nypost
The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Sunday night, marking a rematch of last October's NLCS that ended in a lopsided Dodgers sweep. In that series, Los Angeles outscored Milwaukee 15-4, outhit the Brewers 32-14, and led for 26 innings compared to Milwaukee's single inning. A rival scout described the Brewers' performance as 'utterly embarrassed,' noting that despite owning the National League's best regular-season record, they were thoroughly dominated.
Twelve months later, the Brewers have a shot at redemption. The backdrop is strikingly similar: Milwaukee again holds the higher seed and home-field advantage after a 103-win season built on a low-payroll roster, while the star-laden Dodgers remain heavy favorites. But this year, two rival NL scouts told the California Post that the Brewers could flip the script.
'It just feels like a different team,' Scout 1 said. Scout 2 added, 'I think a big part of this entire season for them is the redemption factor.'
Key Analysis
The biggest difference for Milwaukee is the emergence of Jacob Misiorowski. The 24-year-old right-hander, a presumptive NL Cy Young winner, is expected to start Game 1 opposite Tarik Skubal. Last postseason, Misiorowski threw five innings of bulk relief in Game 3, striking out nine. His elite stuff—a 6-foot-7 frame with a 105 mph fastball—gives the Brewers a legitimate ace. However, the Dodgers have a knack for grinding down elite pitchers. 'They're gonna step into that box and just say, We probably aren't going to beat this guy, but we just need to get him out of the ballgame as early as possible,' Scout 2 said. Misiorowski needed 88 pitches to get through four innings in the NLDS against the Padres, but he has a strong track record versus Los Angeles, with two six-inning, one-run starts in the last two regular seasons, totaling 18 strikeouts.
Milwaukee's lineup, which batted a woeful .118 in last year's NLCS, has evolved. Jackson Chourio has developed into a bona fide star, while Brice Turang and William Contreras have gained another year of experience. Complementary pieces like Jake Bauers and Garrett Mitchell have emerged, and Christian Yelich showed signs of life in the NLDS after a career-worst regular season. The Brewers led MLB in batting average (.258), on-base percentage (.341), walk rate (10.6%), and chase rate (26.6%). Though they hit the second-fewest homers, they scored the second-most runs. 'They grind out at-bats. They're hard [to pitch to],' Scout 1 said. 'Obviously not as talented from one to nine—but they have the same kind of mentality' as the younger Dodgers teams.
On the other side, the Dodgers' offense has been more reliant on the long ball, which could play into Milwaukee's hands. The Brewers' pitching staff, featuring rookie Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA) and a bullpen that ranked third in reliever ERA (3.40), might be better equipped to contain Los Angeles. 'You need to be able to manufacture runs, so I would be more concerned about the [Dodgers] approach, where you're relying on the long ball,' Scout 2 said.
One major question mark for the Dodgers is Shohei Ohtani, who will not pitch due to right arm and left knee injuries. More concerning, the four-time MVP has been slumping at the plate, failing to homer since August 18 and going 2-for-13 in the NLDS. 'If you don't have your legs, then you look like he looks,' Scout 1 said. 'He just doesn't look healthy to me.' Scout 2 noted that while Ohtani still produces bat speed, the effort required is holding him back. Other stars like Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, and Kyle Tucker have helped compensate, but Ohtani's struggles could become a bigger issue.
Both scouts were optimistic about Milwaukee's chances. Scout 1 predicted a Brewers win in six games if they take one of the first two at home. Scout 2 agreed, outlining a path: win one of the first two, then take a three-game series at Dodger Stadium, and close it out in Game 6 at home. 'Would I be shocked if they got swept? No, because they're going to face four Cy Young Award [contenders],' Scout 1 said. 'But if the Brewers get one of those games at home to start the series, I think they win in six.'
Originally reported by nypost.