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July 1 isnt just an important day on the NHL calendar for the 2026 free agent class its also the first day 2027 free agents are eligible to sign extensions.
The market is changing in a rising-cap world.
Salaries are trending up.
So is player movement, with an uptick in trades in the early phases of the offseason.
Some of thats fueled by more empowerment, with players starting to take control of their futures.
Advertisement As much as the environment evolves, one thing is likely to stay the same: teams taking a proactive approach with star talent.
Few franchise-caliber players actually make it to unrestricted free agency.
Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, Jack Eichel, Artemi Panarin, Martin Necas and Kyle Connor headlined the 2026 class, but not one will be available this year on July 1.
In 2025, Leon Draisaitl, Mikko Rantanen, Sidney Crosby, Shea Theodore, Victor Hedman, Jaccob Slavin and Igor Shesterkin, among others, came off the board early too.
Teams generally try to take a proactive approach with their stars to 1) negotiate before market trends push costs to a new level, and 2) gain certainty around their top players and salary-cap outlook.
When players dont express interest in extending beyond the next season, it gives general managers time to start planning for that eventual exit.
Any trades involving those players can still lead to an early extension.
Kiefer Sherwood extended a few months early in San Jose after being traded from Vancouver.
Rantanen signed an extension when Dallas acquired him at the deadline last year.
So its already time to look ahead to the 2027 class.
What could those contracts look like? Keep in mind, theres one catch unique to this season: if any players want an eighth year on their deal, it has to be signed before the new CBA kicks in in September 2026.
The maximum will be capped at seven years moving forward.
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche The 2027 free-agent class is headlined by a lot of star power, including two of the best defensemen in the world.
Makar and Quinn Hughes are unicorns and could reset the defense market with their next contracts, with deals in the echelon of other MVP-caliber players.
Whoever signs first could set the tone for the other.
Advertisement The intention, according to president and general manager Joe Sakic, is to get a Makar extension done this summer.
With a statement like Cale is going to finish his career here after the season ended, a maximum deal could be on the horizon.
The cost is where things get really interesting, because the cap is projected to rise to $113.5 million in Year 1 of his next contract and hes worth every penny he could ask for.
When accounting for that year-to-year cap growth, Makar is projected to be worth over $20 million-plus per season on an eight-year deal.
Between his elite game, rising costs around the middle class and this empowerment era, Makar could push for that.
But stars generally sign below their market values.
Nathan MacKinnon did just that on his last contract in Colorado, so maybe it sets a precedent for his teammate.
MacKinnons $12.6 million AAV took up 15.1 percent of the cap during its first season in 2023-24.
That equates to $17.1 million in a $113.5 million cap.
But Makar could sign for even less than that; AFP Analytics projects a slightly more down-to-earth cap hit of $15.1 million.
Quinn Hughes, Minnesota Wild With the Kirill Kaprizov contract, which carries a $17 million AAV, the Wild have already shown a willingness to invest heavily in their stars.
Hughes could ask for the same amount hed be worth it, with a projected market value of $18 million over the next eight years.
Its just a dramatic leap, which is more than double his current earnings.
Consider $18 million the ceiling, unless Makar signs first and sets the bar higher.
While the dollars and cents are the bigger variable for Makar, the term may be for Hughes.
If he doesnt push for a maximum value contract in length, maybe that betters his chances of signing closer to his market value, with a $17-18 million cap hit.
While that contract would age better, there would still be risk from the Wilds side of the equation.
Say Hughes pushes for a three-year deal that allows him to cash in for one more splashy contract; that would line up with his brother Jack Hughes hitting the market at the same time.
After investing so much in bringing in a true No.
1 defenseman, and this window overall, Minnesota may want a little bit more security.
The Wilds chances of winning may be in the front half of his next contract, with their core ages in mind, but a five-year window is obviously more ideal.
That would be the most fitting middle ground here, no matter the cost.
Advertisement Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning While the Lightning werent willing to sign Steven Stamkos early and ultimately let him walk as a free agent, the team did sign the rest of its core players a year early.
Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman and Brandon Hagel all had extensions in place a full offseason before their last contracts expired.
So it wouldnt be surprising to see management take that same route with its most valuable player.
The difference between Kucherov and Hughes or Makar, however, is that he is at a slightly later stage in his career.
He will be 34 years old by the next time his contract kicks in, and while he hasnt shown any signs of slowing down just yet with back-to-back MVP-caliber seasons, it does change the conversation a bit.
AFP Analytics projects a two-year extension with a $1 million AAV.
Kucherov should be worth well beyond that at this rate.
His market value is $18 million over the next three seasons.
Extend the contract out by another few years, and that number isnt expected to change.
So it wouldnt be entirely surprising for his next deal to carry a little more term.
The benefit of going, say, four years, is that Tampa Bay wouldnt have to worry about the risk of a 35-plus contract that stays on the books in case he retires early.
The more years the Lightning add, the further Kucherovs next cap hit is likely to be from his true value.
Nico Hischier, New Jersey Devils The Athletics Pierre LeBrun reported that all signs point to a Hischier extension in New Jersey.
There was just an initial disconnect on contract length the Devils wanted a long-term deal, while the player pushed for something shorter.
The middle ground seems like the most likely outcome now.
An eight-year projection for Hischier carries an $11.5 million cap hit.
As much as salaries are exploding in todays NHL, the fact Jack Eichel signed for $13.5 million and Connor McDavid is staying at a $12.5 million AAV starting this season could help New Jersey keep costs in check.
