunately for the team, that might be what it takes to get things moving.
Waddell said talks are happening with the agents for all three players on a regular basis, but nothing has materialized yet.
Since Greaves and Sillinger elected arbitration, the Blue Jackets got to choose whether they would negotiate on one- or two-year contracts.
They chose one year for each, since both players will reach unrestricted free agency in two years.
According to AFP Analytics , a site that projects NHL contract values, it could cost the Blue Jackets $4.3 million to keep Greaves and $4.2 million to retain Sillinger on one-year deals.
If so, thats a combined $8.5 million that would leave $14.8 million to re-sign Fantilli, whose biggest form of leverage, like Carlsson's, is an offer sheet.
Is that enough to get it done? It might not be if Fantillis new price rises anywhere close to Carlsson's stratosphere, even if he agrees to a lower amount.
Waddell and all GMs like to keep at least $1 million in cap space going into each season, if possible, so the Jackets available pool to re-sign Fantilli could be in the $13 million range should Greaves and Sillinger each land new deals worth roughly $4 million each.
Thats less than ideal in the NHLs new landscape, but its a possibility.
Waddell feels confident that he'll fit all three into his remaining cap space, though, even if Greaves and Sillinger go to arbitration.
"We'll be fine with whatever gets thrown our way," Waddell said.
"We have a pretty good idea of how the arbitrations are going to go, give or take a little bit, but we think we're in good shape from a cap standpoint." Columbus Blue Jackets should prioritize Adam Fantilli before arbitration Flipping things around, the Blue Jackets could help themselves out by figuring out a new contract with Fantilli and agent Pat Brisson before their arbitration cases.
Getting the biggest piece of the remaining pie settled would give provide a better idea of where the payroll is likely to climb starting next season while eliminating the threat of a gigantic offer sheet on Fantilli after paying Greaves and Sillinger.
It might also be easier to create salary space with trades while trying to fit Greaves and/or Sillinger's new salaries into the budget than it would to create room for a massive Fantilli raise.
Which teams are best positioned to sign Adam Fantilli? Its been less than a week since the Ducks matched the Flyers offer sheet for Carlsson on July 9, and neither Fantilli nor Chicago Blackhawks phenom Conor Bedard (2023 first overall) has signed offer sheets of their own.
Bedard recently injured a shoulder during an offseason training session and underwent surgery, but hes in the same talent tier as Carlsson and Fantilli.
The Blue Jackets are prepared to match any offer sheet to keep Fantilli.
"Yeah, 100%, it's hard to replace these young players," Waddell said.
"He'll be 22 in August, and it's hard to replace these kind of guys with the upside that Adam's got, and he continues to take strides, so he's an important piece." That Fantilli hasn't signed an offer sheet after Carlsson inked his deal is a good sign for the Blue Jackets, but theyre not out of the woods.
Theres a lot of summer left, and teams that have enough cap space and required draft pick compensation are plentiful.
If a team offered anything greater than or equal to $11,939,167 per season, which Fantilli would almost certainly draw, NHL rules would require that team to give Columbus four of its own first-round picks within the next five years before signing the 21-year-old.
Teams with enough cap space and necessary picks include the Flyers ($29.57 million), Blackhawks ($29.31 million), Detroit Red Wings ($19.57 million), Seattle Kraken ($18.41 million), Vancouver Canucks ($17.81 million), Pittsburgh Penguins ($16.93 million) and Calgary Flames ($14.88 million).
The San Jose Sharks , meanwhile, will get up to $8 million added to their summer cap space of $12.94 million once they place chronically injured center Logan Couture, 37, on long-term injured reserve for the final season of his contract.
Several of those teams have unsigned RFAs, like the Blue Jackets, while the Kraken, Canucks and Flames might not appeal to Fantilli based on distance from his familys home in Nobleton, Ontario.
It takes two to tango, and players who sign offer sheets know theres a chance theyll change teams, potentially, for years to come.
Fantilli has spoken glowingly about playing in Columbus, and its a relatively short trip for his family to watch him play at Nationwide Arena.
Those factors favor the Blue Jackets getting a deal done without an offer sheet, but that possibility cant be eliminated until hes signed.
Whats certain is that hes due for a gargantuan raise, whether from the Blue Jackets or somebody else, while Waddell wrestles with a changing offseason ecosphere.
"I've said all along, you've got to leave yourself cap space," Waddell said.
"If somebody decides to do [an offer sheet] on somebody, and he's an important player to us, then we have to be prepared to make that decision to match." Dispatch Blue Jackets reporter Brian Hedger can be reached at [email protected] This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Can Columbus Blue Jackets re-sign Adam Fantilli, avoid cap woes?.