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With Week 3 of the college football season in the books, the Big Ten conference has seen a mix of expected outcomes and surprising turns. Most teams have wrapped up their non-conference schedules, with only a handful still to complete their out-of-conference matchups this coming weekend. The majority of non-conference games last week were lopsided victories over overmatched opponents, providing little insight into the true strength of the conference. However, a few exceptions stood out, including a couple of conference clashes and non-conference battles against Power Four foes.
Unfortunately for the Big Ten, those Power Four non-conference games did not go in their favor. Maryland suffered its first non-conference loss since 2019, while Rutgers remains winless on the season after dropping all three of its games. Despite these setbacks, nearly every Big Ten team managed to score at least 34 points in their respective games, with Rutgers and Purdue both reaching that mark even in defeat. The only exceptions were Michigan State, which mustered just 10 points against Notre Dame, and Maryland, which scored 26 against Virginia Tech.
Poll Positions
The latest AP and Coaches polls reflect the shifting fortunes of Big Ten teams. Seven conference teams appear in the AP Top 25, while eight are ranked in the Coaches Poll. Indiana leads the way at No. 5 in the AP and No. 4 in the Coaches, despite a one-spot drop in the AP. Ohio State sits at No. 7 in both polls, also down one spot. USC is No. 12 in both, slipping one place in the Coaches. Penn State moved up to No. 13 in the AP and No. 14 in the Coaches, gaining a spot in each. Iowa climbed two spots in the AP to No. 17 and three in the Coaches to No. 17. Michigan rose one spot to No. 18 in both polls. Oregon is No. 20 in the AP and No. 16 in the Coaches, up one and two spots respectively. Washington is ranked No. 23 in the Coaches Poll, up one, but remains just outside the AP Top 25 at No. 26. UCLA and Nebraska are receiving votes in both polls, while Northwestern is garnering votes in the Coaches Poll.
Composite Rankings
The Massey Composite Rankings, which incorporate a variety of rating systems, show significant movement for several Big Ten teams. Northwestern and Wisconsin made the biggest jumps this week. Northwestern's win over Colorado propelled them upward, while Wisconsin's 44-point victory over Eastern Michigan moved them up nine places, though the merit of that leap is debatable. Wisconsin's next opponent, Minnesota, also climbed six spots. Michigan State, despite losing to Notre Dame, moved up two places, likely because they kept the game close (trailing by only seven at halftime) and held the Fighting Irish to their lowest point total of the season (27). Rutgers also saw a slight uptick despite falling to USC. Since the preseason, UCLA has made the largest climb (+26), followed by Michigan State (+18), Northwestern (+15), Nebraska (+12), and Maryland (+10). On the flip side, Illinois (-15), Minnesota (-12), Oregon (-17), Rutgers (-50), and Washington (-14) have all dropped at least ten places since the preseason.
SP+ and F+ Analysis
Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings, which include all college football teams from FBS to NAIA, show that most Big Ten teams improved this week. Ohio State leads the way at No. 1, followed by Indiana at No. 4, Oregon at No. 5, and USC at No. 8. Penn State is No. 12, Iowa No. 18, Michigan No. 21, Nebraska No. 23, and Washington No. 27. Illinois made a notable jump of 14 spots to No. 33, while UCLA fell two spots to No. 40. Maryland dropped five to No. 43, Northwestern fell two to No. 44, and Minnesota rose four to No. 51. Wisconsin climbed ten spots to No. 56, while Michigan State fell five to No. 65. Purdue and Rutgers rounded out the conference at No. 75 and No. 77, respectively. It's worth noting that early-season SP+ rankings still rely heavily on previous season data, but as the season progresses, current performance carries more weight.
The F+ metric, a combination of Brian Fremeau's FEI and Connelly's SP+, provides another lens. Rutgers and Washington have experienced the steepest declines since the end of last season, dropping 20 and 12 places respectively. Conversely, seven Big Ten teams have improved by more than ten spots, led by UCLA's impressive +48 jump. Not coincidentally, Rutgers and Washington also saw their offensive rankings plummet by at least ten places. Five teams have shown significant offensive improvement: UCLA (+66), Maryland (+46), Purdue (+44), and Wisconsin (+36). UCLA's defense has also improved (+27), as have Nebraska (+20), Penn State (+15), and Michigan (+14). Purdue's defense is the only one that dropped more than ten places. Special teams rankings have fluctuated, with Michigan State, Minnesota, and USC making the biggest gains, while Maryland, Rutgers, UCLA, and Wisconsin have fallen the most. Washington's special teams rank is down slightly, but many fans would argue the unit has improved; the current ranking may be influenced by last year's data, and improvement is expected as the kickers and punter find consistency.
Win Projections and Week 4
ESPN's FPI has updated its win projections for all FBS teams. Indiana leads the Big Ten with a projected 10.5 wins, unchanged from last week. Penn State is close behind at 10.1, up 0.2. Ohio State is projected for 9.7 wins, down 0.4. USC and Michigan are both at 8.3 and 8.2 wins, respectively, with USC down 0.3 and Michigan unchanged. Nebraska is at 8.2, down 0.1, while Iowa is at 8.1, up 0.3. Oregon is at 8.2, up 0.4. Northwestern saw the largest increase, jumping to 6.9 wins, up 1.4. UCLA is at 7.6, up 0.2. Washington is at 6.2, down 0.1, and Wisconsin is at 6.1, up 0.4. Maryland is at 5.8, down 0.5, Michigan State at 5.7, down 0.3, Minnesota at 4.5, up 0.2, Purdue at 3.2, down 0.7, and Rutgers at 2.1, unchanged. Most teams saw minimal changes, with Northwestern being the notable exception.
Looking ahead to Week 4, all Big Ten teams are in action, with most starting conference play. Several games are expected to be closely contested, including Iowa-Michigan, Oregon-USC, and UCLA-Maryland. There are two non-conference games: Rutgers is heavily favored to secure its first win against Howard, while Purdue faces a tough test at home against Notre Dame. As the season progresses, these games will provide valuable data on the true strength of each team.
Final Notes
It's still early, and non-conference play has already produced some surprising results. This weekend's games, especially conference matchups, should shed more light on the pecking order. UCLA and USC are currently 1-0 in conference play, but USC's defense struggled in its win and could be tested by Oregon this week. Purdue played UCLA close in the first half before the Bruins pulled away; it remains to be seen whether Purdue is legitimately improved or if UCLA has vulnerabilities that better teams can exploit. For Washington, this weekend's game is a must-win, and the team needs to show improvement to avoid a difficult season. ESPN's FPI favors UW in only one more game after this weekend (at Purdue), while Massey has them favored in just two (at Purdue and at Michigan State). A convincing win could boost confidence for the rest of the conference slate.
Originally reported by yahoo.