It makes sense why the Devils would want more long-term security for such a pivotal player.
But the shorter the contract is, the more likely Hischier is to play up to the value of it if he reaches the $11 million-plus tier.
Aging-related declines are inevitable, and some of Hischiers comps, like Ryan Kesler, Jonathan Toews and Joe Pavelski, all add weight to that down the line.
Its fair to anticipate Hischiers game to trend down by Year 6 and beyond of a new contract, so anything capped at five or six years could actually end up aging better for the Devils.
Advertisement Alex DeBrincat, Detroit Red Wings A rising tide lifts all boats, so the Necas, Connor and Kempe contracts should all benefit DeBrincat.
Kempes contract carries the lowest AAV of the three and will take up 10.1 percent of the cap this season.
That shakes out to $11.6 million in 2027-28 with an $113.5 million cap.
Connors $12 million cap hit would be comparable to an $13.1 million salary.
AFP Analytics projects something in between: a seven-year deal carrying a $12.2 million AAV.
The real question, in his situation, is where that contract will be signed.
The Red Wings clearly need his scoring ability and play-driving.
But the Dylan Larkin situation could change the Red Wings timeline.
If it forces Detroit to reset and take a step back, it may not make as much sense to sign a 29-year-old to a contract of that value.
It may not make sense for DeBrincat to extend there, either.
This is not to say DeBrincat is on his way out of Detroit.
Its that both sides have options here.
Players capable of scoring 40 goals dont grow on trees in the NHL, so there will be demand if hes available.
This situation will likely take more time and depend on how the chips fall around Larkin first.
Bowen Byram, Buffalo Sabres The Blackhawks invested heavily in Byram last week in a pretty controversial trade that sent the No.
4 pick to Buffalo.
Chicago didnt spend all that for one year of Byram; the next logical step is an extension.
But the price is where things get even trickier.
Byram, as it stands, doesnt project to be top-pair-caliber over the life of a long-term contract.
He also hasnt had the opportunity to prove he can level up to that, with Makar and Rasmus Dahlin ahead of him in Colorado and Buffalo.
Even though Byram doesnt have a track record as a No.
1, he is about to get paid like one.
AFP Analytics projects a $9.5 million cap hit.
Scott Powers wrote that the number could be the $10 million-plus range.
The higher the number, the more risk this contract will carry, since there are so many unknowns around what he will do in a more meaningful role.
Theres a chance he can live up to that AAV, especially if he follows in Josh Morrisseys footsteps.
But if he proves to be a Brandon Montour, who best fits in a second-pair capacity, the contract could quickly look like an overpayment.
Advertisement Mark Stone, Vegas Golden Knights The next tier of free agents features aging stars and secondary players.
At 34, Stone is still incredibly effective on both ends of the ice.
Some of his comps Joe Thornton, Patrice Bergeron and Joe Pavelski proved high-level players can defy traditional aging curves and progress more gracefully than expected.
At his best, Stone could still be worth $14 million for the next four seasons ..
when hes healthy.
That when has done a lot of heavy lifting over the years in Vegas, and it adds another element of uncertainty to his trajectory moving forward.
Add in the context of players like Eichel taking less to stay in Vegas, and Stone likely wont get maximum value on his next contract.
Instead, the most likely outcome is him staying in a similar realm cap-wise to his current deal.
A shorter-term extension with a $9.5 million AAV could age well.
Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins Another player bound to stay in the same range is Crosby, who has carried an $8.7 million cap hit in every single season of his career since his entry-level contract.
Hes always been worth more than that, and will likely still be worth more at 40 years old in 2027-28.
His market value for that season is $12.1 million.
If hes still playing at 41 in 2028-29, his projected value currently sits at $10.4 million.
But no matter Crosbys true value, $8.7 million is the sweet spot, and that likely isnt changing anytime soon.
Artturi Lehkonen, Colorado Avalanche The Avalanche are planning on talking contract extensions with Lehkonen later this summer.
This one should be interesting because his role isnt as front-and-center as some of the aforementioned players, but he clearly has a ton of value as a complement to MacKinnon.
Chris Kunitz and Bryan Rust as comps feel all too fitting; theyre blueprints for the ultimate supporting role alongside an elite center.
That foundation could give confidence in a contract in the $7-8 million range.
The risk for this type of winger, for a player who will be 32 on his next contract, is following the Ondrej Palat track.
Its going to be a balancing act for Colorados front office, especially after Lehkonen gained some leverage with the Jack Drury and Valeri Nichushkin trades.
Artem Zub, Ottawa Senators Zubs shutdown game isnt flashy by any means, and yet his absence was one of the most noticeable things about the Senators in Round 1.
Advertisement He was limited to just 7:44 of playoff action after getting injured in Game 1.
From that point on, Ottawa clearly missed its stabilizing presence on the back end.
Thats something he can lean on in contract negotiations.
The Senators just have two key hurdles to navigate: his age, since he will be 32 at the start of the 2027-28 season, and the market.
Last summer, the middle class of defensemen benefited the most from the rising cap, and that could help inflate Zubs next contract.
But how a shutdown defenseman ages on a multi-year deal at this point in their careers can be really unpredictable.
If Ottawa can get him closer to the $5 million range on a mid-range contract and keep him below his market value, he has a better chance of playing up to his next deal.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones, Dom Luszczyszyn, Natural Stat Trick, CapWages, PuckPedia and AFP Analytics.
This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.