Get ready for an exciting showdown in the MAC as the Toledo Rockets travel to face the Akron Zips on November 26, 2024. With Toledo aiming to solidify their bowl eligibility and bounce back from a recent loss, they’ll look to leverage their powerful offense against an Akron team that is eager to build on their recent victory. Both teams are dealing with key injuries, adding an extra layer of intrigue to this matchup. Will Toledo’s resilience shine through, or can Akron pull off an upset at home? Tune in for what promises to be a thrilling contest!
Team Overview
Toledo Rockets
- Record: 7-4 overall, 4-3 MAC
- Points per Game: 27.8 (Ranked 55)
- Points Allowed per Game: 21.4 (Ranked 48)
- Key Players Injured: Mike Drennen II, Lucas Laroche, Luke Pawlak, Matthew Bailey, Travion Ford, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Jadarrius Perkins
- Recent Performance: Lost to Ohio Bobcats (24-7)
Akron Zips
- Record: 3-8 overall, 2-5 MAC
- Points per Game: 20.4 (Ranked 114)
- Points Allowed per Game: 33.6 (Ranked 121)
- Key Players Injured: Alex Adams, Myles Walker, Jean Louis III, Laurance Seymore, Lama Lavea, Shammond Cooper
- Recent Performance: Won against Kent State Golden Flashes (38-17)
Betting Models and Predictions
Model Predictions
- Data Skrive Prediction: Toledo wins 28-23; Akron covers the spread (+7.5) and the total score is expected to be over (48.5).
- Sports Chat Place Prediction: Favoring Toledo to win against the spread due to Akron’s defensive struggles.
- VSiN Prediction: Toledo is favored (-8.5) with a total of 49; they expect Toledo to rally despite recent performance issues.
- Sports Betting Dime Prediction: Similar outlook as VSiN; Toledo is expected to win and cover the spread.
Average Score Prediction from Models
Based on the predictions:
- Average score from models:
- Toledo: 28+28+28÷3 =
- Akron: 23+20+20÷3 =
My Prediction
Using the Pythagorean theorem for scoring predictions:
Expected Wins = Points Scored²÷Points Scored2+Points Allowed²
For Toledo:
Expected Wins = 27.8²÷27.8²+21.4² ≈ 772.84÷772.84+457.96 ≈ 0.628
For Akron:
Expected Wins = 20.4²÷20.4²+33.6² ≈ 416.16÷416.16+1128.96 ≈ 0.269
Score Prediction
Combining model averages with my calculations:
- Toledo: Expected to score around 28
- Akron: Expected to score around 21
Key Factors Influencing the Game
- Injuries: Both teams have significant injuries that could affect performance.
- Motivation: Toledo has bowl eligibility secured but may lack motivation after losing their chance for a MAC title; Akron is playing for pride and potential job security for their coach.
Pick: Take the Akron Zips +8 points. ***WINNER***
