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Arch Manning began the 2026 college football season as the preseason Heisman Trophy favorite and the early frontrunner to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. However, after two consecutive losses, serious doubts have emerged about whether he will even retain his starting role with the Texas Longhorns.
On Thursday, college football analyst Josh Pate was asked whether Saturday's matchup against No. 7 Ole Miss could be Manning's final start for Texas. While Pate did not definitively say it would be, he also did not dismiss the possibility, stating that Manning is on thin ice.
Struggles and Turnovers
Texas has dropped two straight games, both by a 27-24 margin, and Manning has committed a costly late turnover in each. Against Oklahoma, his interception with 19 seconds remaining set up the game-winning field goal. A week later, his late fumble sealed a loss to Florida after Texas had squandered a 17-3 lead.
Through six games, Manning has thrown for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions, and he has surpassed 250 passing yards only twice. The Longhorns are now 4-2 overall, 1-2 in SEC play, and ranked No. 19 in the AP Poll.
After the Florida loss, head coach Steve Sarkisian said everything will be evaluated and did not rule out a change at quarterback. The team has started giving backup KJ Lacey Jr. more first-team reps in practice. However, Sarkisian also defended his quarterback this week, describing Manning as edgy and saying that at some point, he has to fight back.
Analyst's Assessment
As Texas prepares for the crucial game against Ole Miss, Pate expressed skepticism that Manning will get many more opportunities if things do not go well on Saturday. "I feel weird even talking like that, but the answer might be yes. The answer is, he is on thin ice," Pate said on ESPN's Get Up, via On3. "Even Steve Sarkisian has had to sort of acknowledge that they're giving K.J. Lacey some first team reps, but then again, he always takes first team reps. I trust the reporting around that program that you're probably on thin ice and needing to make a move there."
Pate also noted that Manning already had an ideal chance to rebound last week but failed to capitalize. "You mentioned the optimum phrase there bounce back. Wasn't that last week too, though? Last week, against a pass defense in the 100s in the Florida Gators," Pate said. "That was the perfect bounce back. I want to say they had like five total passes completed beyond the line of scrimmage. That was the opportunity."
Compared to the Florida game, Pate believes Ole Miss will present a much tougher challenge, and he predicts that Texas will need Manning to make plays. "Ole Miss comes in this week and here's the difference between last week and this week; you can get beat this week, but they may make you trade points to keep up with them," Pate said. "Florida last week took some assistance on your end. You can play good and Trinidad Chambliss can beat you. Again, without a good running game, this falls on the shoulders of Arch Manning."
A loss on Saturday would give Texas its first three-game losing streak since 2021 and would almost certainly eliminate the Longhorns from College Football Playoff contention.
Originally reported by yahoo.