The SEC Tournament’s 2nd Round on March 13, 2025, features a compelling matchup between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Missouri Tigers at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. Both teams have had notable seasons, and this game is poised to be a thrilling contest.
Team Standings and Recent Performance
Mississippi State enters the tournament with a 20-10 overall record and an 8-9 mark in SEC play, placing them 9th in the conference. Their season has been characterized by strong offensive performances, averaging 79.2 points per game, ranking 60th nationally. Defensively, they allow 73.6 points per game, placing them 229th nationally. The Bulldogs have faced a challenging schedule, with a strength of schedule (SOS) rating of 11.87, reflecting the quality of their opponents.
Missouri, on the other hand, boasts a 21-10 overall record and a 10-8 record in SEC play, tying them for 7th place in the conference. The Tigers have been an offensive powerhouse, averaging 84.5 points per game, ranking 8th nationally. However, their defense has been less robust, allowing 73.2 points per game. Missouri’s effective field goal percentage stands at 48.7%, indicating efficient shooting. Their strength of schedule has been formidable, facing multiple ranked opponents throughout the season.
Key Players and Contributions
Mississippi State’s offense is spearheaded by freshman guard Josh Hubbard, who averages 18.3 points per game with a field goal percentage of 39.2% and an impressive free-throw percentage of 88.5%. His scoring ability has been pivotal for the Bulldogs. Forward KeShawn Murphy contributes significantly in the paint, averaging 7.5 rebounds per game, providing the team with second-chance opportunities and defensive stability.
Missouri’s attack is led by Mark Mitchell, who averages 14.3 points per game with a remarkable field goal percentage of 50.9%. His efficiency makes him a constant threat on the offensive end. Caleb Grill has been a significant contributor off the bench, averaging 16 points in victories but only 5.0 in defeats, highlighting his impact on the team’s success. Guards Anthony Robinson II and Tamar Bates add depth, averaging 9.2 and 12.8 points per game, respectively, and are known for their defensive prowess, each averaging over 1.0 steals per game.
Coaching Analysis
Mississippi State’s head coach, Chris Jans, is in his second season with the Bulldogs. He led the team to consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, showcasing his ability to maximize talent and implement effective game plans. Jans emphasizes a balanced approach, focusing on both offensive execution and defensive intensity.
Missouri’s head coach, Dennis Gates, is in his third season and has revitalized the program after a challenging previous season. He has successfully integrated new talent through recruiting and the transfer portal, leading to a significant turnaround. Gates’ offensive philosophy encourages fast-paced play and high scoring, while defensively, the team employs aggressive tactics to disrupt opponents.
Tempo and Style of Play
Missouri prefers an up-tempo style, reflected in their high scoring average and efficient shooting. They push the pace to create transition opportunities and capitalize on defensive mismatches. Mississippi State, while also capable offensively, tends to control the game’s tempo, focusing on half-court sets and utilizing their rebounding strength to limit opponents’ possessions.
Three-Point Shooting
Missouri’s offense heavily relies on three-point shooting, with Caleb Grill being a key contributor in this aspect. Their ability to stretch the floor poses challenges for defenses. Mississippi State’s perimeter defense will need to be vigilant to contest these shots effectively.
Rebounding Battle
Mississippi State holds an advantage in rebounding, averaging 35.8 per game, ranking 23rd nationally. This edge allows them to control the boards and limit second-chance points for opponents. Missouri averages 31.1 rebounds per game, ranking 230th nationally, indicating a potential area of vulnerability.
Advanced Metrics and Predictions
According to KenPom ratings, Missouri ranks higher in offensive efficiency, while Mississippi State has a slight edge defensively. Both teams have faced rigorous schedules, with Missouri’s offensive metrics standing out.
Various respected NCAAB prediction models offer the following projections:
- KenPom: Missouri 85, Mississippi State 80
- Sagarin Ratings: Missouri 83, Mississippi State 78
- Torvik: Missouri 87, Mississippi State 82
- Haslametrics: Missouri 86, Mississippi State 81
- Bart Torvik: Missouri 84, Mississippi State 79
These models consistently favor Missouri by a margin of 4 to 5 points.
Betting Analysis
The current betting odds list Missouri as a 3.5-point favorite, with a moneyline of -130, while Mississippi State is at +105. The total for the game is set at 156.5 points.
Predicted Final Score
Considering both teams’ offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities, the projected final score is:
Missouri 88, Mississippi State 84
Confidence Level: Medium
Recommended Bet Type: Over 156.5 Total Points
Reasoning: Both teams have demonstrated high-scoring tendencies, and their defensive statistics suggest that a high total is plausible.
PICK: Total Points OVER 156.5 (WIN)
