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When Cal and Stanford meet on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. in Berkeley for the annual Big Game, the stakes and trajectories of the two programs look nothing like what preseason predictions suggested. The Cardinal, picked to finish last in the ACC, have already surpassed their win total from any season since 2018, while the Golden Bears, expected to contend for a bowl berth, have dropped four consecutive games and are reeling at 3-7.
Cal general manager Ron Rivera, who hired head coach Tosh Lupoi to a five-year contract, is surely monitoring the situation closely. Lupoi is unlikely to be dismissed after just one year, but Rivera will be watching intently to see how the Bears perform against their archrivals. Meanwhile, Stanford's first-year head coach, Tavita Pritchard, has drawn praise for guiding the Cardinal to a 5-5 record and a tie for seventh place in the ACC. Pritchard was seen sharing a long embrace with general manager Andrew Luck after Stanford's 40-22 upset of Virginia Tech last Saturday.
The contrast is stark. Cal was expected to boast an explosive offense with the return of quarterback Sagapolutele, the addition of running back Adam Mohammed and wide receivers Chase Hendricks and Ian Strong, plus three returning starters on the offensive line. Instead, the Bears are averaging just 20.4 points per game, and two of their 25 touchdowns have come from the defense. In ACC play, Cal is putting up only 14.3 points per contest—a figure that drops to 12.3 when defensive scores are removed. Stanford, not known for offensive fireworks, is averaging 22.3 points per game overall and 20.7 in conference games.
Statistically, Stanford quarterback Warren has outperformed his Cal counterpart. Warren has thrown for 14 touchdowns against three interceptions, averaging 240.6 passing yards per game with a passer rating of 131.1. Sagapolutele has 11 touchdown passes and eight interceptions, averaging 210.2 yards per game with a rating of 126.9. Warren is 5-5 as a starter, while Sagapolutele is 2-6. While Warren benefits from a stronger offensive line and running game, the numbers still highlight the disparity.
Cal's recent struggles have been historic. The Bears have lost their last four games by a combined 123 points—the largest four-game margin in program history. They have been outscored 83-0 in the second half of their last three games and have rushed for only 230 total yards over the past four contests. By comparison, Stanford's Micah Ford alone has rushed for 550 yards in the Cardinal's last four games, including 150 yards in last year's win over Cal.
Halfway through the season, Cal was 3-3 overall and 2-1 in the ACC, and it seemed the Bears could at least count on a victory over Stanford, which was then 2-4 and 0-3 in conference play. Now, a Cal loss on Saturday would eliminate the Bears from bowl eligibility for the fourth straight year, while a Stanford win would secure a bowl berth for the first time in eight years. A bowl game was considered the baseline for Cal this season; for Stanford, it seemed like a pipe dream.
Even if Cal wins its final two games against Stanford and Pitt, the best the Bears could do is tie Stanford in the standings, and that might not be enough to finish ahead of the Cardinal, who close out against Cal and SMU. The Big Game will thus serve as a stark reflection of how much has changed since the season began.
Key Analysis
The reversal of fortunes between Cal and Stanford has been one of the most surprising storylines of the college football season. Stanford's resurgence under Pritchard, coupled with Cal's dramatic collapse under Lupoi, has turned the Big Game into a pivotal moment for both programs. For Cal, a win would salvage some pride and keep faint bowl hopes alive, while a loss would cement a disappointing first year under Lupoi. For Stanford, a victory would cap an unexpected turnaround and likely send the Cardinal to a bowl game, a feat that seemed improbable just months ago. The pressure is squarely on Cal to stop its skid, but Stanford enters the rivalry with momentum and confidence.
Originally reported by headtopics.