Will St. Thomas Keep Rolling? Why This Summit League Final is a Must-Watch

The Summit League Championship game is set, and it features an exciting matchup between the St. Thomas Tommies and the Omaha Mavericks. Both teams have had impressive seasons and enter this game with high expectations. With an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Given their high-powered offenses and somewhat shaky defenses, we anticipate a fast-paced game with plenty of scoring opportunities.

This game presents an interesting case for wagering on the total points over 150.5. Let’s break down the teams, their performances this season, key players, and statistical trends that support this prediction.

Team Overviews

St. Thomas Tommies (24-9, 14-4 Summit League)

St. Thomas has been dominant throughout the season, boasting a 24-9 overall record and finishing with a 14-4 conference record. Offensively, they are one of the most efficient teams in the nation, ranking 15th in scoring (84.2 PPG in conference play) and 4th in field goal percentage (49.4%).

Their ability to shoot from deep is a major advantage—St. Thomas leads the Summit League in three-point shooting (40.2%), making them a constant threat beyond the arc.

In their semifinal victory, they forced 24 turnovers and converted them into 40 points off turnovers, a key factor in their dominant performance.

Key Players to Watch:

• Kendall Blue – Scored 21 points in the semifinals and has been a consistent scorer throughout the season.
• Carter Bjerke – Knocked down three triples in the last game, adding 15 points to help secure their finals spot.
• Andrew Rohde – The team’s leader in assists and a crucial playmaker.

Omaha Mavericks (21-12, 15-3 Summit League)

Omaha enters the final with a 21-12 overall record and a 15-3 conference record, making them one of the most formidable teams in the Summit League this season. They are coming off an explosive 100-75 semifinal win where they shot 59% from the field.

Omaha ranks 55th in the country in three-point shooting (36.6%) and 57th in overall efficiency, making them a well-balanced team offensively. Their ability to score at a high rate will play a key role in this matchup.

Key Players to Watch:

• Tony Osburn – Had a record-setting 30-point performance in the semifinals, hitting 8-of-9 from three-point range.
• Marquel Sutton – Contributed 19 points and 8 rebounds in their last game, making a strong impact in the paint.
• Frankie Fidler – One of their best all-around players, capable of facilitating and scoring efficiently.

Head-to-Head Matchups This Season

The Tommies and Mavericks have already faced off twice this season, with both matchups proving to be high-scoring affairs:

• January 23 at Omaha: Omaha won 89-78 (Total Points: 167)
• February 15 at St. Thomas: St. Thomas won 95-84 (Total Points: 179)

Both games comfortably surpassed the 150.5 total points line, suggesting a similar trend could occur in this championship showdown.

Key Factors Influencing the Game

1. Offensive Strengths

Both teams rank among the best offensive units in the Summit League:

• St. Thomas: Averages 84.2 points per game in conference play.
• Omaha: Averages over 80 points per game in conference play.

With two explosive offenses on the court, a high-scoring game is expected.

2. Defensive Struggles

Both teams have had difficulty stopping opponents:

• St. Thomas: Ranks 266th nationally in points allowed per game.
• Omaha: Ranks 273rd in points allowed per game.

Their defensive vulnerabilities make it likely that this game will be a shootout.

3. Three-Point Shooting

Both teams rely heavily on three-point shooting:

• St. Thomas: 40.2% from beyond the arc (Summit League leader).
• Omaha: 36.6% from three-point range.

Neither team defends the three particularly well, making perimeter shooting a significant factor.

4. Pace of Play

Both teams push the tempo offensively, which contributes to higher-scoring games. Expect a fast-paced contest with plenty of transition opportunities.

Prediction Models and Analysis

We analyzed five respected NCAA Basketball prediction models to see how they project this game:

1. KenPom: Predicts an 87-81 St. Thomas victory, totaling 168 points.
2. BartTorvik: Projects a 71% probability of the total surpassing 150.5 points.
3. ESPN BPI: Gives St. Thomas a 68% chance to win, favoring an uptempo style of play.
4. DRatings: Predicts a final score of 85-80, totaling 165 points.
5. TeamRankings: Suggests a final score of 88-82, totaling 170 points.

All five models suggest the total points will exceed 150.5, making the over pick a strong choice.

Final Prediction: Pick the Over 150.5 Total Points

After evaluating the stats, team trends, and prediction models, it’s clear that the total points over 150.5 is a smart play. Here’s why:

1. Past Matchups: The previous two meetings averaged 173 total points.
2. Elite Offenses: Both teams average over 80 PPG and shoot at a high percentage.
3. Weak Defenses: Both teams allow a high number of points per game.
4. Three-Point Barrage: With two elite three-point shooting teams facing off, expect plenty of deep shots and high-scoring runs.
5. Statistical Models Align: Multiple models project a total above 160 points, reinforcing the likelihood of an offensive showdown.

Projected Final Score:

• St. Thomas Tommies: 89
• Omaha Mavericks: 82
• Total Points: 171 (Over 150.5 hits comfortably)

Conclusion

The Summit League Championship between St. Thomas and Omaha is shaping up to be an offensive showcase. Both teams boast elite scoring ability and have defensive vulnerabilities, which sets the stage for a high-scoring contest. Given their past meetings, season trends, and predictive models, the over 150.5 total points is a strong play.

Expect an exciting battle with fast-paced action, sharp shooting, and a thrilling finish. Enjoy the game!

PICK: over 150.5 total points WIN