Tuesday, February 20, 2024 at 7:00pm ET at Reed Arena
A Tale of Two Teams Seeking Redemption: Arkansas vs. Texas A&M in a Pivotal SEC Clash
Both the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Texas A&M Aggies enter Tuesday night’s SEC matchup licking their wounds after disappointing losses. The Razorbacks (12-13, 3-9 SEC) are struggling to find their footing, currently sitting at 12th in the conference, while the Aggies (15-10, 6-6 SEC) are coming off a deflating defeat to then-No. 15 Alabama. With postseason hopes dwindling, this game takes on added significance, making it a must-win for both teams.
Data Sources
- Top 5 successful NCAA Basketball prediction models
- SportsLine
- KenPom
- ESPN BPI
- Massey Ratings
- Sagarin Ratings
- Famous models
- FiveThirtyEight
- Barttorvik
Factors considered
- Pythagorean theorem: Both teams’ offensive and defensive efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule.
- Strength of schedule: Based on each team’s performance against common opponents and overall schedule difficulty.
- Recent trends: Wins, losses, point differential, etc.
- Key player injuries: None reported for either team.
- Home court advantage: Texas A&M playing at home.
Analysis of Prediction Models
| Model | Arkansas ML | Texas A&M ML | Spread | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsLine | +425 | -578 | -9.5 | 146.5 |
| KenPom | 28% | 72% | -12.4 | 145.1 |
| ESPN BPI | 26% | 74% | -11.7 | 146.4 |
| Massey Ratings | 22% | 78% | -11.8 | 147.2 |
| Sagarin Ratings | 27% | 73% | -11.9 | 147.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight | 22% | 78% | -12.0 | 146.0 |
| Barttorvik | 24% | 76% | -11.0 | 146.2 |
Average Prediction
- Arkansas ML: 25%
- Texas A&M ML: 75%
- Spread: -11.4
- Over/Under: 146.5
Pythagorean Theorem Prediction
Based on adjusted efficiency and strength of schedule, the predicted score is Arkansas 68.7, Texas A&M 72.5. This suggests a close game with a slight edge to Texas A&M.
Razorbacks Battling Adversity: Can They Channel First-Meeting Heroics?
Arkansas’ season has been a rollercoaster ride, filled with flashes of brilliance followed by frustrating setbacks. Their latest heartbreak came against Mississippi State, where they squandered a late lead, falling 71-67. Despite their struggles, the Razorbacks boast a talented roster, led by the dynamic duo of Makhi Mitchell and Khalif Battle. Mitchell, averaging 19.2 points per game, is a scoring machine, while Battle’s sharpshooting (41.9% from three) keeps defenses honest.
In their first meeting with Texas A&M, the Razorbacks pulled off a thrilling 78-77 victory thanks to Tramon Mark’s buzzer-beater and a career-high 35 points. However, replicating that performance won’t be easy, especially on the road against a hungry Aggie team seeking revenge.
Aggies Aim to Reclaim Home Court Advantage After Stumbling
Texas A&M started the season with promise but have hit a rough patch, losing their last two games. Their most recent defeat against Alabama exposed their offensive woes, shooting a dismal 37.8% from the field. Despite the struggles, the Aggies possess a balanced attack, with Wade Taylor IV (13.4 ppg) leading the scoring charge and Tyrece Radford (12.1 ppg) providing a spark off the bench.
On the defensive end, Texas A&M boasts a physical presence, ranking 23rd in the nation in rebounding. They outrebounded Alabama by 11 boards in their last game, showcasing their strength on the glass. However, their inability to convert those rebounds into points has been a concern.
Why the Spread Favors Texas A&M (-10.5) and Why it Might Be the Smart Bet
Despite the close nature of their first meeting, several factors tilt the spread in favor of Texas A&M:
- Home Court Advantage: Reed Arena has been a fortress for the Aggies this season, boasting a 10-3 record on their home court. The electric atmosphere can provide a significant boost for Texas A&M.
- Motivational Edge: After two straight losses, the Aggies are hungry to get back on track and will be extra motivated to avenge their earlier defeat to Arkansas.
- Texas A&M’s Balanced Offense: While their shooting needs improvement, the Aggies have multiple scoring threats who can erupt on any given night. Arkansas, on the other hand, relies heavily on Mitchell and Battle’s offensive production.
Ultimately, the spread of -10.5 reflects the Aggies’ slight edge due to home-court advantage and their hunger to rebound after recent losses.
Pick: Texas A&M -10.5