With the college season winding down and playoff hopes on the line in the NFL, there’s no shortage of exciting matchups this weekend. Let’s jump into the best bets for December 14th and 15th.
Here are six bold predictions to keep you one step ahead in the action.
College Football Picks for Saturday, Dec. 14th
Jackson State vs. South Carolina State – Over 53.5
Jackson State’s offense has been electric this season, averaging an impressive 39 points per game in FCS play. South Carolina State isn’t far behind, posting 37.6 points per game. While these stats alone make the over 53.5 points intriguing, recent trends make it even more compelling. If you look at their last four games on ATSWins, the Tigers have upped their scoring to 39.4 points per game, while the Bulldogs have exploded for 47.6 points per game in their last five.
The Celebration Bowl itself provides historical support for the over. Played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, this high-stakes championship often brings out aggressive play-calling and explosive offensive performances. Over the last four years, the Celebration Bowl has averaged 59 total points. With these trends and the stakes in mind, the over feels like a strong play.
Army vs. Navy – Under 39
If you’re a seasoned bettor, you know service academy games and the Under go together like peanut butter and jelly. Since the 2006-07 season, the under is a jaw-dropping 45-10-1 in these matchups, cashing 82% of the time. Why? No one defends the triple-option offense better than another service academy. With players who train for years to counter this unique scheme, these games turn into grind-it-out slugfests filled with four yard runs and ticking clocks.
This year, the total is set at 39, notably higher than last year’s record-low total of 28. While both teams have improved offenses, the Army with AAC-championship-winning Bryson Daily and Navy with dual-threat Blake Horvath—recent history shows this game hasn’t hit 39 points in their last ten meetings. With Army seeking to retain the Commander-in-Chief Trophy and Navy looking to spoil their season, this game promises the classic clock-draining, low-scoring battle we’ve come to expect.
South Alabama vs. Western Michigan – Jalen Buckley Over 58.5 Rushing Yards
Western Michigan boasts a crowded backfield, but Jalen Buckley has emerged as their go-to option since returning from injury in Week 7. Over that span, he’s led the team in carries (92) and rushing yards (550) while showcasing strong metrics like 4.1 yards after contact per attempt and 16 forced missed tackles. Buckley’s consistent production, including eclipsing 58.5 rushing yards in nine of his last 13 games, makes him a great bet for Saturday.
Adding to the appeal is Western Michigan’s efficient rushing attack, ranking 33rd in EPA per play and 18th in rushing explosiveness. South Alabama’s run defense struggles with big plays, ranking 109th in explosiveness allowed and 121st in tackling. Buckley should find plenty of opportunities to gash this defense and clear his rushing yardage total.
NFL Picks for Sunday, Dec. 15th
Jets (-3.5) vs. Jaguars
The Jets 2024 campaign has been underwhelming at 3-10, but they have the tools to cover the 3.5-point spread against the Jaguars. If Aaron Rodgers suits up, his experience and leadership could provide a spark. Rodgers has thrown for 2,966 yards, 20 touchdowns, and eight interceptions this season. Meanwhile, Breece Hall has been productive with 692 rushing yards and another 401 receiving, giving the offense a dynamic weapon.
Defensively, the Jets have regressed but still feature standout players like Will McDonald IV and Quinnen Williams. The key to covering lies in establishing the ground game with Hall and controlling the tempo. If the defense can limit Jacksonville’s clock management, the Jets have a real shot at securing a rare win.
Steelers (ML) vs. Eagles
The Steelers present a nightmare matchup for the Eagles, who haven’t faced a defense of Pittsburgh’s caliber all season. Philadelphia’s recent schedule has included some of the league’s worst defenses, but the Steelers rank fifth in EPA allowed per play. Timing couldn’t be worse for Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, whose recent struggles both on and off the field have hurt the team.
Looking at ATSWins prediction of the game you’ll notice the percentage of tickets vs money shows the sharps are backing the Steelers. The Steelers have been in one-possession battles all year and play with a toughness that could throw the Eagles off their rhythm. Back Pittsburgh’s defense and Tomlin’s coaching to pull off the upset.
Packers (-2.5) vs. Seahawks
This matchup could come down to the elements, with wind projections varying wildly. A windy game would favor the Packers, who have the stronger ground attack and a resurgent Jordan Love. Love has played turnover-free football for three straight games, the longest streak of his career, and should be at full health after earlier injuries.
Green Bay’s extra rest gives them a preparation edge, while Seattle struggles to maintain consistency. If the wind materializes, look for the Packers to lean on their superior run game and grind out a win, covering the 2.5-point spread.
Bonus Pick: James Cook (BUF) – Rushing Yards Over 51.5
James Cook hitting the over on 51.5 yards looks like a solid pick, given the Buffalo Bills recent offensive tendencies and Cook’s consistent role in their ground attack. Cook is averaging 60.3 rushing yards per game this season. Cook has surpassed this line in 3 of the last 6 games and has been particularly effective when the Bills play in cold-weather conditions, where the running game typically sees an uptick in usage
Six picks for this weekend, all set to help you cash in. The analysis is wrapped up, now it’s time to get your bets locked in before the games start. Once you’ve got everything in place, relax and enjoy the action. Good luck, and I’ll be back next week with more picks to keep things rolling
