As we head into the final weekend of the regular NFL season, there’s a ton of action to unpack and some juicy betting opportunities on the table. Whether you’re looking at the total points in Buffalo vs. Liberty or thinking about taking the Browns +20 against the Ravens, there’s a little bit of everything this weekend. I’ve got your back with a breakdown of some of the top picks for Saturday, Jan. 4th and Sunday, Jan. 5th across both College Football and the NFL. Let’s dive in!
College Football & NFL Picks for Saturday, Jan. 4th
Buffalo vs Liberty Under 51
Both teams have demonstrated solid defensive capabilities throughout the season. Buffalo’s defense has allowed an average of 29.4 points per game, while Liberty’s defense has been slightly more stringent, conceding 23.2 points per game.
Here’s where things get interesting: Injuries and roster changes further support the under. Starting quarterback for Liberty, Kaidon Salter left for Colorado. Liberty is also dealing with other significant absences, including tight ends Bentley Hanshaw and Bo Burklow, both listed as questionable due to undisclosed injuries. Additionally, safety Caden Bodnar is out for the season with an undisclosed injury, and wide receiver Demario Copeland is sidelined with a lower-body injury. Buffalo also faces uncertainties, with wide receivers Tyrell Simmons Jr. and Bodhi Ogg listed as questionable due to undisclosed injuries. These offensive setbacks could disrupt both teams’ scoring abilities, making a high-scoring game less likely. Considering these factors, the under 51 points seem like the play.
Browns +20 vs Ravens
Historically, NFL games with such large spreads are uncommon, and underdogs often perform better than expected in these scenarios. The Browns, despite their 3-13 record, have shown resilience in divisional games, and a +20 point cushion provides a substantial margin.
While the Ravens are vying for the AFC North title and are favored to win, the Browns’ recent quarterback change to Bailey Zappe could introduce an element of unpredictability to their offense. Additionally, the Ravens may opt to rest key starters if they secure a comfortable lead, potentially allowing the Browns to narrow the score gap. Considering these factors, the Browns +20 bet offers value in this divisional matchup.
NFL Picks for Sunday, Jan. 5th
Panthers vs Falcons -8
The Panthers are dealing with significant injuries, including the absence of key defensive players such as cornerback Jaycee Horn (hip) and linebacker D.J. Johnson, who was involved in a car accident. These absences could hinder Carolina’s ability to contain Atlanta’s offense. The Falcons, with a 7-9 record against the spread (ATS) this season, have covered the spread as 7.5-point favorites or more in their previous attempt. Atlanta’s offense, led by quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and running back Bijan Robinson, has the potential to exploit the Panthers’ weakened defense. Given these factors, the Falcons are well-positioned to cover the -8 spread in this matchup.
Giants vs Eagles Over 37.5
Both teams have demonstrated offensive capabilities that suggest the potential for a higher-scoring game. The Eagles, boasting a 13-3 record, have been particularly effective on offense, looking at their stats on ATSWins, they’re averaging 27.7 points per game, ranking them seventh in the league. Their rushing attack is especially potent, leading the NFL with an average of 187.3 yards per game.
On the other hand, the Giants’ defense has shown vulnerabilities, allowing an average of 24.7 points per game, placing them 23rd in the league. Their run defense has been a significant concern, surrendering 141.6 rushing yards per game, which ranks 31st. This weakness could be exploited by the Eagles’ strong ground game. While the Giants’ offense has been less prolific, averaging 16.3 points per game, they may find opportunities against an Eagles defense that, despite its strengths, has shown occasional lapses. Nick Sirianni stated that he will rest Saquon Barkley and other key players. Considering these factors, the combined offensive strengths and defensive weaknesses point towards the likelihood of the total score exceeding 37.5 points in this matchup.
Texans (moneyline) vs Titans
Despite a rough finish to the season, the Houston Texans remain a solid pick to win outright against the Tennessee Titans in this Week 18 matchup. The Texans (9-7) are locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC as the AFC South champions but are looking to regain momentum after their blowout loss to Baltimore in Week 17. DeMeco Ryans has stated that his starters will play in this game but will likely rest several key players. He also said that it’s crucial for C.J. Stroud to find his rhythm before heading into the playoffs. ATSWins is showing Stroud has thrown for 3,677 yards and 19 touchdowns this season, which has been a key piece to Houston’s success. The Texans also boast a strong defense, with players like Derek Stingley Jr. anchoring the secondary and Will Anderson Jr. providing a pass-rushing presence.
Tennessee (3-13), on the other hand, has struggled all season and is in a position where they have little to gain from this game except for improving their draft position. However, the Titans are 2-14 against the spread this season and 0-4 as favorites, making them a risky proposition in this spot. Houston has shown it can still compete, and with a much stronger roster and motivation to finish strong, the Texans are the better team and should be able to secure the win on the moneyline in this matchup.
Josh Jacobs RB Over 64.5 yards
Josh Jacobs is a strong play to go over 64.5 rushing yards in this Week 18 matchup against the Bears. The Packers have relied heavily on Jacobs throughout the season, particularly in recent weeks, as they look to establish a consistent ground game. Jacobs has been averaging 17.3 carries per game in his last five outings and has surpassed 64.5 yards in four of those contests. He’s not only been a volume back, but he’s also shown the ability to break off big runs, averaging 4.4 yards per carry this season. With Green Bay needing to balance their offense and control the clock against a Bears team that has struggled defensively, Jacobs should see enough opportunities to hit the over.
Bonus Pick: Joe Burrow under 39.5 pass attempts
Despite Joe Burrows impressive arm talent and ability to throw the ball deep, he has often been effective in managing games and using a balanced attack with the Cincinnati Bengals. In fact, over the last few weeks, Burrow has regularly stayed well under 39.5 pass attempts, with most of his games hovering closer to 30-35 attempts. Cincinnati is expected to control the game with a mix of run plays and short-to-medium passes, meaning Burrow will likely stay under the 39.5 mark. This number is set high based on his ability to throw a lot, but the Bengals’ strategy and game flow should favor the under.
I’ll be back next weekend for the Wild Card NFL games, where the intensity of playoff football is at an all-time high. Be sure to check in for all the latest picks, analysis, and predictions at ATSWins as we dive into the matchups and break down everything you need to know to bet with confidence!
